Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.74
WYNN · Why this verdict
Why Wynn Resorts (WYNN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Wynn Resorts has delivered strong revenue growth with a Piotroski score of 8/9 and carries 28% analyst upside potential, but has missed earnings estimates in all four of the last quarters by an average of nearly 14%, is trading below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed death cross, and carries an elevated put/call ratio of 2.25 — creating a high-uncertainty setup despite the growth profile.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.25 indicates options market participants are heavily positioned for further downside — a bearish signal that compounds the risk from the death cross and earnings miss pattern. Key risks | Put/call ratio declines below 1.5 within 3 months as the earnings miss cycle bottoms and bearish positioning unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios at multi-quarter lows in casino stocks with 28% analyst upside have historically been a reliable contrarian indicator — maximum pessimism often precedes bottoms. | ||
Wynn Resorts has missed earnings expectations in every one of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of -13.8%, most recently missing by 7.7% and 20.7%, indicating a persistent inability to meet analyst revenue and profitability models. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the average miss narrows to less than -5%. | →Stable |
| CounterCasino operators in recovery mode frequently face temporary cost headwinds and demand normalization that suppress near-term earnings; the miss streak may be reaching its end as China-facing operations recover. | ||
Analysts project approximately 28% upside to the current price, but the stock is in a confirmed death cross below its 200-day moving average — a structural contradiction where the fundamental valuation opportunity conflicts with price action that suggests the market is not yet ready to reprice the stock higher. Engine gate (failed) | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 9 months as earnings stabilize and the death cross resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses in casino stocks with active growth catalysts (new Macau properties, Las Vegas margin recovery) have historically resolved faster than average as institutional buyers step in at valuation support levels. | ||
Despite earnings misses, the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the underlying business maintains broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency dimensions — providing a quality floor that limits downside risk. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming that earnings misses are not translating into balance sheet deterioration. | →Stable |
| CounterCasino companies carry large fixed cost structures and high leverage; if earnings misses persist, free cash flow pressure can quickly compromise the balance sheet metrics underlying the Piotroski score. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.25 indicates options market participants are heavily positioned for further downside — a bearish signal that compounds the risk from the death cross and earnings miss pattern.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declines below 1.5 within 3 months as the earnings miss cycle bottoms and bearish positioning unwinds.
CounterElevated put/call ratios at multi-quarter lows in casino stocks with 28% analyst upside have historically been a reliable contrarian indicator — maximum pessimism often precedes bottoms.
Wynn Resorts has missed earnings expectations in every one of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of -13.8%, most recently missing by 7.7% and 20.7%, indicating a persistent inability to meet analyst revenue and profitability models.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the average miss narrows to less than -5%.
CounterCasino operators in recovery mode frequently face temporary cost headwinds and demand normalization that suppress near-term earnings; the miss streak may be reaching its end as China-facing operations recover.
Analysts project approximately 28% upside to the current price, but the stock is in a confirmed death cross below its 200-day moving average — a structural contradiction where the fundamental valuation opportunity conflicts with price action that suggests the market is not yet ready to reprice the stock higher.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 9 months as earnings stabilize and the death cross resolves.
CounterDeath crosses in casino stocks with active growth catalysts (new Macau properties, Las Vegas margin recovery) have historically resolved faster than average as institutional buyers step in at valuation support levels.
Despite earnings misses, the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the underlying business maintains broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency dimensions — providing a quality floor that limits downside risk.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming that earnings misses are not translating into balance sheet deterioration.
CounterCasino companies carry large fixed cost structures and high leverage; if earnings misses persist, free cash flow pressure can quickly compromise the balance sheet metrics underlying the Piotroski score.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 9.6 |
| Op margin | 6.1 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Rule of 40: 14 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $19,639,516 (0.182% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 0.1 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.98
- ▸Above max pain $70
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 96.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.85
Upside
+19.5%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.85 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.4, Technical at 6.9, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Catalyst at 3.0, and Insider at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wynn Resorts has missed earnings expectations in every one of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of -13.8%, most recently missing by 7.7% and 20.7%, indicating a persistent inability to meet analyst revenue and profitability models.
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, worsening beyond the current -13.8% average.
- P2Analysts project approximately 28% upside to the current price, but the stock is in a confirmed death cross below its 200-day moving average — a structural contradiction where the fundamental valuation opportunity conflicts with price action that suggests the market is not yet ready to reprice the stock higher.
Trip ifPrice drops below $98.54, reaching the stop-loss level and falling more than 7% below the current $105.96.
- P3Despite earnings misses, the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the underlying business maintains broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency dimensions — providing a quality floor that limits downside risk.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6, declining more than 2 points from the current 8 out of 9.
- P4An elevated put/call ratio of 2.25 indicates options market participants are heavily positioned for further downside — a bearish signal that compounds the risk from the death cross and earnings miss pattern.
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0, exceeding the current elevated 2.25 by more than 0.75 points and indicating further escalation of bearish positioning.