American Assets Trust delivers exceptional property-level cash generation — free cash flow running at approximately 478% of reported net income — but a four-quarter earnings miss streak averaging approximately 24% below expectations, elevated leverage, and an overbought RSI of 83 within 2.3% of the 52-week high leave only about 0.3% of price headroom to the near-term target, making the current setup uninviting for new capital.
Thesis pillars
- Persistent Earnings Miss Streak↑Improving
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Dividend Yield Sustainability Concern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
American Assets Trust, Inc. (AAT) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
Wait for pullback to $23.86. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $24.30. Engine's entry $23.86 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii; Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (52.0%).
American Assets Trust owns, operates and develops office, retail, multifamily and mixed-use properties in Southern California, Northern California, Washington, Oregon, Texas and Hawaii, with twelve office properties, eleven retail centers, one hotel/retail mixed-use property and... Read more
Wait for pullback to $23.86. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $24.30. Engine's entry $23.86 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii; Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About American Assets Trust, Inc.
About American Assets Trust, Inc.
American Assets Trust owns a diversified portfolio of twelve office properties, eleven retail shopping centers, seven multifamily communities and a 369-room all-suite hotel paired with retail, concentrated in high-barrier-to-entry California, Washington, Oregon, Texas and Hawaii markets. Office properties generated approximately 52% of 2025 net operating income, and leases covering 6.7% of the office, retail and mixed-use retail portfolio's square footage are scheduled to expire in 2026.
The company generates rental revenue from four segments - office, retail, multifamily and mixed-use - under a mix of gross and net lease structures typical of West Coast commercial real estate. Its three largest office tenants, Google LLC, LPL Holdings and Autodesk, together represent approximately 31% of the office portfolio's annualized base rent, while its largest retail anchors, Lowe's, Sprouts Farmers Market and Marshalls, account for roughly 11.7% of retail annualized base rent combined. Many retail leases carry co-tenancy and go-dark provisions that let tenants reduce rent or cease operations if anchor occupancy or minimum occupancy thresholds are not met. As of February 6, 2026, the company carried $1.70 billion of total debt, including a $500 million credit facility split between a $400 million revolving line and a $100 million term loan, subject to covenants restricting additional indebtedness and distributions.
Show full overview
Beyond its tenant and geographic profile, American Assets Trust faces secular exposure tied to office demand: the 10-K flags that remote work, flexible schedules and shared office space could erode long-term demand for the roughly half of net operating income the office segment supplies. The filing also notes that a bankruptcy or insolvency among Google, LPL Holdings or Autodesk, which together anchor nearly a third of office annualized base rent, could trigger federal bankruptcy-law protections limiting the company's ability to evict or recover unpaid rent, a risk concentrated by the small number of named tenants rather than the broader office portfolio.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
From American Assets Trust, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — American Assets Trust, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS AAT Maintained by Morgan Stanley -- Price Target Raised to $24 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS American Assets (AAT) Q3 2025 Earnings Transcript - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool neutral
- NEWS American Assets Trust stock reaches 52-week high at $21.41 By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada positive
- NEWS American Assets Trust stock reaches 52-week high at $21.41 - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS AAT Q2'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 110.64M USD - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T06:22:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our properties are concentrated in California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii, which exposes us to greater economic risks'
- HIGHPropertyoffice properties52%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 52% of our net operating income was from our office properties'
- MEDIUMTenantGoogle LLC, LPL Holdings and Autodesk31%10-K Item 1A: 'the three largest tenants in our office portfolio - Google LLC, LPL Holdings, Inc. and Autodesk, Inc. - represented approximately 31% of the total annualized base rent'
- LOWTenantLowe's, Sprouts Farmers Market and Marshalls12%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest anchor tenants were Lowe's, Sprouts Farmers Market and Marshalls, which together represented approximately 11.7% of our total annualized base rent'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $23.86. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $24.30. Engine's entry $23.86 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii; Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $25.45 (+4.7%), stop $22.86 (−6.3%), A.R:R -3.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $25.45 (-17.8% upside). Target $25.45 (+4.7%), stop $22.86 (−6.3%), A.R:R -3.6:1. Stop-loss: $22.86.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii; Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
American Assets Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 81.0 (forward 33.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
10 analysts cover AAT with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $24.
What does American Assets Trust, Inc. do?American Assets Trust owns, operates and develops office, retail, multifamily and mixed-use properties in Southern...
American Assets Trust owns, operates and develops office, retail, multifamily and mixed-use properties in Southern California, Northern California, Washington, Oregon, Texas and Hawaii, with twelve office properties, eleven retail centers, one hotel/retail mixed-use property and seven multifamily properties. The company earns rental income across four segments, with approximately 52% of 2025 net operating income from office properties.