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AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.Hold6.8·$19.22+2.34%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

First Majestic Silver shows 95% year-over-year revenue growth, exceptional free cash flow conversion, and an attractively valued multiple with 42% analyst upside, but high leverage at a debt-to-equity of 9.5 and a spotty earnings delivery record require caution before building a full position.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Analyst UpsideDeteriorating
  • Exceptional Revenue GrowthStable
  • Exceptional Cash ConversionStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Silver

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in North America. The company explores for silver and gold deposits. Its projects include the San Dimas silver/gold mine covering an area of approximately... Read more

$19.22+9.2% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 6 Silver
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.37%
IncomeYield0.32%(5y avg 0.27%)Payout5.06%sustainable
Stop $17.91Target $21.04(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$24.75+28.8%2 analysts
$21.04our TP
$19.22price
$24.75mean
$27

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 8.6/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202675d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.2%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.2
P/E (Fwd)18.5
Mkt Cap$9.3B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn21.2%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth57.3%
Beta2.11
Dividend0.32%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV68%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
2.0
Gap
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.10Resistance $19.82

Price Targets

$18
$21
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 8.6/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $21.04 (+9.5%), stop $17.91 (−7.3%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.04 (+9.2% upside). Target $21.04 (+9.5%), stop $17.91 (−7.3%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $17.91.

What are the risks of investing in AG?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is AG overvalued or undervalued?

First Majestic Silver Corp. trades at a P/E of 27.2 (forward 18.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AG?

13 analysts cover AG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $25.

What does First Majestic Silver Corp. do?First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties...

First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in North America. The company explores for silver and gold deposits. Its projects include the San Dimas silver/gold mine covering an area of approximately 71,867 hectares located in Durango State, Mexico; the Santa Elena silver/gold mine that covers an area of approximately 102,244 hectares located in Sonora State, Mexico; the Los Gatos Silver Mine covering an area of approximately 103,000 hectares located in Chihuahua, Mexico; and the La Encantada silver mine that covers an area of approximately 4,076 hectares located in Coahuila State, Mexico. The company was formerly known as First Majestic Resource Corp. and changed its name to First Majestic Silver Corp. in November 2006. First Majestic Silver Corp. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: SVM (Silvercorp Metals Inc.) · AYA (Aya Gold & Silver Inc.) · EXK (Endeavour Silver Corporation) · HSLV (Highlander Silver Corp.) · NEWP (New Pacific Metals Corp.)
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