Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the STOK stock price target?

Take-profit $39.24 (+35.8% upside). Prior stop was $27.18.

Q: What are the risks of investing in STOK?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: zorevunersen (STK-001); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0); Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is STOK overvalued or undervalued?

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about STOK?

18 analysts cover STOK with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $45.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 1 days ago (May 19, 2026, 10:36 AM ET)

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Stoke Therapeutics is a pre-commercial biopharma developing RNA-targeted therapies using its TANGO platform. Lead candidate zorevunersen (STK-001) is in global Phase 3 EMPEROR study for Dravet syndrome (first patient dosed August 2025, data expected mid-2027); STK-002 for ADOA... Read more

$28.82+35.8% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#120 of 157 Biotechnology

QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-4.91%

Stop $27.18Target $39.24(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.1:1

Analyst target$45.10+56.5%10 analysts

$39.24our TP

$28.82price

$45.10mean

$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.82: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.

Latest news

BTIG Reiterates Buy on Stoke Therapeutics, Maintains $39 Price Target — benzinga May 11, 2026 positive
Stoke Therapeutics Q1 EPS $(0.79) Beats $(0.84) Estimate, Sales $6.229M Beat $5.880M Estimate. — benzinga May 7, 2026 positive

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Pipeline: zorevunersen (STK-001)

Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-9.4

Mkt Cap$1.8B

EV/EBITDA-8.0

Profit Mgn0.0%

ROE-45.6%

Rev Growth-96.1%

Beta1.20

DividendNone

Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C4.50bearish

IV83%elevated

Max Pain$20-30.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHpipelinezorevunersen (STK-001)
10-K Item 1A: 'We have invested substantially all of our efforts and financial resources in the development of TANGO and our current lead product candidate, zorevunersen'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-07Item 5.02LOW
G. Clare Kahn, Ph.D. appointed to Board as Class I director effective April 3, 2026. Appointed to Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee and as chairperson of R&D Committee.
SEC filing →
2026-03-27Item 4.01HIGH
Audit Committee dismissed KPMG LLP as independent auditor on March 23, 2026. KPMG's reports for FY2025 and FY2024 were unqualified with no reportable events or disagreements. New auditor to be named.
SEC filing →
2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
Board approved $697,125 discretionary bonus for CEO Ian F. Smith for 2025 performance (150% of target). Represents his full target annual bonus amount.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.015%1.35

Quality2.815%0.42

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum1.210%0.12

Sentiment7.810%0.78

Insider Activity3.310%0.33

Peer Rank2.310%0.23

Technical Setup7.35%0.36

Risk Profile2.05%0.10

Catalyst3.55%0.18

Overall (Σ contributions)4.62

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

3.0

Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+12.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Volatile — 5.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover

0.0

Volatility

0.0

Put Call

0.0

Implied Vol

0.0

Short Interest

1.3

Max Pain Risk

3.0

Debt Equity

5.8

Beta

6.2

High short interest justified: 22%Elevated put/call: 4.50High IV: 83%Above max pain $20Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.2

Value Rank

0.8

Quality Rank

2.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Rule Of 40

3.0

Piotroski F

3.3

Moat

4.0

Current Ratio

5.0

Gross Margin

10.0

Cash-burning: FCF -276% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: -373 (fail)Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg

0.5

Earnings History

3.3

Erm

5.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

28 · Oversold

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.02Resistance $37.00

Price Targets

$27

$39

A.Upside+36.2%

A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-08-11 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is STOK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.82: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $27.18. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STOK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.24 (+35.8% upside). Prior stop was $27.18. Stop-loss: $27.18.

What are the risks of investing in STOK?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: zorevunersen (STK-001); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is STOK overvalued or undervalued?

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STOK?

18 analysts cover STOK with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. do?Stoke Therapeutics is a pre-commercial biopharma developing RNA-targeted therapies using its TANGO platform. Lead...