Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
AEBI · Why this verdict
Why Aebi Schmidt Holding (AEBI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a market capitalization of $0.95 billion, the company sits below the $1 billion minimum required for inclusion in the investable universe, making it ineligible for consideration under the strategy's size constraints. Warnings | Market capitalization would need to rise above $1 billion and be sustained there for at least 2 consecutive months before eligibility is restored. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall-capitalization companies near the floor can grow through it quickly if revenue growth translates into earnings and market recognition; at a reported growth rate of 83% year-over-year, the market cap constraint may be transient rather than permanent. | ||
Despite strong headline revenue growth, free cash flow is negative — the free cash flow to net income ratio has been flagged as a red flag at deeply negative levels — indicating the business is not yet converting growth into cash and that reported earnings do not represent cash available to shareholders. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive on a trailing twelve-month basis within the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow in a high-growth phase may reflect deliberate investment in working capital or infrastructure; if revenue is expanding rapidly, cash consumption at this stage could be an investment, not a structural impairment, provided liquidity is maintained. | ||
Short interest stands at 15%, which has been flagged as justified given the underlying financial quality concerns, indicating a meaningful portion of the market is actively positioned against the stock. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 8% of float over the next 6 months as the company demonstrates sustained cash generation and improving quality. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest creates the conditions for a sharp short-covering rally if a positive fundamental catalyst — a surprise earnings beat or a cash flow inflection — materially changes the bear case. | ||
The most recent earnings result came in only in line with estimates, following two beats and — reading from oldest to newest — a miss in the earliest quarter of the sequence; meanwhile the setup offers only 4.5% upside versus 9.3% downside, a ratio of roughly 0.5-to-1 that does not meet a favorable threshold. Earnings | The reward-to-risk profile improves to at least 1.5-to-1 — implying either a material pullback in the stock price or a significant upward revision to the analyst price target — before the asymmetry becomes acceptable. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the four most recent quarters were beats with average surprises well above 30%; if the most recent in-line result represents a one-period pause rather than a reversal, the beat cadence may reassert itself and drive a target revision that restores upside. | ||
At a market capitalization of $0.95 billion, the company sits below the $1 billion minimum required for inclusion in the investable universe, making it ineligible for consideration under the strategy's size constraints.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Market capitalization would need to rise above $1 billion and be sustained there for at least 2 consecutive months before eligibility is restored.
CounterSmall-capitalization companies near the floor can grow through it quickly if revenue growth translates into earnings and market recognition; at a reported growth rate of 83% year-over-year, the market cap constraint may be transient rather than permanent.
Despite strong headline revenue growth, free cash flow is negative — the free cash flow to net income ratio has been flagged as a red flag at deeply negative levels — indicating the business is not yet converting growth into cash and that reported earnings do not represent cash available to shareholders.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive on a trailing twelve-month basis within the next four reported quarters.
CounterNegative free cash flow in a high-growth phase may reflect deliberate investment in working capital or infrastructure; if revenue is expanding rapidly, cash consumption at this stage could be an investment, not a structural impairment, provided liquidity is maintained.
Short interest stands at 15%, which has been flagged as justified given the underlying financial quality concerns, indicating a meaningful portion of the market is actively positioned against the stock.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% of float over the next 6 months as the company demonstrates sustained cash generation and improving quality.
CounterHigh short interest creates the conditions for a sharp short-covering rally if a positive fundamental catalyst — a surprise earnings beat or a cash flow inflection — materially changes the bear case.
The most recent earnings result came in only in line with estimates, following two beats and — reading from oldest to newest — a miss in the earliest quarter of the sequence; meanwhile the setup offers only 4.5% upside versus 9.3% downside, a ratio of roughly 0.5-to-1 that does not meet a favorable threshold.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk profile improves to at least 1.5-to-1 — implying either a material pullback in the stock price or a significant upward revision to the analyst price target — before the asymmetry becomes acceptable.
CounterTwo of the four most recent quarters were beats with average surprises well above 30%; if the most recent in-line result represents a one-period pause rather than a reversal, the beat cadence may reassert itself and drive a target revision that restores upside.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company falls below the minimum market capitalization threshold for the investable universe at $0.95 billion, and the combination of negative free cash flow, 15% short interest, and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.5-to-1 means the setup does not support a position regardless of the strong headline revenue growth rate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.5 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1091% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 83% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.2 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $252,965 (0.027% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 83.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.52
Upside
+5.5%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -85% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.7, and Insider at 6.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.4, Quality at 2.6, and Momentum at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Investable Universe Threshold
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $1.0 billion and stays above that level for 2 consecutive months.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Quality Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above $0 on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
- P3High Short Interest Bearish Signal
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float.
- P4Mixed Earnings Unfavorable Asymmetry
Trip ifUpside to the analyst price target expands beyond 15%, implying either a price target revision above $14.00 or a stock price decline below $10.50.