Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.78
- ▸Attractively valued
WFRD · Why this verdict
Why Weatherford International (WFRD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Weatherford International has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 21%, carries a 31% return on equity, and trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 13.3x — but weak price momentum, a 21% analyst upside projection that is not yet reflected in the stock's current trajectory, and an elevated put/call ratio suggest patience is required.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A 31% return on equity combined with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and strong peer-group rankings in both value and quality dimensions indicates that Weatherford is generating above-average returns on its capital base for an oilfield services business. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 20% for at least 2 consecutive reported annual periods, confirming the improved returns are durable rather than a one-cycle aberration. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh return on equity in oilfield services is often a cyclical peak phenomenon; as drilling activity normalizes, margins and returns typically compress toward industry averages, eroding the quality premium. | ||
Weatherford has delivered earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 21.3%, including 40.5% and 29.9% beats in the two most recent reported quarters — a pattern that signals management's operational execution is running ahead of consensus expectations. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 4 of the next 5 quarters, with positive surprise percentages averaging above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss in the recent period was -6.1%, suggesting the business is not immune to quarterly volatility; analysts may raise estimates in response to the large beats, making future outperformance harder to achieve. | ||
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's price momentum score of 3.0 falls below the minimum entry threshold, with falling on-balance volume and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.29 — indicating the market is cautiously positioned despite the positive earnings track record. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 4.5 and the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within the next 60 trading days as investors gain confidence in the earnings trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterThe pullback to RSI 35 from prior overbought levels may represent a healthy uptrend retracement rather than a momentum breakdown; the strong technical support reading of 7.9 suggests the stock is near a support zone. | ||
Revenue declined approximately 3% year-over-year while earnings grew strongly, implying meaningful margin expansion and cost discipline — a positive business quality development, though revenue shrinkage limits the growth narrative. Growth breakdown | Revenue returns to year-over-year growth above 5% within 2 reported quarters as oilfield activity recovers, while margins remain at or above current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterDeclining revenue in oilfield services typically reflects lower drilling activity, which is often a leading indicator of further earnings pressure; the margin expansion may reverse if volumes continue declining. | ||
A 31% return on equity combined with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and strong peer-group rankings in both value and quality dimensions indicates that Weatherford is generating above-average returns on its capital base for an oilfield services business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 20% for at least 2 consecutive reported annual periods, confirming the improved returns are durable rather than a one-cycle aberration.
CounterHigh return on equity in oilfield services is often a cyclical peak phenomenon; as drilling activity normalizes, margins and returns typically compress toward industry averages, eroding the quality premium.
Weatherford has delivered earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 21.3%, including 40.5% and 29.9% beats in the two most recent reported quarters — a pattern that signals management's operational execution is running ahead of consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 4 of the next 5 quarters, with positive surprise percentages averaging above 10%.
CounterThe one miss in the recent period was -6.1%, suggesting the business is not immune to quarterly volatility; analysts may raise estimates in response to the large beats, making future outperformance harder to achieve.
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's price momentum score of 3.0 falls below the minimum entry threshold, with falling on-balance volume and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.29 — indicating the market is cautiously positioned despite the positive earnings track record.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 and the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within the next 60 trading days as investors gain confidence in the earnings trajectory.
CounterThe pullback to RSI 35 from prior overbought levels may represent a healthy uptrend retracement rather than a momentum breakdown; the strong technical support reading of 7.9 suggests the stock is near a support zone.
Revenue declined approximately 3% year-over-year while earnings grew strongly, implying meaningful margin expansion and cost discipline — a positive business quality development, though revenue shrinkage limits the growth narrative.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue returns to year-over-year growth above 5% within 2 reported quarters as oilfield activity recovers, while margins remain at or above current levels.
CounterDeclining revenue in oilfield services typically reflects lower drilling activity, which is often a leading indicator of further earnings pressure; the margin expansion may reverse if volumes continue declining.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.2 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+8.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 5.4 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 130.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.37
Upside
+25.1%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 26d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5. Top dim: Technical at 8.1; weakest: Momentum at 1.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.1, Value at 8.0, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Peer rank at 4.2, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weatherford has delivered earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 21.3%, including 40.5% and 29.9% beats in the two most recent reported quarters — a pattern that signals management's operational execution is running ahead of consensus expectations.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2A 31% return on equity combined with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and strong peer-group rankings in both value and quality dimensions indicates that Weatherford is generating above-average returns on its capital base for an oilfield services business.
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% for at least 2 consecutive reported annual periods.
- P3Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's price momentum score of 3.0 falls below the minimum entry threshold, with falling on-balance volume and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.29 — indicating the market is cautiously positioned despite the positive earnings track record.
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0 or momentum score falls below 2.5 for more than 30 consecutive trading days.
- P4Revenue declined approximately 3% year-over-year while earnings grew strongly, implying meaningful margin expansion and cost discipline — a positive business quality development, though revenue shrinkage limits the growth narrative.
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 10% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters.