Value
10.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
ACGLO · Why this verdict
Why Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The parent company screens at a PEG ratio of 0.04 — an exceptionally low growth-adjusted multiple suggesting significant undervaluation relative to earnings power, which supports the credit quality backing this security. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap closes as the parent's price approaches analyst consensus, lifting the underlying credit quality supporting this security. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.04 may reflect declining earnings growth expectations rather than genuine undervaluation; if growth normalizes below prior estimates, the apparent discount could be less meaningful than it appears. | ||
The underlying business carries net margins of 25% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting improving financial health that provides a durable backstop to the security's value. Quality breakdown | Net margins at the parent remain above 20% over the next 4 quarters, sustaining the quality foundation. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue at the parent has declined approximately 3% year-over-year; if premium volume softens further, the margin quality could compress and weaken the fundamental backing for this security. | ||
With only 1.4% headroom to the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.8-to-1, the current price does not offer adequate compensation for near-term technical risk. Price targets | A pullback to below $18.50 would need to materialize to create an entry with more favorable risk geometry and upside exceeding 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) suggests underlying demand at current price levels, which may support price stability even with minimal upside headroom. | ||
The security is in a falling knife pattern — below all moving averages with a flat 200-day slope — indicating the primary technical trend is working against buyers who enter without waiting for evidence of stabilization. Setup type | The falling knife pattern resolves when price sustains above the 200-day moving average for 30 or more consecutive trading days. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI near 39 suggests proximity to oversold territory, which can precede technical rebounds even before a confirmed trend reversal; and momentum is recovering toward the lower boundary of the acceptable range. | ||
The parent company screens at a PEG ratio of 0.04 — an exceptionally low growth-adjusted multiple suggesting significant undervaluation relative to earnings power, which supports the credit quality backing this security.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap closes as the parent's price approaches analyst consensus, lifting the underlying credit quality supporting this security.
CounterA PEG of 0.04 may reflect declining earnings growth expectations rather than genuine undervaluation; if growth normalizes below prior estimates, the apparent discount could be less meaningful than it appears.
The underlying business carries net margins of 25% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting improving financial health that provides a durable backstop to the security's value.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins at the parent remain above 20% over the next 4 quarters, sustaining the quality foundation.
CounterRevenue at the parent has declined approximately 3% year-over-year; if premium volume softens further, the margin quality could compress and weaken the fundamental backing for this security.
With only 1.4% headroom to the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.8-to-1, the current price does not offer adequate compensation for near-term technical risk.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback to below $18.50 would need to materialize to create an entry with more favorable risk geometry and upside exceeding 5%.
CounterVolume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) suggests underlying demand at current price levels, which may support price stability even with minimal upside headroom.
The security is in a falling knife pattern — below all moving averages with a flat 200-day slope — indicating the primary technical trend is working against buyers who enter without waiting for evidence of stabilization.
→StableSetup type
- Expectation
- The falling knife pattern resolves when price sustains above the 200-day moving average for 30 or more consecutive trading days.
CounterAn RSI near 39 suggests proximity to oversold territory, which can precede technical rebounds even before a confirmed trend reversal; and momentum is recovering toward the lower boundary of the acceptable range.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The security benefits from the parent company's strong underlying margins and Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9, but a falling knife technical pattern, a flat 200-day moving average, and near-zero headroom to resistance make this a hold-only situation with no case for fresh accumulation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.1 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 718.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 9.8, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 4.7, Peer rank at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Parent Financial Quality
Trip ifParent net margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractively Valued Low Peg
Trip ifParent forward P/E expands above 15x, suggesting the low-PEG valuation discount has closed.
- P3Near Zero Upside Unfavorable Geometry
Trip ifPrice falls below $18.50 and upside to resistance expands beyond 5%, creating a more attractive entry geometry.
- P4Falling Knife Technical Pattern
Trip ifPrice rises above the 200-day moving average and sustains for more than 30 consecutive trading days.