Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
- ▸Attractively valued
ZBRA · Why this verdict
Why Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Zebra Technologies combines a strong earnings beat record and attractive valuation at 11.6x forward earnings with exceptional free cash flow conversion, but a confirmed death-cross technical breakdown with a -4.7% monthly moving average slope and elevated short interest create meaningful near-term downside risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Zebra has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.9%, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.51 — indicating that earnings growth is not fully reflected in the current price. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next 4 quarters, and the stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 15x as the technical setup improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA low PEG of 0.51 may reflect the market pricing in slowing revenue growth of 6.1%; the discount to intrinsic value may persist if customers delay capital spending on enterprise hardware. | ||
Zebra's 200-day moving average is declining at -4.7% per 30 days with a confirmed death-cross pattern and RSI at 43 — the technical structure signals sustained institutional selling despite the improving on-balance volume indicator. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope returns to flat or positive within 6 months, and price closes above the 200-day average for at least 10 consecutive trading days. | →Stable |
| CounterA -4.7% monthly MA slope is a meaningful rate of decline; the improving on-balance volume could be a short-term phenomenon that reverses if the broader technology sector weakens. | ||
Zebra converts 134% of net income into free cash flow with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating that operating cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a structural quality advantage in a capital-light enterprise technology model. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next 4 quarters, supporting continued balance sheet strength. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated free cash flow relative to net income may reflect deferred tax benefits or working capital tailwinds that normalize over time, particularly as enterprise customers optimize inventory levels. | ||
Short interest of 10% combined with a put-to-call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 69% reflects material bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors have specific concerns about the near-term business trajectory. Key risks | Short interest declines below 6% within 9 months, and put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 as technical conditions improve. | →Stable |
| CounterShort interest at 10% is above typical levels for enterprise technology companies; if the bear case on enterprise spending materializes, these positions could amplify downside pressure through forced covering. | ||
Zebra has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.9%, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.51 — indicating that earnings growth is not fully reflected in the current price.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next 4 quarters, and the stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 15x as the technical setup improves.
CounterA low PEG of 0.51 may reflect the market pricing in slowing revenue growth of 6.1%; the discount to intrinsic value may persist if customers delay capital spending on enterprise hardware.
Zebra's 200-day moving average is declining at -4.7% per 30 days with a confirmed death-cross pattern and RSI at 43 — the technical structure signals sustained institutional selling despite the improving on-balance volume indicator.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope returns to flat or positive within 6 months, and price closes above the 200-day average for at least 10 consecutive trading days.
CounterA -4.7% monthly MA slope is a meaningful rate of decline; the improving on-balance volume could be a short-term phenomenon that reverses if the broader technology sector weakens.
Zebra converts 134% of net income into free cash flow with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating that operating cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a structural quality advantage in a capital-light enterprise technology model.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next 4 quarters, supporting continued balance sheet strength.
CounterElevated free cash flow relative to net income may reflect deferred tax benefits or working capital tailwinds that normalize over time, particularly as enterprise customers optimize inventory levels.
Short interest of 10% combined with a put-to-call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 69% reflects material bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors have specific concerns about the near-term business trajectory.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 6% within 9 months, and put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 as technical conditions improve.
CounterShort interest at 10% is above typical levels for enterprise technology companies; if the bear case on enterprise spending materializes, these positions could amplify downside pressure through forced covering.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 3.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 134% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.30 (n=6)
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $875,595 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $165
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(6)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.24
Upside
+18.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.63>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.5, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Peer rank at 4.0, and Growth at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Zebra's 200-day moving average is declining at -4.7% per 30 days with a confirmed death-cross pattern and RSI at 43 — the technical structure signals sustained institutional selling despite the improving on-balance volume indicator.
Trip ifPrice drops below $215, declining more than 10% from the current $240.05, while the 200-day MA slope remains below -3% per 30 days.
- P2Zebra has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.9%, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.51 — indicating that earnings growth is not fully reflected in the current price.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Zebra converts 134% of net income into free cash flow with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating that operating cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a structural quality advantage in a capital-light enterprise technology model.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion drops below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Short interest of 10% combined with a put-to-call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 69% reflects material bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors have specific concerns about the near-term business trajectory.
Trip ifShort interest rises above 15% of the float, exceeding the current 10% level.