HIGHBuilt-inCommodity
62%
natural gas
“10-K Item 1: 'Natural Gas| | CCGT, CT or ST| | 26,989 | | | 62%'”
VST · Concentration risk · 10-K extracted
Vistra (VST) concentration risks
Updated
The most significant concentration Vistra discloses is natural gas at 62%, classified HIGH by disclosed size. Below: the full set from the latest 10-K — verbatim quotes, filing references, and a synthesis of what these exposures mean together.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Source: Vistra’s SEC Form 10-K filed — view the filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
At a glance
Disclosed-size breakdown · 2 disclosed concentrations
HIGH1
MEDIUM1
LOW0
Disclosed concentrations
Each card carries a disclosed-size chip (HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW — how large the exposure is as a share of revenue, not how dangerous it is) and a nature tag: Built-in(the company’s own model, geography, or products) or Outside party (an external customer, supplier, or distributor it relies on).
MEDIUMBuilt-inGeographic
Texas
“10-K Item 1: 'The largest portion of our retail operations are in Texas, where we provide retail electricity to approximately 2.6 million customers.'”
TrendMatrix Research · concentration synthesis
What these concentrations mean together
updated 2026-06-24The company's concentration profile combines a fuel-type dependency and a geographic market tilt, both of which are structural in character and reflect the composition of the generation portfolio and retail footprint. Natural gas is the largest disclosed fuel type in the generation fleet, a high-share exposure by disclosed size. Because natural gas prices are volatile and the generation economics of combined-cycle, combustion turbine, and steam turbine assets move directly with fuel cost spreads, this fuel concentration is the primary driver of spark spread variability and, by extension, power margin outcomes across the fleet. Geographically, the largest portion of retail operations is in Texas, where the company serves a large retail electricity customer base — a medium-share, structural exposure. Texas operates under a deregulated power market with its own grid operator, meaning the company's retail and wholesale economics are tied to ERCOT market dynamics, including weather-driven demand spikes, capacity market mechanisms, and the evolving renewable build-out that affects power pricing in the region. The two concentrations are complementary rather than offsetting: a significant share of the generation fleet running on natural gas is deployed in the same Texas market, meaning both the fuel cost exposure and the geographic exposure are correlated to ERCOT power prices and Texas energy policy. On balance, natural gas fuel cost dynamics and Texas market conditions are the dominant variables to monitor, as they affect both the generation margin and the retail customer franchise simultaneously.
For the engine’s reasoning on VST’s current verdict — including which dimensions drove the score — see the per-dimension breakdown.
Industry peers · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Peer concentration profile
| Symbol | Name | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporatio | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| VST● | Vistra Corp. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| NRG | NRG Energy, Inc. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Concentration counts reflect items disclosed in each peer’s most recent 10-K; disclosed-size classification uses TrendMatrix’s internal 10-K extraction taxonomy.