Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
ACIW · Why this verdict
Why ACI Worldwide (ACIW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACI Worldwide pairs a near-perfect Piotroski score with strong cash conversion, an attractive forward multiple of 11.7 times earnings, and 24% upside to analyst consensus — a combination that makes this one of the more compelling setups in the current list, pending confirmation that the technical recovery from the prior death cross area is sustained.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 11.7 times paired with a PEG ratio of 0.13 indicates the stock is priced well below its growth rate, suggesting the market has underweighted the earnings expansion trajectory — a gap that tends to narrow over 12 months. Valuation breakdown | Price converges toward the $55.53 analyst target, representing approximately 24% upside from current levels. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterWith light analyst coverage of just 3 analysts following the stock, the consensus target may not fully incorporate downside scenarios; the apparent PEG discount could narrow if earnings growth estimates are revised lower. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow running at 127% of net income reflect a business with exceptional financial health and earnings quality — a combination that substantially reduces the risk of reported profits being illusory. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 8 or above and free cash flow stays above 100% of net income for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quarter ending February 2026 produced a miss of 11% below expectations, breaking the prior beat streak; if the earnings delivery record is inconsistent, the investment case could stall while the market waits for clarity on forward earnings. | ||
Momentum has recovered to 6.9 — comfortably above the threshold — with an improving MACD and RSI at 61, signaling that prior weakness is giving way to renewed buying interest even as the stock remains just below its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses above the 200-day moving average within 90 days, confirming the technical recovery and opening the path toward the $55.53 target. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock has been below the 200-day moving average for roughly 26 days in a recovery attempt flagged as still in progress — if momentum stalls before price reclaims the 200-day, the setup could deteriorate back toward a confirmed downtrend. | ||
With 24% upside to the analyst target, a downside of approximately 9%, and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 3.4-to-1, the geometric setup supports a position for investors comfortable with the small-cap risk profile. Price targets | Price advances toward $55.53 over 12 months, achieving the full 24% move to target. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterImplied volatility at 73% reflects elevated uncertainty — the stated 9% downside could be exceeded in a risk-off environment, and the actual distribution of outcomes is meaningfully wider than the measured setup suggests. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.7 times paired with a PEG ratio of 0.13 indicates the stock is priced well below its growth rate, suggesting the market has underweighted the earnings expansion trajectory — a gap that tends to narrow over 12 months.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price converges toward the $55.53 analyst target, representing approximately 24% upside from current levels.
CounterWith light analyst coverage of just 3 analysts following the stock, the consensus target may not fully incorporate downside scenarios; the apparent PEG discount could narrow if earnings growth estimates are revised lower.
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow running at 127% of net income reflect a business with exceptional financial health and earnings quality — a combination that substantially reduces the risk of reported profits being illusory.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 8 or above and free cash flow stays above 100% of net income for the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe quarter ending February 2026 produced a miss of 11% below expectations, breaking the prior beat streak; if the earnings delivery record is inconsistent, the investment case could stall while the market waits for clarity on forward earnings.
Momentum has recovered to 6.9 — comfortably above the threshold — with an improving MACD and RSI at 61, signaling that prior weakness is giving way to renewed buying interest even as the stock remains just below its 200-day moving average.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses above the 200-day moving average within 90 days, confirming the technical recovery and opening the path toward the $55.53 target.
CounterThe stock has been below the 200-day moving average for roughly 26 days in a recovery attempt flagged as still in progress — if momentum stalls before price reclaims the 200-day, the setup could deteriorate back toward a confirmed downtrend.
With 24% upside to the analyst target, a downside of approximately 9%, and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 3.4-to-1, the geometric setup supports a position for investors comfortable with the small-cap risk profile.
Tripped↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances toward $55.53 over 12 months, achieving the full 24% move to target.
CounterImplied volatility at 73% reflects elevated uncertainty — the stated 9% downside could be exceeded in a risk-off environment, and the actual distribution of outcomes is meaningfully wider than the measured setup suggests.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 127% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.3 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.27
Upside
+4.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.4; weakest: Momentum at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.4, Insider at 7.3, and Growth at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Peer rank at 4.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Near Perfect Balance Sheet Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls to 6 or below and free cash flow drops below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Low Peg ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x as price rises materially faster than earnings growth.
- P3Technical Recovery In ProgressTripped
Trip ifPrice fails to cross above the 200-day moving average within 90 days and falls below $40.00.
- P4Favorable Risk Reward ProfileTripped
Trip ifPrice rises above $52.00, leaving less than 7% upside to the $55.53 target.