Skip to main content

Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Mortgage Finance

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Rocket Companies is a Detroit-based fintech operating Rocket Mortgage (nation's largest mortgage lender by units and servicer with $2.1T portfolio UPB), Redfin real estate brokerage, and Rocket Close title services. Revenue comes from gain-on-sale of loans, mortgage servicing... Read more

$12.68+37.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 4 Mortgage Finance
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-11.65%
Stop $12.01Target $17.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$20.05+58.1%14 analysts
$17.44our TP
$12.68price
$20.05mean
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Rocket Companies, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$36.9B
EV/EBITDA34.3
Profit Mgn2.7%
ROE1.7%
Rev Growth167.1%
Beta2.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV68%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyFannie Mae and Freddie Mac
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is highly dependent on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and certain U.S. government agencies and any changes in these entities or their current roles could be detrimental to our business.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
7.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
7.5
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.38Resistance $16.30

Price Targets

$12
$17
A.Upside+37.5%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RKT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $17.44 (+37.5%), stop $12.01 (−5.6%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RKT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.44 (+37.6% upside). Target $17.44 (+37.5%), stop $12.01 (−5.6%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $12.01.

What are the risks of investing in RKT?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is RKT overvalued or undervalued?

Rocket Companies, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about RKT?

19 analysts cover RKT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Rocket Companies, Inc. do?Rocket Companies is a Detroit-based fintech operating Rocket Mortgage (nation's largest mortgage lender by units and...

Rocket Companies is a Detroit-based fintech operating Rocket Mortgage (nation's largest mortgage lender by units and servicer with $2.1T portfolio UPB), Redfin real estate brokerage, and Rocket Close title services. Revenue comes from gain-on-sale of loans, mortgage servicing income, and software/services fees across ~23,500 team members.

Related stocks: UWMC (UWM Holdings Corporation) · PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services, In) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · FUTU (Futu Holdings Limited) · RDN (Radian Group Inc.)