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Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.09: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.60; Below-average business quality.

Agios is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two approved hematology products: PYRUKYND® (FDA/EU/Saudi Arabia) for PK deficiency and thalassemia, and AQVESME™ (FDA) for thalassemia launched in late January 2026. Revenue comes from net product sales ($54.0M... Read more

$28.09+27.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#75 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $26.04Target $35.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$41.13+46.4%8 analysts
$35.78our TP
$28.09price
$41.13mean
$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.09: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.60; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: PYRUKYND®
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-6.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA-1.4
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-30.2%
Rev Growth86.1%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C2.60bearish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$13-55.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductPYRUKYND®
    10-K Item 1A: 'We generated $54.0 million, $36.5 million and $26.8 million of net product revenues from sales of PYRUKYND® in the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -496% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.29Resistance $35.99

Price Targets

$26
$36
A.Upside+27.4%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGIO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.09: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.60; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $26.04. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGIO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.78 (+27.8% upside). Prior stop was $26.04. Stop-loss: $26.04.

What are the risks of investing in AGIO?

Concentration risk — Product: PYRUKYND®; Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is AGIO overvalued or undervalued?

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGIO?

16 analysts cover AGIO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Agios is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two approved hematology products: PYRUKYND® (FDA/EU/Saudi...

Agios is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two approved hematology products: PYRUKYND® (FDA/EU/Saudi Arabia) for PK deficiency and thalassemia, and AQVESME™ (FDA) for thalassemia launched in late January 2026. Revenue comes from net product sales ($54.0M PYRUKYND® in 2025) with a pipeline including tebapivat (LR MDS/SCD) and AG-236 (polycythemia vera).

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