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TUTelus CorporationSell4.5·$10.25+1.38%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Telus Corporation is in a capitulation-risk technical state with RSI at 29 and a confirmed death cross, while missing earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 13.5%, despite a compelling 255% free cash flow conversion ratio and 25% analyst-implied upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Capitulation Risk DowntrendDeteriorating
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternDeteriorating
  • Exceptional Free Cash Flow ConversionImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Telus Corporation (TU) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortHigh Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-07-31). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

TELUS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a telecommunications company in Canada and internationally. It operates through TELUS Technology Solutions, TELUS Health, and TELUS Digital Experience segments. The company offer technology solutions comprising... Read more

$10.25+38.6% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#43 of 45 Telecom Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield15.36%
IncomeYield11.66%(5y avg 6.22%)Payout278.23%at-risk
Stop $9.74Target $14.17(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 7.7:1
Analyst target$16.67+62.6%3 analysts
$14.17our TP
$10.25price
$16.67mean
$22

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 39%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.8
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$16.0B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn4.6%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth-0.6%
Beta0.74
Dividend11.66%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$13+22.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -1%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 6 daysYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.6
Value Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
3.9
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 7.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.95Resistance $11.15

Price Targets

$10
$14
A.Upside+38.6%
A.R:R7.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Prior stop was $9.74. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the TU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.17 (+38.6% upside). Prior stop was $9.74. Stop-loss: $9.74.

What are the risks of investing in TU?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is TU overvalued or undervalued?

Telus Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TU?

24 analysts cover TU with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Telus Corporation do?TELUS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a telecommunications company in Canada and...

TELUS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a telecommunications company in Canada and internationally. It operates through TELUS Technology Solutions, TELUS Health, and TELUS Digital Experience segments. The company offer technology solutions comprising mobile and fixed voice and data telecommunications services and products; and agriculture and consumer goods services, such as software, data management and data analytics-driven smart-food chain, and consumer goods technologies, as well as sells mobile technologies equipment. It also provides data services consisting of internet protocol; television; hosting; managed information technology and cloud-based services; and home and business security and automation. In addition, the company offers integrated health and well-being products, solutions, and services, such as healthcare services; and software and technology solutions, including employee and family assistance programs and benefits administration. Further, it provides digitally enabled customer experience solutions, including digital customer experience management and the digital transformation of IT and customer experience systems; digital trust, safety, and security; AI data services; and generative AI solutions in customer experience. The company was formerly known as TELUS Communications Inc. and changed its name to TELUS Corporation in February 2005. TELUS Corporation was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

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