Should you buy WaFd (WAFD)?
Updated
WaFd trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.40 and strong momentum, but has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters and a recent news-driven downgrade to a cautious hold stance reflects deteriorating near-term sentiment.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WaFd's forward P/E of 10.7x and PEG ratio of 0.40 suggest the stock is priced at a meaningful discount to its earnings growth rate, offering potential value for patient holders if the growth trajectory can be maintained. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E remains below 13x and analyst price targets hold above $40 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow PEG ratios at small regional banks can be misleading if the earnings growth estimate is inflated by a one-time interest rate benefit; sustainable growth below that rate would make the valuation less compelling. | ||
WaFd missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with actual EPS falling below consensus in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting that execution consistency has been a challenge even as the forward valuation looks attractive. Earnings | Earnings misses stop and the company beats or meets consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a beat with a 9.3% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may have been a temporary setback rather than a structural problem. | ||
WaFd's price is above all major moving averages with a golden cross formation, rising on-balance-volume, and a bullish MACD reading, placing it in a technical breakout setup despite the negative near-term news modifier. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 90 days over the next 12 months without a confirmed death cross. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry ratio is -2.08 with the stock priced more than 14% above analyst price targets, meaning the technical breakout is occurring at levels where fundamental valuation provides no support. | ||
WaFd's forward P/E of 10.7x and PEG ratio of 0.40 suggest the stock is priced at a meaningful discount to its earnings growth rate, offering potential value for patient holders if the growth trajectory can be maintained.
→Stable- Expectation
- The forward P/E remains below 13x and analyst price targets hold above $40 over the next 12 months.
CounterLow PEG ratios at small regional banks can be misleading if the earnings growth estimate is inflated by a one-time interest rate benefit; sustainable growth below that rate would make the valuation less compelling.
WaFd missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with actual EPS falling below consensus in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting that execution consistency has been a challenge even as the forward valuation looks attractive.
→Stable- Expectation
- Earnings misses stop and the company beats or meets consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a beat with a 9.3% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may have been a temporary setback rather than a structural problem.
WaFd's price is above all major moving averages with a golden cross formation, rising on-balance-volume, and a bullish MACD reading, placing it in a technical breakout setup despite the negative near-term news modifier.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 90 days over the next 12 months without a confirmed death cross.
CounterThe asymmetry ratio is -2.08 with the stock priced more than 14% above analyst price targets, meaning the technical breakout is occurring at levels where fundamental valuation provides no support.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
WaFd's Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and net margins of 34% indicate a financially sound institution with improving balance sheet metrics, which provides a fundamental cushion against the near-term earnings inconsistency.
→Stable- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at or above 7 out of 9 through the next two annual reporting cycles.
CounterStrong Piotroski scores at banks can lag the real-time credit quality picture; loan portfolio stress is often not reflected in backward-looking financial ratios until losses materialize.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1WaFd's forward P/E of 10.7x and PEG ratio of 0.40 suggest the stock is priced at a meaningful discount to its earnings growth rate, offering potential value for patient holders if the growth trajectory can be maintained.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $32, more than 12% below the current price of $36.59.
- P2WaFd missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with actual EPS falling below consensus in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting that execution consistency has been a challenge even as the forward valuation looks attractive.
Trip ifEPS falls below $0.65 in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating an acceleration of the miss trend.
- P3WaFd's price is above all major moving averages with a golden cross formation, rising on-balance-volume, and a bullish MACD reading, placing it in a technical breakout setup despite the negative near-term news modifier.
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below it for more than 30 consecutive days.
- P4WaFd's Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and net margins of 34% indicate a financially sound institution with improving balance sheet metrics, which provides a fundamental cushion against the near-term earnings inconsistency.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 out of 9, indicating deterioration in balance sheet quality.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.7/10 at $37.69. None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) cleared their gates — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals rather than directional conviction.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $37.69, with structural invalidation at $36.36. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is -0.27 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
On the bull side: Attractive valuation. On the bear side: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Active engine warnings: V8: Target reached (-16.7% upside), L3:NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING, V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE.
The dominant failed gate is reward-to-risk (NEGATIVE). SELL flips back toward HOLD if reward-to-risk recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates WAFD — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Attractive valuation
Bear case
- ▸Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- ▸Near 52-week high (2.2% away)
- ▸Consecutive earnings misses (2)