Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
YPF · Why this verdict
Why YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
YPF is an Argentine integrated oil and gas company generating 43% revenue growth year-over-year and trading at a forward P/E of 9.3x, but it has missed earnings in 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average negative surprise of 147%, carries below-average business quality at 3.0, and shows free cash flow burning at negative 6% of revenue.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is burning at negative 6% of revenue, and the quality score of 3.0 sits below the 4.0 minimum threshold, with zero ROE and zero net margin scores, indicating the company is consuming capital faster than it generates it despite the top-line growth rate. Quality breakdown | FCF turns positive, above 0% of revenue, within 12 months as capital expenditure on Vaca Muerta shale investments begins to generate cash returns. | →Stable |
| CounterIntegrated energy companies in development-phase shale programs routinely remain free cash flow negative for multiple years as they fund well completions, and YPF's negative FCF may be structurally necessary for the growth thesis to play out. | ||
Revenue grew 43% year-over-year, ranking YPF as the industry growth leader among peers, yet EPS has missed consensus expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 147%, including a 314% miss in February 2026, indicating that revenue growth is not translating into predictable earnings. Earnings | EPS surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and average negative surprise shrinks to less than 20%, demonstrating that cost discipline is catching up to revenue growth. | →Stable |
| CounterArgentine peso devaluations and sovereign debt restructurings historically create massive accounting distortions in reporting that generate large EPS misses even when operating performance is healthy. | ||
Positive news sentiment of plus 1.00 and an analyst upside of roughly 7% to consensus target reflect cautious optimism about Argentina's macroeconomic stabilization, but the put-to-call ratio of 1.46 and elevated implied volatility signal that options market participants are paying to hedge Argentine sovereign risk. Risk breakdown | Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 within 12 months if Argentina's macroeconomic environment stabilizes and the Argentine peso strengthens. | →Stable |
| CounterArgentine sovereign risk has historically been underestimated before default cycles, and the current positive sentiment may be premature given the country's track record of fiscal and currency instability. | ||
The stock has reached its analyst price target with negative 6.2% implied upside and a negative asymmetry ratio of negative 0.42, meaning current holders assume 15% downside risk against essentially zero additional upside according to consensus models. Warnings | Analyst consensus target rises above $60 within 12 months as the revenue growth trajectory attracts earnings upgrades that outpace current pessimism. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for Argentine ADRs are revised aggressively downward during periods of peso weakness or political instability, so the 6.2% negative upside may understate the risk of target cuts. | ||
Free cash flow is burning at negative 6% of revenue, and the quality score of 3.0 sits below the 4.0 minimum threshold, with zero ROE and zero net margin scores, indicating the company is consuming capital faster than it generates it despite the top-line growth rate.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF turns positive, above 0% of revenue, within 12 months as capital expenditure on Vaca Muerta shale investments begins to generate cash returns.
CounterIntegrated energy companies in development-phase shale programs routinely remain free cash flow negative for multiple years as they fund well completions, and YPF's negative FCF may be structurally necessary for the growth thesis to play out.
Revenue grew 43% year-over-year, ranking YPF as the industry growth leader among peers, yet EPS has missed consensus expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 147%, including a 314% miss in February 2026, indicating that revenue growth is not translating into predictable earnings.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and average negative surprise shrinks to less than 20%, demonstrating that cost discipline is catching up to revenue growth.
CounterArgentine peso devaluations and sovereign debt restructurings historically create massive accounting distortions in reporting that generate large EPS misses even when operating performance is healthy.
Positive news sentiment of plus 1.00 and an analyst upside of roughly 7% to consensus target reflect cautious optimism about Argentina's macroeconomic stabilization, but the put-to-call ratio of 1.46 and elevated implied volatility signal that options market participants are paying to hedge Argentine sovereign risk.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 within 12 months if Argentina's macroeconomic environment stabilizes and the Argentine peso strengthens.
CounterArgentine sovereign risk has historically been underestimated before default cycles, and the current positive sentiment may be premature given the country's track record of fiscal and currency instability.
The stock has reached its analyst price target with negative 6.2% implied upside and a negative asymmetry ratio of negative 0.42, meaning current holders assume 15% downside risk against essentially zero additional upside according to consensus models.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $60 within 12 months as the revenue growth trajectory attracts earnings upgrades that outpace current pessimism.
CounterAnalyst targets for Argentine ADRs are revised aggressively downward during periods of peso weakness or political instability, so the 6.2% negative upside may understate the risk of target cuts.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.0 |
| Op margin | 7.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 43% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.7 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 19)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $4,192 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.18
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.94
Upside
+8.5%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.1, and Technical at 8.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Momentum at 2.7, and Quality at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue grew 43% year-over-year, ranking YPF as the industry growth leader among peers, yet EPS has missed consensus expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 147%, including a 314% miss in February 2026, indicating that revenue growth is not translating into predictable earnings.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 50% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the miss pattern is worsening rather than normalizing.
- P2Free cash flow is burning at negative 6% of revenue, and the quality score of 3.0 sits below the 4.0 minimum threshold, with zero ROE and zero net margin scores, indicating the company is consuming capital faster than it generates it despite the top-line growth rate.
Trip ifFCF remains below negative 10% of revenue for at least 2 consecutive quarters, indicating capital burn is accelerating.
- P3Positive news sentiment of plus 1.00 and an analyst upside of roughly 7% to consensus target reflect cautious optimism about Argentina's macroeconomic stabilization, but the put-to-call ratio of 1.46 and elevated implied volatility signal that options market participants are paying to hedge Argentine sovereign risk.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 2.0, exceeding the current 1.46 level by more than 37%.
- P4The stock has reached its analyst price target with negative 6.2% implied upside and a negative asymmetry ratio of negative 0.42, meaning current holders assume 15% downside risk against essentially zero additional upside according to consensus models.
Trip ifPrice falls below $48.91 stop-loss, declining more than 7% from the current $52.59.