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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality.

Sarepta Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on RNA-targeted and gene therapies for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and other rare neuromuscular diseases, with $1,864.3M in 2025 net product revenues. Its four approved Duchenne products (EXONDYS 51, VYONDYS 53,... Read more

$20.61+13.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#103 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $19.16Target $23.36(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$21.78+5.7%23 analysts
$23.36our TP
$20.61price
$21.78mean
$5
$38

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Catalent
Concentration risk — Supplier: Aldevron
Target reached (-4.8% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.9
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA-3.7
Profit Mgn-32.5%
ROE-53.5%
Rev Growth-32.7%
Beta0.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV88%elevated
Max Pain$6-70.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierCatalent
    10-K Item 1: 'Catalent supports our clinical and commercial manufacturing demand for ELEVIDYS and our SRP-9003 LGMD program'
  • HIGHSupplierAldevron
    10-K Item 1: 'Aldevron provides plasmids for ELEVIDYS and SRP-9003'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02HIGH
    CEO Douglas Ingram notified Sarepta on Feb 25, 2026 of his decision to retire by end of 2026 or upon appointment of a replacement. Internal and external search commenced. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -32.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.0
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 6 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
1.9
Value Rank
9.9
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $18.38Resistance $23.84

Price Targets

$19
$23
A.Upside+13.3%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SRPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $19.16. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SRPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.36 (+13.4% upside). Prior stop was $19.16. Stop-loss: $19.16.

What are the risks of investing in SRPT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Catalent; Concentration risk — Supplier: Aldevron; Target reached (-4.8% upside).

Is SRPT overvalued or undervalued?

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SRPT?

33 analysts cover SRPT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. do?Sarepta Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on RNA-targeted and gene therapies for Duchenne muscular...

Sarepta Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on RNA-targeted and gene therapies for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and other rare neuromuscular diseases, with $1,864.3M in 2025 net product revenues. Its four approved Duchenne products (EXONDYS 51, VYONDYS 53, AMONDYS 45, ELEVIDYS) are sold primarily in the U.S.; ELEVIDYS is the key gene therapy growth driver but was suspended for non-ambulatory patients in 2025 due to safety events and ESSENCE trial missed its primary endpoint.

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