Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.14
- ▸Attractively valued
AMX · Why this verdict
Why America Movil (AMX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A well-valued telecom franchise with excellent cash conversion and positive price momentum has nonetheless missed earnings consensus in three of the last four quarters, and the risk/reward geometry at current levels is unfavorable; the setup calls for patience until execution improves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13 times alongside a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.16 positions the stock in the attractively valued tier relative to telecom services peers — a margin of safety that would provide fundamental support if the earnings miss pattern corrects. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 16 times as earnings estimates are revised upward following improved quarterly execution. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA compressed multiple in a leveraged telecom can persist or deepen if earnings keep missing; low multiples are not a catalyst on their own, and debt servicing at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7 constrains the capital allocation flexibility that would otherwise support a re-rating. | ||
The company has failed to meet or exceed consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, with negative surprises ranging from 2% to 17%, and recorded zero beats in the trailing year; the average earnings surprise across the period is approximately negative 8%. Earnings | Earnings beat rate recovers to at least 75% over the next four quarters with average positive surprise above 3%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe one in-line quarter shows the company can at least meet expectations; if analysts reset consensus to a more achievable level following recent misses, the reported pattern may appear more severe than the underlying business fundamentally warrants. | ||
With 2.6% upside to the take-profit target against 5.7% of downside, the reward-to-risk ratio sits at 0.46 — far below the 1.5-to-1 bar for a conviction entry — meaning the position geometry does not support adding or initiating exposure at current levels. Price targets | Setup becomes actionable if price resets to a level where upside to the take-profit target exceeds 10% and the reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5. | →Stable |
| CounterIf earnings execution improves and analysts revise price targets upward, available upside widens without requiring a price pullback; a target revision of even 10% would materially change the entry geometry. | ||
Free cash flow is equal to 160% of reported net income, signaling genuine cash generation well in excess of accounting profits, supported by a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 — a quality indicator that argues the business is more durable than the earnings miss streak alone would imply. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 120% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the high conversion rate is structural rather than a one-period event. | →Stable |
| CounterDebt-to-equity of 1.7 attracts an explicit risk penalty; if debt service absorbs a rising share of that free cash flow, the headline conversion rate overstates freely available capital and the quality advantage narrows. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13 times alongside a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.16 positions the stock in the attractively valued tier relative to telecom services peers — a margin of safety that would provide fundamental support if the earnings miss pattern corrects.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 16 times as earnings estimates are revised upward following improved quarterly execution.
CounterA compressed multiple in a leveraged telecom can persist or deepen if earnings keep missing; low multiples are not a catalyst on their own, and debt servicing at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7 constrains the capital allocation flexibility that would otherwise support a re-rating.
The company has failed to meet or exceed consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, with negative surprises ranging from 2% to 17%, and recorded zero beats in the trailing year; the average earnings surprise across the period is approximately negative 8%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate recovers to at least 75% over the next four quarters with average positive surprise above 3%.
CounterThe one in-line quarter shows the company can at least meet expectations; if analysts reset consensus to a more achievable level following recent misses, the reported pattern may appear more severe than the underlying business fundamentally warrants.
With 2.6% upside to the take-profit target against 5.7% of downside, the reward-to-risk ratio sits at 0.46 — far below the 1.5-to-1 bar for a conviction entry — meaning the position geometry does not support adding or initiating exposure at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Setup becomes actionable if price resets to a level where upside to the take-profit target exceeds 10% and the reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5.
CounterIf earnings execution improves and analysts revise price targets upward, available upside widens without requiring a price pullback; a target revision of even 10% would materially change the entry geometry.
Free cash flow is equal to 160% of reported net income, signaling genuine cash generation well in excess of accounting profits, supported by a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 — a quality indicator that argues the business is more durable than the earnings miss streak alone would imply.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 120% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the high conversion rate is structural rather than a one-period event.
CounterDebt-to-equity of 1.7 attracts an explicit risk penalty; if debt service absorbs a rising share of that free cash flow, the headline conversion rate overstates freely available capital and the quality advantage narrows.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 160% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.2 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.6 |
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $26.09 has reached target $26.29. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.15
Upside
+0.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $26.09 has reached target $26.29. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.7 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.1, Insider at 5.0, and Technical at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 3% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the miss pattern.
- P2Limited Upside Unfavorable Risk Reward
Trip ifUpside to take-profit target expands above 10% while downside remains below 8%, improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.25.
- P3Attractive Valuation ProfileTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 18 times without a corresponding increase in consensus revenue growth estimates above 10%.
- P4Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.