Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.61
- ▸Attractively valued
AMX · Why this verdict
Why America Movil (AMX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
America Movil is attractively valued at an 11.8x forward P/E with 183% cash conversion, but leverage, only 8.0% upside to the $26.43 analyst target versus 13.5% downside and an overbought RSI of 79 leave a modest reward-to-risk of 0.59.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.8x with a PEG of 0.61, an attractively valued multiple with a value score of 8.6/10. Valuation breakdown | Earnings should hold so the forward multiple stays near 12x or re-rates modestly higher. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and the growth score is 4.0/10, so the low multiple may reflect a mature telecom business with limited earnings growth. | ||
Free cash flow is an excellent 183% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, pointing to strong cash generation. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should stay well above net income to support debt service and dividends. | →Stable |
| CounterTelecom depreciation inflates cash flow versus net income, so a high ratio is structural and does not prove earnings quality. | ||
Debt-to-equity of 1.5 triggers a leverage penalty of -1.0 and the sector adds a further -0.8 modifier, cutting the adjusted score to 4.43 from a headline 6.2. Bear case | Leverage should stay stable or fall so the penalty does not widen. | →Stable |
| CounterTelecom networks carry steady, recurring cash flows that support higher debt loads than other sectors. | ||
The price of $24.48 is 8.0% below the $26.43 analyst target against 13.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.59. Upside pct | A pullback toward the stop-level zone or a higher analyst target should be required before the setup improves. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRecent analyst-driven news and positive sentiment (7.5/10) suggest targets may rise. | ||
Momentum is solid at 6.3/10 with the price above its 200-day average, but the RSI of 79 is overbought and implied volatility is 67%. Momentum breakdown | The price should hold above the 200-day average through any overbought consolidation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith a technical score of only 3.6/10, the overbought rally is vulnerable to a sharp pullback. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.8x with a PEG of 0.61, an attractively valued multiple with a value score of 8.6/10.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings should hold so the forward multiple stays near 12x or re-rates modestly higher.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and the growth score is 4.0/10, so the low multiple may reflect a mature telecom business with limited earnings growth.
Free cash flow is an excellent 183% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, pointing to strong cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should stay well above net income to support debt service and dividends.
CounterTelecom depreciation inflates cash flow versus net income, so a high ratio is structural and does not prove earnings quality.
Debt-to-equity of 1.5 triggers a leverage penalty of -1.0 and the sector adds a further -0.8 modifier, cutting the adjusted score to 4.43 from a headline 6.2.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Leverage should stay stable or fall so the penalty does not widen.
CounterTelecom networks carry steady, recurring cash flows that support higher debt loads than other sectors.
The price of $24.48 is 8.0% below the $26.43 analyst target against 13.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.59.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- A pullback toward the stop-level zone or a higher analyst target should be required before the setup improves.
CounterRecent analyst-driven news and positive sentiment (7.5/10) suggest targets may rise.
Momentum is solid at 6.3/10 with the price above its 200-day average, but the RSI of 79 is overbought and implied volatility is 67%.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should hold above the 200-day average through any overbought consolidation.
CounterWith a technical score of only 3.6/10, the overbought rally is vulnerable to a sharp pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 8.5 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 183% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $1,653 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:98d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.47
Upside
+6.8%
Downside
14.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.47 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Momentum at 7.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.4, Technical at 3.7, and Growth at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 16x from the current 11.8x.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 120% from the current 183%.
- P3Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 2.0 from the current 1.5.
- P4Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $23.50, which would lift upside to the $26.43 target above 12%.
- P5Overbought Uptrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 6.3.