Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.59
ZBRA · Why this verdict
Why Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Zebra Technologies combines a strong earnings beat record and attractive valuation at 11.6x forward earnings with exceptional free cash flow conversion, but a confirmed death-cross technical breakdown with a -4.7% monthly moving average slope and elevated short interest create meaningful near-term downside risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Zebra has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.9%, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.51 — indicating that earnings growth is not fully reflected in the current price. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next 4 quarters, and the stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 15x as the technical setup improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA low PEG of 0.51 may reflect the market pricing in slowing revenue growth of 6.1%; the discount to intrinsic value may persist if customers delay capital spending on enterprise hardware. | ||
Zebra's 200-day moving average is declining at -4.7% per 30 days with a confirmed death-cross pattern and RSI at 43 — the technical structure signals sustained institutional selling despite the improving on-balance volume indicator. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope returns to flat or positive within 6 months, and price closes above the 200-day average for at least 10 consecutive trading days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA -4.7% monthly MA slope is a meaningful rate of decline; the improving on-balance volume could be a short-term phenomenon that reverses if the broader technology sector weakens. | ||
Zebra converts 134% of net income into free cash flow with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating that operating cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a structural quality advantage in a capital-light enterprise technology model. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next 4 quarters, supporting continued balance sheet strength. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated free cash flow relative to net income may reflect deferred tax benefits or working capital tailwinds that normalize over time, particularly as enterprise customers optimize inventory levels. | ||
Short interest of 10% combined with a put-to-call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 69% reflects material bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors have specific concerns about the near-term business trajectory. Key risks | Short interest declines below 6% within 9 months, and put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 as technical conditions improve. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShort interest at 10% is above typical levels for enterprise technology companies; if the bear case on enterprise spending materializes, these positions could amplify downside pressure through forced covering. | ||
Zebra has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.9%, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.51 — indicating that earnings growth is not fully reflected in the current price.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next 4 quarters, and the stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 15x as the technical setup improves.
CounterA low PEG of 0.51 may reflect the market pricing in slowing revenue growth of 6.1%; the discount to intrinsic value may persist if customers delay capital spending on enterprise hardware.
Zebra's 200-day moving average is declining at -4.7% per 30 days with a confirmed death-cross pattern and RSI at 43 — the technical structure signals sustained institutional selling despite the improving on-balance volume indicator.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope returns to flat or positive within 6 months, and price closes above the 200-day average for at least 10 consecutive trading days.
CounterA -4.7% monthly MA slope is a meaningful rate of decline; the improving on-balance volume could be a short-term phenomenon that reverses if the broader technology sector weakens.
Zebra converts 134% of net income into free cash flow with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating that operating cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a structural quality advantage in a capital-light enterprise technology model.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next 4 quarters, supporting continued balance sheet strength.
CounterElevated free cash flow relative to net income may reflect deferred tax benefits or working capital tailwinds that normalize over time, particularly as enterprise customers optimize inventory levels.
Short interest of 10% combined with a put-to-call ratio of 1.56 and implied volatility of 69% reflects material bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors have specific concerns about the near-term business trajectory.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 6% within 9 months, and put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 as technical conditions improve.
CounterShort interest at 10% is above typical levels for enterprise technology companies; if the bear case on enterprise spending materializes, these positions could amplify downside pressure through forced covering.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 2.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 20% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,502,040 (0.009% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 7.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $200
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.39
Upside
+2.4%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.61>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.39 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 4.5, Insider at 4.9, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Death Cross Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below $215, declining more than 10% from the current $240.05, while the 200-day MA slope remains below -3% per 30 days.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Valuation
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Exceptional Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion drops below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Put Call
Trip ifShort interest rises above 15% of the float, exceeding the current 10% level.