Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
AMSC · Why this verdict
Why American Superconductor Corpora (AMSC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
American Superconductor is growing revenue about 30% YoY with 43% margins and a wide moat, and sits 94.0% below its $52.49 analyst target, but free cash flow is near zero, the stock is down 62% from its high and in a downtrend, and earnings arrive in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AMSC has a wide moat, 43% margins and a 30% return on equity, but earnings quality is flagged as a red flag because free cash flow is about 0% of net income. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should rise toward net income as working capital normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterNear-zero cash conversion suggests reported profits are being absorbed by inventory and receivables, which weakens the quality of the margin story. | ||
Revenue grew about 30% YoY, from $72.4 million to $94.1 million in the June 2026 quarter, and the company ranks best in class on peer rank. Growth breakdown | Revenue should keep growing toward the $87.7 million next-quarter estimate and beyond. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and revenue is lumpy, with a sequential dip in the September 2025 quarter, so growth may not be linear. | ||
The price of $27.05 sits 94.0% below the $52.49 analyst target, with 12.9% downside and a reward-to-risk of 7.28. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target without breaching the $23.90 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is 62% off its 52-week high and the earnings pattern is volatile, so large targets have not prevented the decline. | ||
AMSC has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the next report is due in 3 days, a binary near-term event. Catalyst breakdown | A fourth beat on the November 4 report would reinforce the growth pillar. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average surprise of 449% is skewed by tiny per-share figures, and one miss in four quarters shows the record is not fully reliable. | ||
The price is below a 200-day average that is falling 1.1% per 30 days, but on-balance volume is rising and implied volatility is high at 103%. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day slope should flatten and the price should hold above recent lows as volume accumulation continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross and an extreme 6.3% gap down point to continued selling pressure and high volatility. | ||
AMSC has a wide moat, 43% margins and a 30% return on equity, but earnings quality is flagged as a red flag because free cash flow is about 0% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should rise toward net income as working capital normalizes.
CounterNear-zero cash conversion suggests reported profits are being absorbed by inventory and receivables, which weakens the quality of the margin story.
Revenue grew about 30% YoY, from $72.4 million to $94.1 million in the June 2026 quarter, and the company ranks best in class on peer rank.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing toward the $87.7 million next-quarter estimate and beyond.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and revenue is lumpy, with a sequential dip in the September 2025 quarter, so growth may not be linear.
The price of $27.05 sits 94.0% below the $52.49 analyst target, with 12.9% downside and a reward-to-risk of 7.28.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target without breaching the $23.90 stop level.
CounterThe stock is 62% off its 52-week high and the earnings pattern is volatile, so large targets have not prevented the decline.
AMSC has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the next report is due in 3 days, a binary near-term event.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- A fourth beat on the November 4 report would reinforce the growth pillar.
CounterThe average surprise of 449% is skewed by tiny per-share figures, and one miss in four quarters shows the record is not fully reliable.
The price is below a 200-day average that is falling 1.1% per 30 days, but on-balance volume is rising and implied volatility is high at 103%.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day slope should flatten and the price should hold above recent lows as volume accumulation continues.
CounterA death cross and an extreme 6.3% gap down point to continued selling pressure and high volatility.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 0% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 134%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
8.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.07
- ▸High IV: 104%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:7.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
7.30
Upside
+99.2%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -63% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Peer rank at 8.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 7.30 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Peer rank at 8.5, Growth at 7.8, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4, Momentum at 3.4, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Margin Moat Weak Cash
Trip ifMargins fall below 35% from the current 43%.
- P3Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $32, less than 20% above the current $27.05 price.
- P4Earnings Beat Record Event
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% on the November 4 report.
- P5Downtrend With Volume Accumulation
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average 30-day slope falls below -3% from the current -1.1%.