Value
8.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.43
- ▸Attractively valued
APO · Why this verdict
Why Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Apollo Global Management is a fast-growing asset manager (64% YoY growth, industry growth leader) at an attractive forward P/E of 10.9x with 14.6% upside to the analyst target, but it sits in a confirmed downtrend with credit-strategy concentration and moderate quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A high-severity concentration risk sits in the credit strategy product, and leverage is penalized at a debt-to-equity of 1.0, with a quality score of only 5.0. Bear case | Credit performance holds and the quality score rises above 6.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA credit-cycle downturn would hit the largest strategy and could pressure earnings, fees and the leveraged balance sheet. | ||
Apollo is growing 64% YoY, scoring 10/10 on revenue and earnings growth, and ranks as an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAsset manager growth depends on fundraising and market conditions, and 64% is hard to repeat on a larger base. | ||
Apollo trades at a forward P/E of 10.9x and a PEG of 0.44, an attractive valuation relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 14x while earnings continue to grow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA low multiple may reflect investor doubts about the durability of fee and performance income, particularly in a credit downturn. | ||
The $132.80 analyst target is 14.6% above the $115.84 price against 6.6% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 2.22. Targets | Price moves toward $132.80 while holding above the $108.22 stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterUpside is modest and the stock sits in a downtrend, so the target may not be reached if credit markets weaken. | ||
The price is below a falling 200-day average (slope -3.2% per 30 days) with falling on-balance volume and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.45. Momentum breakdown | The price reclaims the 200-day average and the put/call ratio falls below 1.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDistribution volume and heavy put buying show investors are hedging or exiting, which can extend the decline. | ||
A high-severity concentration risk sits in the credit strategy product, and leverage is penalized at a debt-to-equity of 1.0, with a quality score of only 5.0.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit performance holds and the quality score rises above 6.0.
CounterA credit-cycle downturn would hit the largest strategy and could pressure earnings, fees and the leveraged balance sheet.
Apollo is growing 64% YoY, scoring 10/10 on revenue and earnings growth, and ranks as an industry growth leader.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 4 quarters.
CounterAsset manager growth depends on fundraising and market conditions, and 64% is hard to repeat on a larger base.
Apollo trades at a forward P/E of 10.9x and a PEG of 0.44, an attractive valuation relative to its growth.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 14x while earnings continue to grow.
CounterA low multiple may reflect investor doubts about the durability of fee and performance income, particularly in a credit downturn.
The $132.80 analyst target is 14.6% above the $115.84 price against 6.6% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 2.22.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward $132.80 while holding above the $108.22 stop.
CounterUpside is modest and the stock sits in a downtrend, so the target may not be reached if credit markets weaken.
The price is below a falling 200-day average (slope -3.2% per 30 days) with falling on-balance volume and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.45.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price reclaims the 200-day average and the put/call ratio falls below 1.0.
CounterDistribution volume and heavy put buying show investors are hedging or exiting, which can extend the decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.9/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 1.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $422,535 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.1 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.50
- ▸Above max pain $89
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:95d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.69
Upside
+14.2%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of 1.69.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Sentiment at 7.1, and Momentum at 5.9; the weakest are Quality at 0.9, Peer rank at 2.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x without an increase in earnings estimates.
- P3Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $108.22 stop level.
- P4Credit Concentration Leverage
Trip ifDebt-to-equity rises above 1.5 from current 1.0.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Elevated Puts
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 2.0 while the price stays below the 200-day average.