Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.62
WYNN · Why this verdict
Why Wynn Resorts (WYNN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Wynn Resorts has delivered strong revenue growth with a Piotroski score of 8/9 and carries 28% analyst upside potential, but has missed earnings estimates in all four of the last quarters by an average of nearly 14%, is trading below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed death cross, and carries an elevated put/call ratio of 2.25 — creating a high-uncertainty setup despite the growth profile.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.25 indicates options market participants are heavily positioned for further downside — a bearish signal that compounds the risk from the death cross and earnings miss pattern. Key risks | Put/call ratio declines below 1.5 within 3 months as the earnings miss cycle bottoms and bearish positioning unwinds. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios at multi-quarter lows in casino stocks with 28% analyst upside have historically been a reliable contrarian indicator — maximum pessimism often precedes bottoms. | ||
Wynn Resorts has missed earnings expectations in every one of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of -13.8%, most recently missing by 7.7% and 20.7%, indicating a persistent inability to meet analyst revenue and profitability models. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the average miss narrows to less than -5%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCasino operators in recovery mode frequently face temporary cost headwinds and demand normalization that suppress near-term earnings; the miss streak may be reaching its end as China-facing operations recover. | ||
Analysts project approximately 28% upside to the current price, but the stock is in a confirmed death cross below its 200-day moving average — a structural contradiction where the fundamental valuation opportunity conflicts with price action that suggests the market is not yet ready to reprice the stock higher. Engine gate (failed) | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 9 months as earnings stabilize and the death cross resolves. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses in casino stocks with active growth catalysts (new Macau properties, Las Vegas margin recovery) have historically resolved faster than average as institutional buyers step in at valuation support levels. | ||
Despite earnings misses, the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the underlying business maintains broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency dimensions — providing a quality floor that limits downside risk. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming that earnings misses are not translating into balance sheet deterioration. | →Stable |
| CounterCasino companies carry large fixed cost structures and high leverage; if earnings misses persist, free cash flow pressure can quickly compromise the balance sheet metrics underlying the Piotroski score. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.25 indicates options market participants are heavily positioned for further downside — a bearish signal that compounds the risk from the death cross and earnings miss pattern.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declines below 1.5 within 3 months as the earnings miss cycle bottoms and bearish positioning unwinds.
CounterElevated put/call ratios at multi-quarter lows in casino stocks with 28% analyst upside have historically been a reliable contrarian indicator — maximum pessimism often precedes bottoms.
Wynn Resorts has missed earnings expectations in every one of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of -13.8%, most recently missing by 7.7% and 20.7%, indicating a persistent inability to meet analyst revenue and profitability models.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the average miss narrows to less than -5%.
CounterCasino operators in recovery mode frequently face temporary cost headwinds and demand normalization that suppress near-term earnings; the miss streak may be reaching its end as China-facing operations recover.
Analysts project approximately 28% upside to the current price, but the stock is in a confirmed death cross below its 200-day moving average — a structural contradiction where the fundamental valuation opportunity conflicts with price action that suggests the market is not yet ready to reprice the stock higher.
Tripped→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 9 months as earnings stabilize and the death cross resolves.
CounterDeath crosses in casino stocks with active growth catalysts (new Macau properties, Las Vegas margin recovery) have historically resolved faster than average as institutional buyers step in at valuation support levels.
Despite earnings misses, the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the underlying business maintains broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency dimensions — providing a quality floor that limits downside risk.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming that earnings misses are not translating into balance sheet deterioration.
CounterCasino companies carry large fixed cost structures and high leverage; if earnings misses persist, free cash flow pressure can quickly compromise the balance sheet metrics underlying the Piotroski score.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 9.6 |
| Op margin | 6.1 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Rule of 40: 14 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 8.9 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $15,686,181 (0.156% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $70
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.13
Upside
+26.1%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:5.1>=1.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.8; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Growth at 7.4, and Value at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Catalyst at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, worsening beyond the current -13.8% average.
- P2Analyst Upside Vs Death CrossTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below $98.54, reaching the stop-loss level and falling more than 7% below the current $105.96.
- P3Strong Piotroski Quality Base
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6, declining more than 2 points from the current 8 out of 9.
- P4Elevated Put Call Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0, exceeding the current elevated 2.25 by more than 0.75 points and indicating further escalation of bearish positioning.