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Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. (SLNO) Stock Analysis

Hold(was: Buy (Wait for Entry))DEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)AI GATE: BLOCKED Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: VYKAT XR; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Soleno Therapeutics received FDA approval on March 26, 2025 for VYKAT XR (diazoxide choline extended-release), the first approved treatment for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome patients age 4+. Revenue began in Q2 2025 from VYKAT XR sales; the company had net income of... Read more

$53.02+15.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#58 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.32%
Entry $52.95(1 ATR pullback)Stop $52.83Target $60.96(default +15%)A.R:R -0.9:1Setup A.R:R 75.5:1
Analyst target$53.00-0.0%5 analysts
Range unavailable (5 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: VYKAT XR; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. News gate: 0 distinct critical events (0 MATERIAL_RISK articles) Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val2.9Qual8.8Grw5.0Mom6.0Sent4.5Ins5.0Peer4.5Tech1.0Risk8.25.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Soleno Therapeutics, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: VYKAT XR
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.5
P/E (Fwd)-23.4
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA28.0
Profit Mgn33.7%
ROE26.4%
Rev Growth—
Beta-2.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$70+32.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductVYKAT XR
    10-K Item 1A: 'we have just begun to generate product revenue and are dependent upon the success of VYKAT XR'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
    Jennifer Fulk appointed CFO effective March 2, 2026, succeeding James Mackaness who intends to retire by end of March. Fulk was previously CFO of 120Water Inc. and Talkspace, Inc. Planned succession; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.0
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
1.7

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
3.7
Pe
4.7
Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
93 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $52.65Resistance $53.01

Price Targets

$53
$53
$61
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R-0.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)75.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.3%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! News gate: 0 distinct critical events (0 MATERIAL_RISK articles)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SLNO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: VYKAT XR; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. News gate: 0 distinct critical events (0 MATERIAL_RISK articles) Target $60.96 (+15.0%), stop $52.83 (−0.4%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SLNO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $60.96 (+15.1% upside). Target $60.96 (+15.0%), stop $52.83 (−0.4%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $52.83.

What are the risks of investing in SLNO?

Concentration risk — Product: VYKAT XR; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is SLNO overvalued or undervalued?

Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.5 (forward -23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SLNO?

16 analysts cover SLNO with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. do?Soleno Therapeutics received FDA approval on March 26, 2025 for VYKAT XR (diazoxide choline extended-release), the...

Soleno Therapeutics received FDA approval on March 26, 2025 for VYKAT XR (diazoxide choline extended-release), the first approved treatment for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome patients age 4+. Revenue began in Q2 2025 from VYKAT XR sales; the company had net income of $20.9M in 2025 but an accumulated deficit of $431.4M from prior clinical-stage losses.

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