Value
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.0x
ASND · Why this verdict
Why Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ascendis Pharma pairs 115% YoY growth with elite profitability (71% margins, 119% return on equity) and a wide moat, but cash conversion is a red flag at 2% FCF/net income and the stock is overbought with only 8.8% upside to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company shows excellent profitability, with a 119% return on equity, 71% margins, a wide economic moat (score 8.2) and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 50% and the quality score above 7.5/10 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 119% return on equity reflects a small or negative equity base and may be inflated by one-time items or a recent profit swing. | ||
Revenue is growing 115% YoY and the Rule of 40 reads an elite 116. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next 12 months as the launched products scale. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a very high growth rate off a small base for a biotech tends to decelerate sharply as the product base matures. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at only 2% of net income, so reported profits are barely converting to cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should rise above 50% of net income over the next 12 months to confirm earnings are real. | →Stable |
| CounterFast-growing biotechs often have large working-capital and inventory build ahead of sales, so low cash conversion may be a timing effect rather than a quality problem. | ||
Price is only 8.8% below the $273.50 analyst target while downside to the stop is 12.6%, a reward-to-risk of 0.70, and the stock is overbought at RSI 81. Estimated upside | Reward-to-risk should improve toward 1.5 after a pullback toward the $242.59 entry level or a higher analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is strong (6.7/10) with rising on-balance volume and institutions accumulating, so analyst targets may be raised before any pullback. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.1x, a value score of only 4.6/10, which requires growth to continue to justify the multiple. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should compress below 20x through earnings growth rather than price decline. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith 115% growth and 71% margins, a 25.1x forward multiple could prove cheap if growth persists even at half the current rate. | ||
The company shows excellent profitability, with a 119% return on equity, 71% margins, a wide economic moat (score 8.2) and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 50% and the quality score above 7.5/10 over the next 12 months.
CounterA 119% return on equity reflects a small or negative equity base and may be inflated by one-time items or a recent profit swing.
Revenue is growing 115% YoY and the Rule of 40 reads an elite 116.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next 12 months as the launched products scale.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a very high growth rate off a small base for a biotech tends to decelerate sharply as the product base matures.
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at only 2% of net income, so reported profits are barely converting to cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should rise above 50% of net income over the next 12 months to confirm earnings are real.
CounterFast-growing biotechs often have large working-capital and inventory build ahead of sales, so low cash conversion may be a timing effect rather than a quality problem.
Price is only 8.8% below the $273.50 analyst target while downside to the stop is 12.6%, a reward-to-risk of 0.70, and the stock is overbought at RSI 81.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Reward-to-risk should improve toward 1.5 after a pullback toward the $242.59 entry level or a higher analyst target.
CounterMomentum is strong (6.7/10) with rising on-balance volume and institutions accumulating, so analyst targets may be raised before any pullback.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.1x, a value score of only 4.6/10, which requires growth to continue to justify the multiple.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should compress below 20x through earnings growth rather than price decline.
CounterWith 115% growth and 71% margins, a 25.1x forward multiple could prove cheap if growth persists even at half the current rate.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.1 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 119%
- ▸Strong margins: 71%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 2% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 115% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $380,251 (0.002% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
Catalyst
2.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.83
Upside
+10.1%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.8<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.83.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.3, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.0, Technical at 3.7, and Value at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Triple Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 40% YoY from current 115%.
- P2Elite Profitability Wide Moat
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 40% from current 71%.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below 10% for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Thin Upside Overbought Chart
Trip ifReward-to-risk exceeds 1.5 from current 0.70.
- P5Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 35x from current 25.1x.