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Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.73: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.14; Below-average business quality.

Agios is a commercial-stage rare disease biopharma with two marketed products: PYRUKYND (mitapivat for PK deficiency in US/EU and thalassemia in Saudi Arabia) and AQVESME (mitapivat for thalassemia, US launched January 2026). PYRUKYND generated $54M in net product revenues in... Read more

$27.73+29.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#87 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-15.93%
Stop $25.83Target $35.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$41.13+48.3%8 analysts
$35.78our TP
$27.73price
$41.13mean
$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.73: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.14; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: mitapivat (PYRUKYND/AQVESME)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-6.1
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA-2.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-32.8%
Rev Growth137.7%
Beta0.58
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C13.14bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$18-36.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductmitapivat (PYRUKYND/AQVESME)
    10-K Item 1: 'The lead product candidate in our portfolio, mitapivat, is an activator of both wild-type and mutant pyruvate kinase, or PK, enzymes for the potential treatment of hemolytic anemias'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -405% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.1
Support Resistance
3.0
Bollinger
4.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
9.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.29Resistance $29.18

Price Targets

$26
$36
A.Upside+29.0%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGIO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.73: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.14; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $25.83. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGIO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.78 (+29.0% upside). Prior stop was $25.83. Stop-loss: $25.83.

What are the risks of investing in AGIO?

Concentration risk — Product: mitapivat (PYRUKYND/AQVESME); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is AGIO overvalued or undervalued?

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGIO?

16 analysts cover AGIO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Agios is a commercial-stage rare disease biopharma with two marketed products: PYRUKYND (mitapivat for PK deficiency in...

Agios is a commercial-stage rare disease biopharma with two marketed products: PYRUKYND (mitapivat for PK deficiency in US/EU and thalassemia in Saudi Arabia) and AQVESME (mitapivat for thalassemia, US launched January 2026). PYRUKYND generated $54M in net product revenues in 2025; the pipeline includes tebapivat (LR MDS/SCD), AG-181 (PKU), and AG-236 (PV).

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