Should you buy United States Lime & Minerals, (USLM)?
Updated
United States Lime and Minerals is a high-quality building materials company with 35% net margins, a top-ranked return on equity versus peers, and a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9 — but 3 consecutive earnings misses and a news modifier pulling the outlook negative reduce the near-term setup quality.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a PEG ratio of 0.49, the stock appears reasonably priced relative to its earnings growth potential, and analyst price targets imply 25% upside from current levels even after a period of earnings softness. Valuation breakdown | The price should rise to at least $117 within 12 months, consistent with analyst consensus targets, as earnings normalize. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.49 reflects low current earnings expectations that may not recover if revenue continues declining, making the apparent valuation attractiveness more dependent on a growth recovery that has not yet arrived. | ||
United States Lime and Minerals generates 35% net margins and ranks among the best-performing companies in its peer group on both return on equity and margin quality, reflecting pricing power in lime and limestone markets. Quality breakdown | Net margins should remain above 25% over the next 12 months as the company maintains its pricing position in lime markets. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow at only 42% of net income is flagged as a concern, suggesting a portion of reported margins is not converting to spendable cash, which may indicate working capital or capital expenditure intensity. | ||
United States Lime missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 2.9%, suggesting analysts have been systematically too optimistic about the company's near-term earnings trajectory. Earnings | The company should return to beating estimates in at least 1 of the next 2 reported quarters as forecasts are reset to more realistic levels. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declined approximately 4% year-over-year, and the earnings miss pattern may reflect genuine top-line softness that persists until construction and infrastructure demand recovers. | ||
With a PEG ratio of 0.49, the stock appears reasonably priced relative to its earnings growth potential, and analyst price targets imply 25% upside from current levels even after a period of earnings softness.
→Stable- Expectation
- The price should rise to at least $117 within 12 months, consistent with analyst consensus targets, as earnings normalize.
CounterA PEG of 0.49 reflects low current earnings expectations that may not recover if revenue continues declining, making the apparent valuation attractiveness more dependent on a growth recovery that has not yet arrived.
United States Lime and Minerals generates 35% net margins and ranks among the best-performing companies in its peer group on both return on equity and margin quality, reflecting pricing power in lime and limestone markets.
→Stable- Expectation
- Net margins should remain above 25% over the next 12 months as the company maintains its pricing position in lime markets.
CounterFree cash flow at only 42% of net income is flagged as a concern, suggesting a portion of reported margins is not converting to spendable cash, which may indicate working capital or capital expenditure intensity.
United States Lime missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 2.9%, suggesting analysts have been systematically too optimistic about the company's near-term earnings trajectory.
→Stable- Expectation
- The company should return to beating estimates in at least 1 of the next 2 reported quarters as forecasts are reset to more realistic levels.
CounterRevenue declined approximately 4% year-over-year, and the earnings miss pattern may reflect genuine top-line softness that persists until construction and infrastructure demand recovers.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
The stock is below its 200-day moving average but showing MACD improvement, rising on-balance volume, and a mid-range RSI of 52, indicating early signs of recovery from a downtrend while momentum scores remain solid.
→Stable- Expectation
- The price should recross above its 200-day moving average and sustain that level for at least 30 days within the next 12 months.
CounterBeing below the 200-day moving average with a flat slope has previously been the entry point for extended bear phases in cyclical materials stocks, and the death cross formation is a formal technical warning.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1United States Lime and Minerals generates 35% net margins and ranks among the best-performing companies in its peer group on both return on equity and margin quality, reflecting pricing power in lime and limestone markets.
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% in any of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2United States Lime missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 2.9%, suggesting analysts have been systematically too optimistic about the company's near-term earnings trajectory.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3The stock is below its 200-day moving average but showing MACD improvement, rising on-balance volume, and a mid-range RSI of 52, indicating early signs of recovery from a downtrend while momentum scores remain solid.
Trip ifPrice declines to below $102.63, more than 7% below the current $110.35.
- P4With a PEG ratio of 0.49, the stock appears reasonably priced relative to its earnings growth potential, and analyst price targets imply 25% upside from current levels even after a period of earnings softness.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $105, less than 5% above the current $110.35.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for United States Lime & Minerals, (USLM) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.4/10 at $109.22. The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. Asymmetry R:R of 0.09 is supplementary context, not the trigger.
The dominant failed gate is momentum at 4.0 vs threshold 4.5 (with co-failures: reward-to-risk, death cross). SELL flips back toward HOLD if momentum recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is INSIDER:OK.
On the bull side: High-quality business. On the bear side: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-day MA. Active engine warnings: V8: Target reached (0.8% upside), V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5, V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $109.22, with structural invalidation at $101.93. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 0.11 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates USLM — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸High-quality business
Bear case
- ▸Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- ▸Consecutive earnings misses (3)
- ▸Below 200-day MA