Value
9.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
SLDE · Why this verdict
Why Slide Insurance Holdings (SLDE) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Slide Insurance has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 37%, earns a 60% return on equity, and trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.7 times — an elite quality score temporarily held back by weak near-term price momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
RSI has fallen to 29, below the 200-day moving average, with volume distribution turning negative — signals typically associated with capitulation or forced selling that create oversold entry conditions if the underlying business quality is intact. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and on-balance volume returns to an upward trend within 6 months, indicating the selling pressure has exhausted itself. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 29 in a falling stock can persist for many months if a structural negative catalyst — such as a large insurance loss event — causes investors to reassess the company's risk profile. | ||
Slide Insurance generated a 60% return on equity with 39% net margins, 157% free cash flow conversion relative to net income, and an 8 out of 9 Piotroski F-Score, placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the property and casualty insurance universe. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 40% and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming the high-quality earnings profile. | →Stable |
| CounterProperty and casualty insurance profitability is highly correlated with catastrophe losses; a major hurricane or wildfire season could compress margins sharply from these elevated levels. | ||
Slide Insurance beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 37.1%, including a 58% beat in the third quarter and a 40.5% beat in the fourth quarter, demonstrating that management is consistently and meaningfully setting achievable guidance. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 20% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage insurers in growth mode can beat low analyst estimates simply by ramping premium volume faster than expected; the key risk is whether loss ratios worsen as the portfolio scales into higher-risk geographies. | ||
Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.13, with analyst consensus implying 52% upside to approximately $25, Slide Insurance appears materially undervalued relative to its earnings power and growth rate. Valuation breakdown | Stock price reaches at least $21, representing the analyst consensus target, within 12 months as the quality-momentum divergence resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall insurers with heavy Florida or Gulf Coast exposure can remain cheap indefinitely because investors demand large valuation discounts for catastrophe-correlated earnings. | ||
RSI has fallen to 29, below the 200-day moving average, with volume distribution turning negative — signals typically associated with capitulation or forced selling that create oversold entry conditions if the underlying business quality is intact.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and on-balance volume returns to an upward trend within 6 months, indicating the selling pressure has exhausted itself.
CounterAn RSI of 29 in a falling stock can persist for many months if a structural negative catalyst — such as a large insurance loss event — causes investors to reassess the company's risk profile.
Slide Insurance generated a 60% return on equity with 39% net margins, 157% free cash flow conversion relative to net income, and an 8 out of 9 Piotroski F-Score, placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the property and casualty insurance universe.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 40% and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming the high-quality earnings profile.
CounterProperty and casualty insurance profitability is highly correlated with catastrophe losses; a major hurricane or wildfire season could compress margins sharply from these elevated levels.
Slide Insurance beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 37.1%, including a 58% beat in the third quarter and a 40.5% beat in the fourth quarter, demonstrating that management is consistently and meaningfully setting achievable guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarly-stage insurers in growth mode can beat low analyst estimates simply by ramping premium volume faster than expected; the key risk is whether loss ratios worsen as the portfolio scales into higher-risk geographies.
Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.13, with analyst consensus implying 52% upside to approximately $25, Slide Insurance appears materially undervalued relative to its earnings power and growth rate.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock price reaches at least $21, representing the analyst consensus target, within 12 months as the quality-momentum divergence resolves.
CounterSmall insurers with heavy Florida or Gulf Coast exposure can remain cheap indefinitely because investors demand large valuation discounts for catastrophe-correlated earnings.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 60%
- ▸Strong margins: 39%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 157% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $92,102,059 (4.391% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 4.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 1.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.93
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_B_EXCEPTIONAL_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.64
Upside
+20.2%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 9.6 and asymmetric R:R of 1.64.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Value at 9.4, and Quality at 9.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Insider at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.64 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Slide Insurance generated a 60% return on equity with 39% net margins, 157% free cash flow conversion relative to net income, and an 8 out of 9 Piotroski F-Score, placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the property and casualty insurance universe.
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 30% in any reported annual period.
- P2Slide Insurance beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 37.1%, including a 58% beat in the third quarter and a 40.5% beat in the fourth quarter, demonstrating that management is consistently and meaningfully setting achievable guidance.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.13, with analyst consensus implying 52% upside to approximately $25, Slide Insurance appears materially undervalued relative to its earnings power and growth rate.
Trip ifStock price drops below $14, more than 15% below the current price of $16.62.
- P4RSI has fallen to 29, below the 200-day moving average, with volume distribution turning negative — signals typically associated with capitulation or forced selling that create oversold entry conditions if the underlying business quality is intact.
Trip ifRSI remains below 30 for more than 30 consecutive calendar days.