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ALMAlmonty Industries Inc.Sell5.0·$13.54-4.51%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company carries an attractively low forward multiple and 32% analyst upside, with positive news sentiment and rising volume accumulation — but it is burning cash at a rate of 119% of revenue, falls well below the minimum quality threshold, and has no reliable earnings history to anchor forward estimates, making the investment case highly speculative until financial sustainability is demonstrated.

Thesis pillars

  • Severe Cash Burn Undermines ViabilityStable
  • Attractive Valuation With Analyst UpsideStable
  • Quality Below Minimum FloorDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Almonty Industries Inc. (ALM) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.54: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Almonty Industries Inc. engages in mining, processing, and shipping of tungsten concentrates. The company explores for tin and tungsten deposits. It holds 100% interests in the Canada, Korea, Portugal, Spain, and the United States projects and mines. The company is headquartered... Read more

$13.54+62.4% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#19 of 34 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.57%
Stop $12.41Target $21.67(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$24.91+83.9%7 analysts
$21.67our TP
$13.54price
$24.91mean
$33

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.54: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and news soft restructuring. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 7, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA-161.6
Profit Mgn-265.1%
ROE-70.7%
Rev Growth221.2%
Beta2.05
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV94%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+13.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.4
Growth Rank
9.3
Industry growth leader

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
2.3
Operating Margin
3.5
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
8.3
Cash-burning: FCF -119% of revenueNo competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings in 13 days
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5NEWS SOFT RESTRUCTURINGEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.45Resistance $17.40

Price Targets

$12
$22
A.Upside+62.4%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! NEWS_SOFT:RESTRUCTURING

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.54: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.41. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.67 (+62.4% upside). Prior stop was $12.41. Stop-loss: $12.41.

What are the risks of investing in ALM?

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is ALM overvalued or undervalued?

Almonty Industries Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALM?

11 analysts cover ALM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Almonty Industries Inc. do?Almonty Industries Inc. engages in mining, processing, and shipping of tungsten concentrates. The company explores for...

Almonty Industries Inc. engages in mining, processing, and shipping of tungsten concentrates. The company explores for tin and tungsten deposits. It holds 100% interests in the Canada, Korea, Portugal, Spain, and the United States projects and mines. The company is headquartered in Dillon, Montana.

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