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TMETencent Music Entertainment GroSell5.6·$9.28+0.60%
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Tencent Music Entertainment Gro (TME) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $9.28: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.3): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China. It provides QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music that enable users to discover, enjoy,... Read more

$9.28+54.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#14 of 27 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield30.49%
IncomeYield2.60%Payout29.21%sustainable
Stop $8.63Target $14.37(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 7.8:1
Analyst target$15.96+72.0%29 analysts
$14.37our TP
$9.28price
$15.96mean
$29

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $9.28: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.3): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 55%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.3): -1.5
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.0
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$15.1B
EV/EBITDA-0.4
Profit Mgn26.5%
ROE11.9%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.77
Dividend2.60%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$19+104.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.5
Support Resistance
4.2
GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 7.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.70Resistance $9.69

Price Targets

$9
$14
A.Upside+54.8%
A.R:R7.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts31
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$16

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TME stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $9.28: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.3): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $8.63. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TME stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.37 (+54.9% upside). Prior stop was $8.63. Stop-loss: $8.63.

What are the risks of investing in TME?

Leverage penalty (D/E 6.3): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth.

Is TME overvalued or undervalued?

Tencent Music Entertainment Gro trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TME?

31 analysts cover TME with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Tencent Music Entertainment Gro do?Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online...

Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China. It provides QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music that enable users to discover, enjoy, and share music in personalized ways; long-form audio content, including audiobooks, podcasts and talk shows, as well as music-oriented video content comprising music videos, live performances, and short videos; and WeSing, which enables users to sing along from its library of karaoke songs and share their performances in audio or video formats with friends. The company also delivers music-centric live streaming services primarily through the Live Streaming tab on QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, WeSing, Kugou Live, and Kuwo Live that provides an interactive online stage for performers and users to showcase their talent and engage with audience base; and Lazy Audio, an audio platform. In addition, it sells artist-related merchandise, such as branded apparel, posters and art prints, and accessories; other music services, such as content licensing, sales of digital albums, sales of customized artist-related merchandises, live performances and concerts, and artist management services; and music subscriptions, as well as offers advertising services across its social entertainment platforms. The company is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates as a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings Limited.

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