Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
AG · Why this verdict
Why First Majestic Silver (AG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
First Majestic Silver pairs high quality, 57% growth and attractive valuation with a broken price trend, 55% drawdown and two recent earnings misses, so the setup depends on a momentum turn.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A death cross, price below all moving averages, RSI of 30 and a 55% drawdown from the 52-week high leave the trend negative. Chart pattern detection | Momentum score rises above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCapitulation-style declines can continue, and the recent news modifier already shifted the verdict toward selling. | ||
First Majestic shows strong 21% margins, 223% FCF-to-net-income cash conversion, a wide economic moat and a 9/9 Piotroski score. Quality breakdown | Margins stay near 21% and cash conversion remains above 100% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMining margins depend on silver prices, so quality scores may reflect a commodity peak rather than durable economics. | ||
Revenue is growing 57% YoY while forward P/E is 14.3x, which makes the valuation attractive relative to growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY while the multiple does not expand. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue fell from $480.9M to $414.2M in the latest two quarters, suggesting growth is already decelerating. | ||
Two consecutive earnings misses (latest -14.87%) with earnings due in 4 days raise event risk. Last 4 quarters | The 2026-11-05 report returns to a beat and ends the miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterMisses in four of the last six quarters suggest estimates are consistently too high, so another miss is likely. | ||
The $20.40 analyst target implies 43.1% upside versus 10.9% downside from $14.26, a reward-to-risk of 3.96. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the analyst target as silver-driven earnings improve. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly 2 analysts cover the stock so the target is weak evidence, and implied volatility of 121% makes the stop easy to hit. | ||
A death cross, price below all moving averages, RSI of 30 and a 55% drawdown from the 52-week high leave the trend negative.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average within 12 months.
CounterCapitulation-style declines can continue, and the recent news modifier already shifted the verdict toward selling.
First Majestic shows strong 21% margins, 223% FCF-to-net-income cash conversion, a wide economic moat and a 9/9 Piotroski score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay near 21% and cash conversion remains above 100% over the next 12 months.
CounterMining margins depend on silver prices, so quality scores may reflect a commodity peak rather than durable economics.
Revenue is growing 57% YoY while forward P/E is 14.3x, which makes the valuation attractive relative to growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY while the multiple does not expand.
CounterQuarterly revenue fell from $480.9M to $414.2M in the latest two quarters, suggesting growth is already decelerating.
Two consecutive earnings misses (latest -14.87%) with earnings due in 4 days raise event risk.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The 2026-11-05 report returns to a beat and ends the miss streak.
CounterMisses in four of the last six quarters suggest estimates are consistently too high, so another miss is likely.
The $20.40 analyst target implies 43.1% upside versus 10.9% downside from $14.26, a reward-to-risk of 3.96.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as silver-driven earnings improve.
CounterOnly 2 analysts cover the stock so the target is weak evidence, and implied volatility of 121% makes the stop easy to hit.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 8.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 223% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 57% YoY
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 70%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.7 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Above max pain $5
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C_QUALITY_VALUE_WAIT|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.50
Upside
+44.4%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.3
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -56% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The C-path quality+value combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.6 and value 8.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 4.50 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.6, and Value at 8.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Catalyst at 4.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.50 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Silver Producer
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% from the current 21%.
- P2Strong Growth Attractive Valuation
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $300M from the latest $414.2M.
- P3Earnings Misses Before Report
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for the next 2 quarters.
- P4Downtrend Death Cross Drawdown
Trip ifPrice falls below the $13.51 stop-loss level.
- P5Large Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target drops below $16, cutting implied upside under 15%.