Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
ARCB · Why this verdict
Why ArcBest (ARCB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ArcBest offers 15.7% upside to the analyst target and excellent cash conversion, but weak quality, negative momentum, insider selling and an earnings report in 3 days keep it a speculative, unsized position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Operating margin has compressed to -3.6%, pushing the quality score to 3.6, below the 4.0 floor. Bear case | Operating margin returns above 0% within 12 months and quality recovers above 4.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTrucking margins swing with freight cycles, so a freight recovery could restore margins quickly. | ||
ArcBest converts earnings to cash at 909% FCF/net income and posts a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating financial resilience. Quality breakdown | FCF stays above net income and the Piotroski score holds at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 909% ratio is inflated by near-zero net income (net margin component 0.2), so it signals depressed earnings more than strong cash generation. | ||
Forward P/E is 13.1x with analyst upside of 33% before haircut, leaving 15.7% to the $145.16 target and reward-to-risk of 2.15. Sentiment breakdown | Price moves toward the $145.16 analyst target as forward estimates hold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMargin compression and negative operating margin of -3.6% mean forward estimates could be cut, making the valuation look cheaper than it is. | ||
Insiders sold $3.22M across 9 sales in 90 days with no purchases, a bearish signal ahead of earnings. Insider | Insider selling stops and net insider flow turns neutral or positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAt 0.115% of market cap the selling is minor and may be routine diversification. | ||
Momentum scores 2.6 with falling OBV (volume distribution), and earnings are due in 3 days, adding event risk to a weak trend. Momentum breakdown | Momentum rises above 4.5 after the November 4 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is still above its 200-day average and has beaten estimates in 3 of 4 quarters, so a positive report could reverse the weak trend. | ||
Operating margin has compressed to -3.6%, pushing the quality score to 3.6, below the 4.0 floor.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Operating margin returns above 0% within 12 months and quality recovers above 4.0.
CounterTrucking margins swing with freight cycles, so a freight recovery could restore margins quickly.
ArcBest converts earnings to cash at 909% FCF/net income and posts a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating financial resilience.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF stays above net income and the Piotroski score holds at 7 or higher.
CounterThe 909% ratio is inflated by near-zero net income (net margin component 0.2), so it signals depressed earnings more than strong cash generation.
Forward P/E is 13.1x with analyst upside of 33% before haircut, leaving 15.7% to the $145.16 target and reward-to-risk of 2.15.
↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $145.16 analyst target as forward estimates hold.
CounterMargin compression and negative operating margin of -3.6% mean forward estimates could be cut, making the valuation look cheaper than it is.
Insiders sold $3.22M across 9 sales in 90 days with no purchases, a bearish signal ahead of earnings.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stops and net insider flow turns neutral or positive.
CounterAt 0.115% of market cap the selling is minor and may be routine diversification.
Momentum scores 2.6 with falling OBV (volume distribution), and earnings are due in 3 days, adding event risk to a weak trend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum rises above 4.5 after the November 4 report.
CounterThe stock is still above its 200-day average and has beaten estimates in 3 of 4 quarters, so a positive report could reverse the weak trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 909% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,249,208 (0.040% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 3.9 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 2.6 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.61
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.31
Upside
+3.8%
Downside
12.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.73>1.3, MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.3<1.5@spot outcome against Momentum at 7.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.31.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.0, Sentiment at 6.9, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Quality at 3.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Conversion And Piotroski
Trip ifFCF/net income conversion falls below 100% or the Piotroski F-Score falls below 5.
- P2Analyst Upside Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from current 13.1x.
- P3Margin Compression Low Quality
Trip ifOperating margin stays below -3.6% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $10M over a 90-day window.
- P5Weak Momentum Near Earnings
Trip ifPrice falls below the $119.34 stop level, more than 4.9% below $125.44.