Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the STOK stock price target?

Take-profit $39.24 (+21.9% upside). Prior stop was $29.95.

Q: What are the risks of investing in STOK?

Concentration risk — Product: zorevunersen; Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0); Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0); Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is STOK overvalued or undervalued?

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about STOK?

18 analysts cover STOK with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $45.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Stoke Therapeutics is a late-stage clinical company developing RNA-based medicines using its proprietary TANGO platform. Its lead candidate zorevunersen (STK-001) is in a Phase 3 trial (EMPEROR) for Dravet syndrome, with pivotal data anticipated in mid-2027. The company... Read more

$32.20+21.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#104 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $29.95Target $39.24(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.4:1

Analyst target$45.10+40.1%10 analysts

$39.24our TP

$32.20price

$45.10mean

$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.20: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: zorevunersen

Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-10.2

Mkt Cap$1.9B

EV/EBITDA-87.0

Profit Mgn-3.7%

ROE-2.4%

Rev Growth-93.8%

Beta1.22

DividendNone

Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish

IV98%elevated

Max Pain$18-45.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductzorevunersen
10-K Item 1A: 'We have invested substantially all of our efforts and financial resources in the development of TANGO and our current lead product candidate, zorevunersen, for the treatment of Dravet syndrome.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-07Item 5.02LOW
Board increased size to 10 directors and appointed G. Clare Kahn, Ph.D. as Class I director effective April 3, 2026. She was also named chairperson of the R&D Committee. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →
2026-03-27Item 4.01HIGH
Audit Committee dismissed KPMG LLP as independent auditor on March 23, 2026. No disagreements or reportable events. New auditor appointment disclosed separately. Auditor change effective.
SEC filing →
2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
Board approved a discretionary bonus of $697,125 for CEO Ian F. Smith for 2025 performance (150% of target). No departure or new appointment. Compensatory arrangement only.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.815%0.87

Quality4.115%0.61

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum2.510%0.25

Sentiment7.610%0.76

Insider Activity3.310%0.33

Peer Rank4.210%0.42

Technical Setup7.05%0.35

Risk Profile2.75%0.14

Catalyst5.85%0.29

Overall (Σ contributions)4.77

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

4.0

Rsi

7.6

Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Days To Cover

0.0

Implied Vol

0.0

Short Interest

1.0

Volatility

1.2

Max Pain Risk

3.0

Debt Equity

4.6

Put Call

5.7

Beta

6.1

High short interest justified: 25%High IV: 98%Above max pain $18Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

39 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.66Resistance $37.35

Price Targets

$30

$39

A.Upside+21.9%

A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-12 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is STOK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.20: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $29.95. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STOK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.24 (+21.9% upside). Prior stop was $29.95. Stop-loss: $29.95.

What are the risks of investing in STOK?

Concentration risk — Product: zorevunersen; Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0).

Is STOK overvalued or undervalued?

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STOK?

18 analysts cover STOK with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. do?Stoke Therapeutics is a late-stage clinical company developing RNA-based medicines using its proprietary TANGO...