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UCTTUltra Clean Holdings, Inc.Sell3.7·$105.40-1.01%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Ultra Clean Holdings supplies semiconductor equipment components with strong price momentum above its 200-day moving average, but a quality score of 2.4 out of 10, negative free cash flow, and nearly 76% of revenue tied to two customers create material concentration and business quality risks.

Thesis pillars

  • Customer Concentration 59 Pct Two ClientsStable
  • Negative Fcf Quality Below FloorStable
  • International Revenue ConcentrationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $105.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality.

Ultra Clean Holdings designs, manufactures, and services critical subsystems and components—including gas delivery systems, chemical delivery modules, and precision robotics—primarily for semiconductor capital equipment OEMs, plus ultra-high purity cleaning and coating services... Read more

$105.40+33.9% A.UpsideScore 3.7/10#24 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.77%
Stop $98.14Target $141.34(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$107.40+1.9%5 analysts
$141.34our TP
$105.40price
$107.40mean
$92
$141

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $105.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.

About Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.

Ultra Clean Holdings' top two customers—Applied Materials, Inc. and Lam Research Corporation—accounted for 58.7% of total revenues in fiscal year 2025, with international revenues representing 75.9% of the total. The company employed 7,411 people as of December 26, 2025, including 3,772 in Asia Pacific and 1,663 in EMEA, across Products and Services segments serving semiconductor capital equipment manufacturers and integrated device makers.

UCT earns revenue through two segments. The Products segment designs, engineers, and manufactures subsystems—including gas delivery systems, chemical delivery modules, fluid delivery systems, precision robotics, frame assemblies, and process modules—primarily for OEM customers who retain ownership of the intellectual property to the products manufactured on their behalf. The Services segment provides ultra-high purity parts cleaning, coating, and micro-contamination analytical services to semiconductor device makers and wafer fabrication equipment markets. For fiscal 2025, approximately 95.7% of revenues came from the semiconductor industry, including IDM, memory, foundry, OEM, and sub-tier suppliers. Principal competitors include Ichor Systems and Fujikin for gas delivery systems, Foxsemicon, Jabil, Celestica, and VDL ETG for critical subsystems, and KoMiCo, SHT, and EnPro for cleaning and coating services. Revenue is closely tied to semiconductor capital expenditure cycles, which have historically been rapid and difficult to predict.

Show full overview

UCT's customer concentration is structurally embedded in the OEM supply chain: Applied Materials and Lam Research each individually accounted for more than 10% of revenues in each of fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025, together reaching 58.7% of fiscal 2025 revenues. The 10-K states that any lost revenue from these customers "would be difficult to replace." Compounding the exposure, most OEM customers own the designs and intellectual property to the products UCT manufactures, leaving them legally free to license those designs to competitors or bring manufacturing in-house without restriction. The Services segment's proprietary cleaning and analytical processes provide some switching friction, but the Products segment carries no analogous protection against customer insourcing or competitor diversion.

See also: Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

From Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-07T13:32:10Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Applied Materials and Lam Research (58.7%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenues (75.9%)
Target reached (-11.5% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)27.0
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA44.8
Profit Mgn-9.4%
ROE-22.5%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta1.83
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV120%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerApplied Materials and Lam Research59%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our two largest revenue customers...were Applied Materials, Inc. and Lam Research Corporation...top two customers accounted for 58.7%...of the Company's revenues for fiscal years 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicinternational revenues76%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our international revenues represented 75.9%...of total revenues for fiscal years ended 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.9
Operating Margin
0.9
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
9.9
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
8.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $81.65Resistance $144.22

Price Targets

$98
$141
A.Upside+34.1%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UCTT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $105.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $98.14. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

What is the UCTT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $141.34 (+33.9% upside). Prior stop was $98.14. Stop-loss: $98.14.

What are the risks of investing in UCTT?

Concentration risk — Customer: Applied Materials and Lam Research (58.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenues (75.9%); Target reached (-11.5% upside).

Is UCTT overvalued or undervalued?

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UCTT?

11 analysts cover UCTT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $107.

What does Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. do?Ultra Clean Holdings designs, manufactures, and services critical subsystems and components—including gas delivery...

Ultra Clean Holdings designs, manufactures, and services critical subsystems and components—including gas delivery systems, chemical delivery modules, and precision robotics—primarily for semiconductor capital equipment OEMs, plus ultra-high purity cleaning and coating services for chip manufacturers. Its two largest customers, Applied Materials and Lam Research, together accounted for 58.7% of fiscal 2025 revenues, with international markets generating 75.9% of the total.

Related stocks: PLAB (Photronics, Inc.) · AMKR (Amkor Technology, Inc.) · AMBA (Ambarella, Inc.) · ACMR (ACM Research, Inc.) · FORM (FormFactor, Inc.)
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