Agios is a cash-burning biotech whose value rests on PYRUKYND and AQVESME, with 30.6% analyst-target upside offset by negative FDA-related news, weak quality scores and earnings due in 4 days.
Thesis pillars
- Negative Fda News Event↑Improving
- Cash Burning Biotech Profile→Stable
- Single Product Concentration↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.20: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Agios Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage rare hematology company with two approved medicines: PYRUKYND® (mitapivat) for PK deficiency in the U.S. and EU, and AQVESME™ (mitapivat) FDA-approved in December 2025 for thalassemia. PYRUKYND® generated $54.0 million in net product... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.20: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and news soft fda negative and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Agios Pharmaceuticals' two approved medicines—PYRUKYND for PK deficiency (approved in the U.S., EU, and Great Britain) and AQVESME for thalassemia (FDA-approved December 2025)—both contain mitapivat, an oral pyruvate kinase activator. PYRUKYND generated $54.0 million in net product revenues in the year ended December 31, 2025, compared with $36.5 million in 2024 and $26.8 million in 2023. AQVESME launched commercially in late January 2026 following FDA approval and implementation of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy to monitor hepatocellular injury risk.
Agios earns product revenue from direct U.S. sales of PYRUKYND and AQVESME, and rest-of-world royalties under two distribution agreements: the Avanzanite Agreement (European Economic Area, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, signed June 2025) and the NewBridge Agreement (Gulf Council Countries, signed July 2024). The company retains full ownership of both approved medicines and funds their development and commercialization costs. The commercial patient population is narrow—PK deficiency affects an estimated 3,000–8,000 individuals in the U.S. and EU5, while thalassemia prevalence in those same markets is roughly 18,000–23,000. Beyond product revenue, Agios retains a 3% earn-out on vorasidenib U.S. net sales above $1.0 billion per year following the August 2024 sale of the Vorasidenib Royalty Rights to Royalty Pharma for $905.0 million. The remaining pipeline includes tebapivat for lower-risk MDS and SCD, AG-181 for phenylketonuria, and AG-236 licensed from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals targeting TMPRSS6 for polycythemia vera.
Show full overview
The next significant binary event is FDA review of the sickle cell disease application for mitapivat: the Phase 3 RISE UP trial achieved the hemoglobin response primary endpoint (40.6% response vs. 2.9% placebo, p<0.0001) but missed the co-primary annualized pain crises endpoint (p=0.1213). Agios plans a pre-supplemental NDA meeting with the FDA in the first quarter of 2026 before submitting the U.S. marketing application; regulatory acceptance of a mixed-endpoint package could expand the mitapivat franchise into a U.S. and EU5 patient population of approximately 120,000–135,000—substantially larger than either current approved indication.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Agios Pharmaceuticals Announces FDA Extension of PDUFA Goal Date for Mitapivat in Sickle Cell Disease — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Agios Pharmaceuticals Says FDA Extends Mitapivat PDUFA Date For Sickle Cell Disease To February 1, 2027 — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS HC Wainwright & Co. Assumes Agios Pharmaceuticals at Buy, Announces Price Target of $55 — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Agios Pharmaceuticals Insider Sold Shares Worth $296,470 — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Agios Pharmaceuticals, Lowers Price Target to $37 — benzinga Oct 7, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:04:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductPYRUKYND® / AQVESME™10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to generate meaningful revenue from PYRUKYND® and AQVESME™ will depend heavily on our successful development and commercialization of the product'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.20: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $29.02. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $39.91 (+27.9% upside). Prior stop was $29.02. Stop-loss: $29.02.
Concentration risk — Product: PYRUKYND® / AQVESME™; Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts rate AGIO, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $46.
What does Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Agios Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage rare hematology company with two approved medicines: PYRUKYND® (mitapivat)...
Agios Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage rare hematology company with two approved medicines: PYRUKYND® (mitapivat) for PK deficiency in the U.S. and EU, and AQVESME™ (mitapivat) FDA-approved in December 2025 for thalassemia. PYRUKYND® generated $54.0 million in net product revenues in 2025 and AQVESME™ launched commercially in the United States in late January 2026.