Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
AEBI · Why this verdict
Why Aebi Schmidt Holding (AEBI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aebi Schmidt is a small-cap machinery maker with 79% YoY growth and a 9.5x forward P/E, but a quality score of 2.7, negative cash conversion, 17% short interest and a confirmed downtrend make it a high-risk recovery story.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth scores 10.0 with revenue up 79% YoY, and quarterly revenue of $496M in June 2026 compares with $278M in June 2025. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should reach the $520M estimate and sustain growth above 20% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterThe jump from $278M to $471M between June and September 2025 looks like a step change from a combination, so organic growth may be far lower. | ||
Forward P/E of 9.5x and PEG of 0.01 sit alongside an analyst target of $14.45, 27.4% above the $11.34 price. Valuation breakdown | Price should close part of the gap to the $14.45 target as earnings are delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples reflect low-quality earnings and negative free cash flow, so the discount may be justified. | ||
Quality score is 2.7, below the 4.0 floor, with an earnings-quality red flag of -355% FCF/NI and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive, with FCF/NI above 0%, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow may reflect one-time integration and working-capital needs rather than permanent weakness. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -2.4% over 30 days and short interest of 17%. Key risks | Price should reclaim its 200-day moving average and short interest should fall below 12%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and high short interest create squeeze potential if earnings surprise to the upside. | ||
Aebi has beaten in 3 of 3 recent quarters with an average surprise of +30.3% and reports on 2026-11-11, 10 days away. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates again at the November report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLarge past surprises reflect low analyst estimates after a combination, and comparisons get harder as the base resets. | ||
Growth scores 10.0 with revenue up 79% YoY, and quarterly revenue of $496M in June 2026 compares with $278M in June 2025.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $520M estimate and sustain growth above 20% YoY.
CounterThe jump from $278M to $471M between June and September 2025 looks like a step change from a combination, so organic growth may be far lower.
Forward P/E of 9.5x and PEG of 0.01 sit alongside an analyst target of $14.45, 27.4% above the $11.34 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $14.45 target as earnings are delivered.
CounterLow multiples reflect low-quality earnings and negative free cash flow, so the discount may be justified.
Quality score is 2.7, below the 4.0 floor, with an earnings-quality red flag of -355% FCF/NI and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive, with FCF/NI above 0%, over the next 12 months.
CounterNegative free cash flow may reflect one-time integration and working-capital needs rather than permanent weakness.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -2.4% over 30 days and short interest of 17%.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day moving average and short interest should fall below 12%.
CounterRising on-balance volume and high short interest create squeeze potential if earnings surprise to the upside.
Aebi has beaten in 3 of 3 recent quarters with an average surprise of +30.3% and reports on 2026-11-11, 10 days away.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again at the November report.
CounterLarge past surprises reflect low analyst estimates after a combination, and comparisons get harder as the base resets.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -355% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 79% YoY
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.8 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 5.3 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 17%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.36
Upside
+24.2%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 6d<=7d outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.36.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.3, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Quality at 2.7, Technical at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Acquisition Driven Growth Leader
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $450M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value With Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12 from current $14.45.
- P3Poor Earnings Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 2.0 from current 2.7.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% from current 17%.
- P5Beat Streak With Event Ahead
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.