Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
AMSC · Why this verdict
Why American Superconductor Corpora (AMSC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a 55% positive surprise; the consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering suggests disciplined guidance and reliable operational execution. Catalyst | Beat rate remains at 100% over the next two quarters with positive surprise of at least 10% each. | →Stable |
| CounterOne quarter in the trailing run carried an extraordinarily high surprise figure driven by a very low baseline estimate, which inflates the average and may reflect a non-recurring event; any reversion to an in-line result would break the streak and reframe the pattern. | ||
Revenue has grown 30% year-over-year, placing the company among the faster-growing names in the specialty industrial machinery peer group and providing the fundamental underpinning for a premium earnings multiple. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next two consecutive reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price-to-earnings multiple has expanded 2.1 times, signaling the market may already be pricing in earnings normalization; if growth decelerates materially, the premium multiple could compress sharply, erasing recent gains. | ||
The stock has pulled back to deeply oversold levels — RSI near 24, below the 200-day moving average — but the long-term moving average is still rising, suggesting this is a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 within 8 weeks and price reclaims the 200-day moving average, confirming the uptrend remains intact. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 24 is consistent with capitulation that can persist or deepen; the elevated put/call ratio of 1.78 indicates the options market is not yet pricing a near-term reversal, and the extreme gap-up event noted in technicals may still be unwinding. | ||
Free cash flow is only 5% of reported net income — a flagged red-flag divergence — raising questions about whether headline profitability is translating into spendable cash, and creating uncertainty about the quality of the reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income recovers above 50% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming earnings are converting into real cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterA company in a rapid growth phase naturally consumes working capital and incurs capital expenditure that can temporarily depress free cash flow relative to net income without impugning the quality of reported earnings; the metric may normalize once the growth investment cycle matures. | ||
A price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.12 against a forward multiple of 27.7 times signals that the growth implied by consensus estimates more than justifies the current price, leaving meaningful room for multiple expansion if growth is sustained. Valuation breakdown | Price-to-earnings-growth ratio rises above 0.5 as consensus estimates move higher, or the forward multiple expands above 35 times as the market prices in sustained growth. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward multiple above 25 times on a small-cap industrial name with high implied volatility carries significant compression risk if the macro environment shifts or sector rotation away from growth names intensifies. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a 55% positive surprise; the consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering suggests disciplined guidance and reliable operational execution.
→StableCatalyst
- Expectation
- Beat rate remains at 100% over the next two quarters with positive surprise of at least 10% each.
CounterOne quarter in the trailing run carried an extraordinarily high surprise figure driven by a very low baseline estimate, which inflates the average and may reflect a non-recurring event; any reversion to an in-line result would break the streak and reframe the pattern.
Revenue has grown 30% year-over-year, placing the company among the faster-growing names in the specialty industrial machinery peer group and providing the fundamental underpinning for a premium earnings multiple.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next two consecutive reported quarters.
CounterThe price-to-earnings multiple has expanded 2.1 times, signaling the market may already be pricing in earnings normalization; if growth decelerates materially, the premium multiple could compress sharply, erasing recent gains.
The stock has pulled back to deeply oversold levels — RSI near 24, below the 200-day moving average — but the long-term moving average is still rising, suggesting this is a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 within 8 weeks and price reclaims the 200-day moving average, confirming the uptrend remains intact.
CounterAn RSI of 24 is consistent with capitulation that can persist or deepen; the elevated put/call ratio of 1.78 indicates the options market is not yet pricing a near-term reversal, and the extreme gap-up event noted in technicals may still be unwinding.
Free cash flow is only 5% of reported net income — a flagged red-flag divergence — raising questions about whether headline profitability is translating into spendable cash, and creating uncertainty about the quality of the reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income recovers above 50% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming earnings are converting into real cash generation.
CounterA company in a rapid growth phase naturally consumes working capital and incurs capital expenditure that can temporarily depress free cash flow relative to net income without impugning the quality of reported earnings; the metric may normalize once the growth investment cycle matures.
A price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.12 against a forward multiple of 27.7 times signals that the growth implied by consensus estimates more than justifies the current price, leaving meaningful room for multiple expansion if growth is sustained.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price-to-earnings-growth ratio rises above 0.5 as consensus estimates move higher, or the forward multiple expands above 35 times as the market prices in sustained growth.
CounterA forward multiple above 25 times on a small-cap industrial name with high implied volatility carries significant compression risk if the macro environment shifts or sector rotation away from growth names intensifies.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats against a 30% revenue growth backdrop and a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.12 frame a genuinely attractive valuation, but a price pullback to deeply oversold levels and free cash flow equal to only 5% of net income are material caution flags that must resolve before the bull case is fully trusted.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 2.2 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.4 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Strong margins: 45%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 5% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 5.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 76%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $7,788,753 (0.433% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 9.5 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 0.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 97%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- INSIDER:0.43%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.31
Upside
+49.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.9; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.9, Value at 7.8, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, and Insider at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the beat streak.
- P2Strong 30 Percent Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Oversold Pullback Within Uptrend
Trip ifRSI fails to recover above 35 within 10 weeks and price remains more than 10% below the 200-day moving average.
- P4Free Cash Flow Quality Gap
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Attractive Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPrice-to-earnings-growth ratio rises above 1.5 as consensus earnings estimates are revised downward, indicating the growth premium is no longer supported.