Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.76
- ▸Attractively valued
WFRD · Why this verdict
Why Weatherford International (WFRD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Weatherford International has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 21%, carries a 31% return on equity, and trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 13.3x — but weak price momentum, a 21% analyst upside projection that is not yet reflected in the stock's current trajectory, and an elevated put/call ratio suggest patience is required.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A 31% return on equity combined with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and strong peer-group rankings in both value and quality dimensions indicates that Weatherford is generating above-average returns on its capital base for an oilfield services business. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 20% for at least 2 consecutive reported annual periods, confirming the improved returns are durable rather than a one-cycle aberration. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh return on equity in oilfield services is often a cyclical peak phenomenon; as drilling activity normalizes, margins and returns typically compress toward industry averages, eroding the quality premium. | ||
Weatherford has delivered earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 21.3%, including 40.5% and 29.9% beats in the two most recent reported quarters — a pattern that signals management's operational execution is running ahead of consensus expectations. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 4 of the next 5 quarters, with positive surprise percentages averaging above 10%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe one miss in the recent period was -6.1%, suggesting the business is not immune to quarterly volatility; analysts may raise estimates in response to the large beats, making future outperformance harder to achieve. | ||
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's price momentum score of 3.0 falls below the minimum entry threshold, with falling on-balance volume and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.29 — indicating the market is cautiously positioned despite the positive earnings track record. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 4.5 and the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within the next 60 trading days as investors gain confidence in the earnings trajectory. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe pullback to RSI 35 from prior overbought levels may represent a healthy uptrend retracement rather than a momentum breakdown; the strong technical support reading of 7.9 suggests the stock is near a support zone. | ||
Revenue declined approximately 3% year-over-year while earnings grew strongly, implying meaningful margin expansion and cost discipline — a positive business quality development, though revenue shrinkage limits the growth narrative. Growth breakdown | Revenue returns to year-over-year growth above 5% within 2 reported quarters as oilfield activity recovers, while margins remain at or above current levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeclining revenue in oilfield services typically reflects lower drilling activity, which is often a leading indicator of further earnings pressure; the margin expansion may reverse if volumes continue declining. | ||
A 31% return on equity combined with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and strong peer-group rankings in both value and quality dimensions indicates that Weatherford is generating above-average returns on its capital base for an oilfield services business.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 20% for at least 2 consecutive reported annual periods, confirming the improved returns are durable rather than a one-cycle aberration.
CounterHigh return on equity in oilfield services is often a cyclical peak phenomenon; as drilling activity normalizes, margins and returns typically compress toward industry averages, eroding the quality premium.
Weatherford has delivered earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 21.3%, including 40.5% and 29.9% beats in the two most recent reported quarters — a pattern that signals management's operational execution is running ahead of consensus expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 4 of the next 5 quarters, with positive surprise percentages averaging above 10%.
CounterThe one miss in the recent period was -6.1%, suggesting the business is not immune to quarterly volatility; analysts may raise estimates in response to the large beats, making future outperformance harder to achieve.
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's price momentum score of 3.0 falls below the minimum entry threshold, with falling on-balance volume and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.29 — indicating the market is cautiously positioned despite the positive earnings track record.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 and the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within the next 60 trading days as investors gain confidence in the earnings trajectory.
CounterThe pullback to RSI 35 from prior overbought levels may represent a healthy uptrend retracement rather than a momentum breakdown; the strong technical support reading of 7.9 suggests the stock is near a support zone.
Revenue declined approximately 3% year-over-year while earnings grew strongly, implying meaningful margin expansion and cost discipline — a positive business quality development, though revenue shrinkage limits the growth narrative.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue returns to year-over-year growth above 5% within 2 reported quarters as oilfield activity recovers, while margins remain at or above current levels.
CounterDeclining revenue in oilfield services typically reflects lower drilling activity, which is often a leading indicator of further earnings pressure; the margin expansion may reverse if volumes continue declining.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.2 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=10)
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 5.4 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.66
Upside
+21.6%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.66 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.9, Value at 7.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.2, Technical at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Momentum
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Strong Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% for at least 2 consecutive reported annual periods.
- P3Weak Momentum Elevated Put Call
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0 or momentum score falls below 2.5 for more than 30 consecutive trading days.
- P4Revenue Decline Offset By Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 10% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters.