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ACICAmerican Coastal Insurance CorpSell5.2·$11.54+1.41%
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American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. At $11.54, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak growth.

American Coastal Insurance Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the commercial and personal property and casualty insurance business in the United States. The company provides structure, content, and liability coverage for standard single-family... Read more

$11.54+3.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#28 of 40 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-3.22%
Stop $10.94Target $11.90(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$14.00+21.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. At $11.54, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 64%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.1%
Weak growth
Overbought (RSI 79)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.4
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$559M
EV/EBITDA3.7
Profit Mgn31.3%
ROE35.9%
Rev Growth-1.4%
Beta-0.52
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV110%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.1
Declining revenue: -1%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
8.8
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
79 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.00Resistance $11.73

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACIC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $11.54, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.94. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACIC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.90 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $10.94. Stop-loss: $10.94.

What are the risks of investing in ACIC?

Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak growth; Overbought (RSI 79).

Is ACIC overvalued or undervalued?

American Coastal Insurance Corp trades at a P/E of 5.4 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACIC?

8 analysts cover ACIC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $14.

What does American Coastal Insurance Corp do?American Coastal Insurance Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the commercial and personal...

American Coastal Insurance Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the commercial and personal property and casualty insurance business in the United States. The company provides structure, content, and liability coverage for standard single-family homeowners, renters, and condominium unit owners. It also offers commercial multi-peril property insurance for residential condominium associations and apartments, as well as coverage to policyholders for loss or damage to buildings, inventory, and equipment caused by fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism. In addition, the company provides equipment breakdown, identity theft, and flood policies. The company markets and distributes its products through a network of independent agencies. The company was formerly known as United Insurance Holdings Corp. and changed its name to American Coastal Insurance Corporation in July 2023. American Coastal Insurance Corporation was founded in 1999 and is based in Saint Petersburg, Florida.

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