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Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.37: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Ultra Clean Holdings supplies critical subsystems, components, parts, and high-purity cleaning services primarily to the semiconductor industry through Products and Services segments. Revenue from OEM customers is highly concentrated, with top-two customers at 58.7% of revenues;... Read more

$78.37+6.3% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#24 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Stop $72.87Target $83.30(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$98.00+25.0%4 analysts
$83.30our TP
$78.37price
$98.00mean
$100

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.37: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and news soft leadership change. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top two customers (58.7%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: international markets (75.9%)
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)19.1
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA33.2
Profit Mgn-8.8%
ROE-20.0%
Rev Growth-10.0%
Beta1.81
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.82bearish
IV89%elevated
Max Pain$30-61.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop two customers59%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top two customers accounted for 58.7%, 54.5% and 57.4% of our revenues for fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHGeographicinternational markets76%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We generated approximately 75.9% and 73.0% of our revenues in international markets for fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    COO Harjinder Bajwa terminated effective immediately Jan 25, 2026. Robert Wunar (former Applied Materials Managing Director) appointed as new COO effective March 23, 2026. No reason cited for termination.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -10%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -8.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.9
Roa
1.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
9.8
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.4
Quality Rank
1.2
Value Rank
9.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.4
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotNEWS SOFT LEADERSHIP CHANGEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $59.00Resistance $84.43

Price Targets

$73
$83
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UCTT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.37: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $72.87. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the UCTT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.30 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $72.87. Stop-loss: $72.87.

What are the risks of investing in UCTT?

Concentration risk — Customer: top two customers (58.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international markets (75.9%); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is UCTT overvalued or undervalued?

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UCTT?

10 analysts cover UCTT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $98.

What does Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. do?Ultra Clean Holdings supplies critical subsystems, components, parts, and high-purity cleaning services primarily to...

Ultra Clean Holdings supplies critical subsystems, components, parts, and high-purity cleaning services primarily to the semiconductor industry through Products and Services segments. Revenue from OEM customers is highly concentrated, with top-two customers at 58.7% of revenues; 75.9% of revenues came from international markets in 2025.

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