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SVCService Properties Trust - SharSell3.5·$1.75+1.16%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Service Properties Trust screens as cheap on an FFO-proxy basis with an early recovery pattern in its chart, but an explicit yield-trap warning and a deep drawdown from 52-week highs keep the setup speculative.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Ffo Proxy ValuationStable
  • Death Cross Recovery AttemptStable
  • Yield Trap WarningStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Service Properties Trust - Shar (SVC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Service Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns 760 net lease properties across 42 states and 94 hotels with 21,243 rooms across 31 states, the District of Columbia, Ontario, and Puerto Rico. The company earns rental income from single-tenant net lease properties, led by... Read more

$1.75+0.2% A.UpsideScore 3.5/10#12 of 12 REIT - Hotel & Motel
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield80.96%
IncomeYield2.31%(5y avg 6.71%)Payout466.67%
Stop $8.09Target $8.72(resistance)A.R:R -6.0:1
Analyst target$2.44+39.3%4 analysts
$8.72our TP
$1.75price
$2.44mean
$9

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — Service Properties Trust - Shar

Generated 2026-07-07T11:41:57Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-76.2% upside)
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-7.5
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn-13.6%
ROE-38.6%
Rev Growth-16.3%
Beta1.63
Dividend2.31%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMTenantTA (TravelCenters of America)33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we leased 175 travel centers to TA, which constituted approximately 33.0% of our total historical real estate investments'
  • MEDIUMTenantSonesta-managed hotels42%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sonesta operated 69 of our hotels, which constituted 41.8% of our historical real estate investments as of December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMPropertyhotel properties49%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 48.6% of our historical real estate investments as of December 31, 2025, are in our hotel properties'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-12Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved the Third Amended and Restated 2012 Equity Compensation Plan at the June 11, 2026 annual meeting, increasing shares available by 4,000,000 and extending the plan term to June 11, 2036. Routine plan amendment, not an officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -16.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -16%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.5
52w Position
1.5
Bollinger
1.7

Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.3
Gross Margin
2.2
Moat
2.5
Current Ratio
2.7
Operating Margin
3.0
Piotroski F
4.4
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
9.2

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Price Target
0.1
Llm Sentiment
4.4
Analyst Rating
6.3
Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampenedBelow analyst target
GatesA.R:R -6.0=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.60Resistance $8.90

Price Targets

$8
$9
A.Upside+398.3%
A.R:R-6.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-76.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SVC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $8.09. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.

What is the SVC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.72 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $8.09. Stop-loss: $8.09.

What are the risks of investing in SVC?

Target reached (-76.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is SVC overvalued or undervalued?

Service Properties Trust - Shar trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SVC?

9 analysts cover SVC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $2.

What does Service Properties Trust - Shar do?Service Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns 760 net lease properties across 42 states and 94 hotels with...

Service Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns 760 net lease properties across 42 states and 94 hotels with 21,243 rooms across 31 states, the District of Columbia, Ontario, and Puerto Rico. The company earns rental income from single-tenant net lease properties, led by TravelCenters of America, and hotel operating returns from properties managed by Sonesta and other operators. TA and Sonesta together represent the majority of the company's real estate investment base, tying results closely to the performance of these two counterparties.

Related stocks: SHO (Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. ) · DRH (Diamondrock Hospitality Company) · RHP (Ryman Hospitality Properties, I) · XHR (Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.) · RLJ (RLJ Lodging Trust)
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Benzinga12h agoRISK
Benzinga5d agoCONCERNRestructuring
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