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ALCAlcon Inc.Hold5.0·$69.66+4.25%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Alcon's confirmed price downtrend and a put-to-call ratio of 3.70 reflect significant near-term bearish sentiment — though rising analyst estimates, 19% upside to the consensus target, and strong cash conversion suggest the setup could improve materially if the earnings momentum visible in three of the past four quarters persists.

Thesis pillars

  • Death Cross Confirmed DowntrendStable
  • Elevated Put Call Ratio Bearish PositioningStable
  • Rising Estimates Offset Weak GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Alcon Inc. (ALC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care. It offers equipment, instrumentation and diagnostics, intraocular lenses (IOLs), and other implantables; and... Read more

$69.66+13.6% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#22 of 32 Medical Instruments & Supplies
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.61%
IncomeYield0.52%(5y avg 0.29%)Payout20.39%sustainable
Stop $66.70Target $79.13(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$87.92+26.2%15 analysts
$79.13our TP
$69.66price
$87.92mean
$107

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Weak overall score: 5.0/10
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.7
P/E (Fwd)17.5
Mkt Cap$34.0B
EV/EBITDA16.2
Profit Mgn7.7%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.70
Dividend0.52%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
4.2
Growth Rank
4.3
Quality Rank
6.1
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $63.81Resistance $69.75

Price Targets

$67
$79
A.Upside+13.6%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $79.13 (+13.6%), stop $66.70 (−4.4%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.13 (+13.6% upside). Target $79.13 (+13.6%), stop $66.70 (−4.4%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $66.70.

What are the risks of investing in ALC?

Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ALC overvalued or undervalued?

Alcon Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.7 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ALC?

18 analysts cover ALC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Alcon Inc. do?Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates...

Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care. It offers equipment, instrumentation and diagnostics, intraocular lenses (IOLs), and other implantables; and consumables, including viscoelastics, surgical solutions, incisional instruments, surgical custom packs, and other products for surgical procedures. The company's cataract products include Unity CS, LenSx laser system, Verion reference unit and Verion digital marker, ARGOS biometer, SMARTCATARACT health platform, NGENUITY 3D visualization system, LuxOR surgical ophthalmic microscope, and ORA system for intra-operative measurements; ADI cloud-based platform; and implantable products, including monofocal, Toric, and Presbyopia-Correcting IOLs, as well as delivery systems, such as AutonoMe and UltraSert. In addition, it provides Custom Pak surgical procedure packs vitreoretinal products comprising constellation vision systems, procedure packs, lasers and hand-held microsurgical instruments, Grieshaber, MIVS instruments; scissors, forceps and micro-instruments, medical grade vitreous tamponades, and Hypervit probes; and refractive surgery products, including WaveLight and Contoura Vision used for LASIK refractive procedure. Further, the company offers daily disposable, reusable, and color-enhancing contact lenses; ocular health products, such as dry eye, ocular allergies, glaucoma, and contact lens care, as well as ocular vitamins and redness relievers. The company was formerly known as Alcon Universal S.A. and changed its name to Alcon Inc. in December 2001. Alcon Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.

Related stocks: WST (West Pharmaceutical Services, I) · NVST (Envista Holdings Corporation) · TFX (Teleflex Incorporated) · ISRG (Intuitive Surgical, Inc.) · MMSI (Merit Medical Systems, Inc.)
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