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APLEApple Hospitality REIT, Inc.Sell4.4·$16.62-0.15%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Trading above its resistance-based price target with 10% short interest and an unfavorable risk/reward, the setup for Apple Hospitality REIT does not support new entry; exceptional free cash flow conversion and a strong balance sheet are real positives, but the absence of a competitive moat, stagnant recent earnings, and a fully-priced technical picture limit the near-term case.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Fcf Dividend SupportStable
  • Price Above Resistance TargetStable
  • Stagnant Earnings TrajectoryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. (APLE) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motel

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.62 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Marriott or Hilton brands.

Apple Hospitality REIT owns 217 hotels with 29,583 guest rooms across 37 states, substantially all operating under Marriott or Hilton brands and managed by 16 third-party companies. The company earns income from hotel operations; 2025 comparable RevPAR was $117.95 at 74.1%... Read more

$16.62+0.6% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#10 of 12 REIT - Hotel & Motel
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.26%
IncomeYield5.77%(5y avg 4.96%)Payout131.51%
Stop $15.88Target $16.68(resistance)A.R:R -2.6:1
Analyst target$15.61-6.1%9 analysts
$16.68our TP
$16.62price
$15.61mean
$15
$17

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.62 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Marriott or Hilton brands. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Marriott or Hilton brands
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.8% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.8
P/E (Fwd)23.6
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA12.5
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.87
Dividend5.77%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyMarriott or Hilton brands
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of the Company’s hotels operate under Marriott or Hilton brands; therefore, the Company is subject to risks associated with concentrating its portfolio in these brand families.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.3
Macd
2.4
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -2.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.42Resistance $17.02

Price Targets

$16
$17
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.1% upside)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APLE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.62 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Marriott or Hilton brands. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.88. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APLE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.68 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $15.88. Stop-loss: $15.88.

What are the risks of investing in APLE?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Marriott or Hilton brands; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away).

Is APLE overvalued or undervalued?

Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 23.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APLE?

16 analysts cover APLE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. do?Apple Hospitality REIT owns 217 hotels with 29,583 guest rooms across 37 states, substantially all operating under...

Apple Hospitality REIT owns 217 hotels with 29,583 guest rooms across 37 states, substantially all operating under Marriott or Hilton brands and managed by 16 third-party companies. The company earns income from hotel operations; 2025 comparable RevPAR was $117.95 at 74.1% occupancy and an ADR of $159.09.

Related stocks: HST (Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.) · SHO (Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. ) · DRH (Diamondrock Hospitality Company) · RHP (Ryman Hospitality Properties, I) · XHR (Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.)
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