Synchrony Financial has beaten earnings estimates in all four recent quarters with an average upside surprise of 20%, trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 7.1x, and carries strong momentum, though customer concentration in five programs accounting for 54% of the portfolio is a structural vulnerability.
Thesis pillars
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Attractive Credit Services Valuation→Stable
- Customer Program Concentration→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 6, 2026· older than 90 days
Synchrony Financial (SYF) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Credit Services
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: five largest programs (54.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States.
Synchrony Financial provides consumer financing through private label, dual, co-branded, and general purpose credit cards plus installment loans across five sales platforms—Home & Auto, Digital, Diversified & Value, Health & Wellness, and Lifestyle. The company reported $103.8... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: five largest programs (54.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Synchrony Financial
About Synchrony Financial
Synchrony Financial reported $21.7 billion in interest and fees on loan receivables in 2025, holding $103.8 billion of loan receivables and 70.7 million active accounts at December 31, 2025, with $182.3 billion in purchase volume financed during the year. All five of the company's sales platforms—Home & Auto, Digital, Diversified & Value, Health & Wellness, and Lifestyle—operate within the United States, and $81.1 billion in deposits represented 84% of total funding sources at year-end.
Synchrony earns revenue primarily through interest and fees on loan receivables, with Digital accounting for 30% of platform interest and fees, Home & Auto 26%, Diversified & Value 22%, Health & Wellness 17%, and Lifestyle 5% in 2025. The five largest partner programs—Amazon, Lowe's, PayPal, Sam's Club, and TJX Companies—generated 54% of total interest and fees; Lowe's, PayPal, and Sam's Club each individually exceeded 10% of total interest and fees. Partner agreements for the five largest programs run through 2030 to 2035, including a relationship with Lowe's spanning 46 years and PayPal spanning 21 years. Most large-partner agreements include retailer share arrangements that compensate partners when program economics exceed contractual thresholds. The Health & Wellness platform served over 290,000 provider and retail locations, with dental accounts comprising 49% of that platform's interest and fees in 2025. Primary competitors for partner relationships include American Express, Capital One, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, and Bread Financial.
Show full overview
Synchrony's net charge-off rate stood at 5.65% for the full year 2025, compared to 11.26% during the 2009 financial crisis, while the over-30-day delinquency rate was 4.49% at December 31, 2025 versus 8.25% at that cycle's trough. The CFPB's March 2024 rule reducing the credit card late fee safe harbor from $30 to $8 was vacated on April 15, 2025 after an industry court challenge; Synchrony had already implemented pricing and policy changes in anticipation, and those changes remain subject to partner negotiations and ongoing regulatory scrutiny. The company also tightened credit access during 2022–2024 in response to consumer payment-rate moderation driven by declining savings levels.
See also: Financial Services · Credit Services
From Synchrony Financial's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — Synchrony Financial
Latest news
- NEWS Synchrony Financial (SYF) Stock Dropped, What Is Behind The Latest Attention? - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 31, 2026 negative
- NEWS Enterprise value to revenue forward of Synchrony Financial Depositary Shares, each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a S — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF) Stock Price Crosses Above 200 Day Moving Average - Here's Why - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Synchrony Financial (SYF) Stock Slips Despite Lifted Q3 Earnings Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerfive largest programs54%10-K Item 1A: 'Our five largest programs...accounted in aggregate for 54% of our total interest and fees on loans for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWCustomerLowe's10-K Item 1A: 'Our programs with Lowe's, PayPal...and Sam's Club, each accounted for more than 10% of our total interest and fees on loans'
- LOWCustomerPayPal10-K Item 1A: 'Our programs with Lowe's, PayPal...and Sam's Club, each accounted for more than 10% of our total interest and fees on loans'
- LOWCustomerSam's Club10-K Item 1A: 'Our programs with Lowe's, PayPal...and Sam's Club, each accounted for more than 10% of our total interest and fees on loans'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States10-K Item 1: 'Substantially all of our revenue generating activities are within the United States'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -4.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: five largest programs (54.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $78.30 (+4.8%), stop $70.39 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $78.30 (+4.8% upside). Analyst target $78.30 (+4.8%), stop $70.39 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $70.39.
Concentration risk — Customer: five largest programs (54.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Thin upside margin: 4.8%.
Synchrony Financial trades at a P/E of 7.8 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
28 analysts rate SYF, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 23 analysts publish price targets averaging $87.
What does Synchrony Financial do?Synchrony Financial provides consumer financing through private label, dual, co-branded, and general purpose credit...
Synchrony Financial provides consumer financing through private label, dual, co-branded, and general purpose credit cards plus installment loans across five sales platforms—Home & Auto, Digital, Diversified & Value, Health & Wellness, and Lifestyle. The company reported $103.8 billion in loan receivables, 70.7 million active accounts, and $182.3 billion in purchase volume for 2025, funded primarily by $81.1 billion in deposits. Revenue is primarily interest and fees on loans, with substantially all operations in the United States.