Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
ACIW · Why this verdict
Why ACI Worldwide (ACIW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACI Worldwide is a high-quality software company (Piotroski 9/9) with strong earnings growth, a 3-for-4 beat record and positive momentum, but the price is 2.7% above the analyst target and earnings are due in 4 days. It suits holding rather than adding at this price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings growth scores 10 out of 10 and the PEG ratio is 0.09, with a forward P/E of 14.4x. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth validates the low PEG, with forward P/E staying below 18x. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG this low may reflect a one-off earnings jump, and revenue growth scores only 4.3 out of 10. | ||
ACI Worldwide scores a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, with free cash flow quality at 7.8 out of 10 and a moat score of 6.2. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 8/9 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn metrics are mid-range (ROE 5.2, operating margin 4.2 out of 10), so financial health is not yet converting to elite profitability. | ||
ACI beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.54 versus $0.53 in August 2026 and $0.61 versus $0.50 in May 2026, though it missed in February 2026 ($0.90 versus $1.01). Earnings | The November 5 report beats the consensus estimate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent beat was only 1.9%, and a stock above its analyst target can fall on an in-line print. | ||
Momentum scores 7.0 out of 10, with rising on-balance volume and a price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 74 shows the stock is overbought. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above the 200-day average through earnings. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOverbought conditions before an earnings report raise the odds of a pullback, and 96% implied volatility signals a large expected move. | ||
The price of $56.34 is 2.7% above the $54.82 analyst target, with 11.0% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -0.24. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $56 following earnings. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating and growth is strong, so the analyst target may be stale rather than the price extended. | ||
Earnings growth scores 10 out of 10 and the PEG ratio is 0.09, with a forward P/E of 14.4x.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth validates the low PEG, with forward P/E staying below 18x.
CounterA PEG this low may reflect a one-off earnings jump, and revenue growth scores only 4.3 out of 10.
ACI Worldwide scores a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, with free cash flow quality at 7.8 out of 10 and a moat score of 6.2.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 8/9 over the next 12 months.
CounterReturn metrics are mid-range (ROE 5.2, operating margin 4.2 out of 10), so financial health is not yet converting to elite profitability.
ACI beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.54 versus $0.53 in August 2026 and $0.61 versus $0.50 in May 2026, though it missed in February 2026 ($0.90 versus $1.01).
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 5 report beats the consensus estimate.
CounterThe most recent beat was only 1.9%, and a stock above its analyst target can fall on an in-line print.
Momentum scores 7.0 out of 10, with rising on-balance volume and a price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 74 shows the stock is overbought.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above the 200-day average through earnings.
CounterOverbought conditions before an earnings report raise the odds of a pullback, and 96% implied volatility signals a large expected move.
The price of $56.34 is 2.7% above the $54.82 analyst target, with 11.0% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -0.24.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $56 following earnings.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating and growth is strong, so the analyst target may be stale rather than the price extended.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.8 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 1.4 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.44
Upside
-6.2%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.44 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.8, Insider at 7.3, and Growth at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Peer rank at 4.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9 from the current 9/9.
- P2Earnings Growth Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 20x from the current 14.4x.
- P3Mostly Positive Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Strong Trend But Overbought
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average after RSI exceeds 70.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls to $53.46 or below, from the current $56.34.