Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
AGIO · Why this verdict
Why Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Agios is a cash-burning biotech whose value rests on PYRUKYND and AQVESME, with 30.6% analyst-target upside offset by negative FDA-related news, weak quality scores and earnings due in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Recent negative FDA-related news and a 15.6% gap down on a selloff with 2.4x average volume signal elevated regulatory risk. Warnings | Regulatory clarity emerges and the price stabilises above the support level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn FDA setback can permanently impair a biotech's value, and a 15.6% gap down may not reverse. | ||
Agios burns cash at -279% of revenue, producing a quality score of 2.2 that is below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Cash burn narrows as product revenue ramps over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPre-profit biotechs routinely burn cash; financing needs could dilute shareholders if launches disappoint. | ||
Concentration risk in PYRUKYND and AQVESME means one product family drives the business outcome. Bear case | Revenue from these products grows and pipeline reduces dependence over time. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA setback in one product, such as a regulatory or label issue, would hit nearly all value. | ||
The $39.91 analyst target implies 30.6% upside against 13.7% downside from $30.55, a reward-to-risk of 2.24. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the analyst target as launch metrics improve. | →Stable |
| CounterEight-analyst coverage is light and targets are slow to reflect FDA concerns. | ||
Agios beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a 3.9% average surprise and reports in 4 days, a near-term catalyst. Avg surprise pct | The 2026-11-05 report narrows the loss versus consensus. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA short-interest of 12% and elevated put/call of 1.80 show traders expect trouble. | ||
Recent negative FDA-related news and a 15.6% gap down on a selloff with 2.4x average volume signal elevated regulatory risk.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Regulatory clarity emerges and the price stabilises above the support level.
CounterAn FDA setback can permanently impair a biotech's value, and a 15.6% gap down may not reverse.
Agios burns cash at -279% of revenue, producing a quality score of 2.2 that is below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn narrows as product revenue ramps over the next 12 months.
CounterPre-profit biotechs routinely burn cash; financing needs could dilute shareholders if launches disappoint.
Concentration risk in PYRUKYND and AQVESME means one product family drives the business outcome.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from these products grows and pipeline reduces dependence over time.
CounterA setback in one product, such as a regulatory or label issue, would hit nearly all value.
The $39.91 analyst target implies 30.6% upside against 13.7% downside from $30.55, a reward-to-risk of 2.24.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as launch metrics improve.
CounterEight-analyst coverage is light and targets are slow to reflect FDA concerns.
Agios beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a 3.9% average surprise and reports in 4 days, a near-term catalyst.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The 2026-11-05 report narrows the loss versus consensus.
CounterA short-interest of 12% and elevated put/call of 1.80 show traders expect trouble.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -279% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $371,112 (0.021% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.4 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- NEWS_SOFT:FDA_NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.08
Upside
+28.6%
Downside
13.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.5<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 6.9 and asymmetric R:R of 2.08.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.9, Technical at 6.4, and Peer rank at 5.8; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Quality at 2.2, and Growth at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Burning Biotech Profile
Trip ifFree cash flow burn exceeds 350% of revenue from the current 279%.
- P2Single Product Concentration
Trip ifPYRUKYND and AQVESME exceed 90% of total revenue.
- P3Negative Fda News Event
Trip ifPrice falls below the $28.78 stop-loss level.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target drops below $34, cutting implied upside under 12%.
- P5Earnings In Four Days
Trip ifQuarterly loss per share exceeds -$1.90, worse than the -1.69 recent quarters.