Value
4.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
SFNC · Why this verdict
Why Simmons First National Corporat (SFNC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Simmons First National Corporation shows strong earnings growth of 24% year-over-year and a breakout technical pattern, but its quality score has fallen below minimum acceptable thresholds with a Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 and zero competitive moat, making it an exit candidate despite attractive growth metrics.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The overall quality score of 2.9 out of 10 is below the minimum acceptable threshold of 4.0, with zero competitive moat and weak returns on equity and assets, indicating the bank lacks the structural advantages needed to sustain above-average performance. Warnings | Quality score improves to above 4.0 within 12 months as efficiency initiatives and revenue growth translate into better profitability ratios. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank quality metrics are heavily penalized by the current interest rate environment; some of these metrics could improve substantially if rates stabilize or decline. | ||
Revenue grew 24% year-over-year and the stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, but the Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 out of 9 and weak return metrics indicate this growth is not yet reflected in financial quality improvements. Growth breakdown | Piotroski F-Score improves to 7 or higher over the next 12 months as earnings growth translates into stronger balance sheet and return metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth of 24% in a regional bank often reflects loan portfolio expansion rather than organic business improvement; credit quality deterioration could quickly reverse the quality picture. | ||
The golden cross breakout with RSI at 58 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms genuine buying momentum, but the stock has already traded above its analyst price target by 6.8%, leaving almost no room for reward relative to downside risk. Chart pattern detection | Analyst price targets are revised above $24 within 12 months as the earnings growth thesis attracts broader analyst coverage. | →Stable |
| CounterBreakout momentum in small regional banks can carry stocks well above analyst targets before reversing; the technical signal may matter more than the tight upside estimate. | ||
A recent senior officer departure or appointment flagged in a regulatory disclosure introduces leadership uncertainty at a time when the bank is navigating quality improvements and growth integration challenges. Gates warning | No additional senior leadership changes occur within 6 months and the new management team provides clear operational continuity guidance. | →Stable |
| CounterLeadership transitions in well-managed regional banks are often routine succession events rather than distress signals; the departure of one officer rarely changes strategic direction meaningfully. | ||
The overall quality score of 2.9 out of 10 is below the minimum acceptable threshold of 4.0, with zero competitive moat and weak returns on equity and assets, indicating the bank lacks the structural advantages needed to sustain above-average performance.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score improves to above 4.0 within 12 months as efficiency initiatives and revenue growth translate into better profitability ratios.
CounterRegional bank quality metrics are heavily penalized by the current interest rate environment; some of these metrics could improve substantially if rates stabilize or decline.
Revenue grew 24% year-over-year and the stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, but the Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 out of 9 and weak return metrics indicate this growth is not yet reflected in financial quality improvements.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score improves to 7 or higher over the next 12 months as earnings growth translates into stronger balance sheet and return metrics.
CounterRevenue growth of 24% in a regional bank often reflects loan portfolio expansion rather than organic business improvement; credit quality deterioration could quickly reverse the quality picture.
The golden cross breakout with RSI at 58 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms genuine buying momentum, but the stock has already traded above its analyst price target by 6.8%, leaving almost no room for reward relative to downside risk.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised above $24 within 12 months as the earnings growth thesis attracts broader analyst coverage.
CounterBreakout momentum in small regional banks can carry stocks well above analyst targets before reversing; the technical signal may matter more than the tight upside estimate.
A recent senior officer departure or appointment flagged in a regulatory disclosure introduces leadership uncertainty at a time when the bank is navigating quality improvements and growth integration challenges.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- No additional senior leadership changes occur within 6 months and the new management team provides clear operational continuity guidance.
CounterLeadership transitions in well-managed regional banks are often routine succession events rather than distress signals; the departure of one officer rarely changes strategic direction meaningfully.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.04
Upside
-10.6%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Momentum at 6.3, and Catalyst at 5.9; the weakest are Quality at 2.9, Peer rank at 3.2, and Technical at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue grew 24% year-over-year and the stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, but the Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 out of 9 and weak return metrics indicate this growth is not yet reflected in financial quality improvements.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the growth momentum has stalled.
- P2The overall quality score of 2.9 out of 10 is below the minimum acceptable threshold of 4.0, with zero competitive moat and weak returns on equity and assets, indicating the bank lacks the structural advantages needed to sustain above-average performance.
Trip ifQuality score remains below 4.0 for 2 consecutive reporting periods with no improvement in Piotroski components above 6.
- P3The golden cross breakout with RSI at 58 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms genuine buying momentum, but the stock has already traded above its analyst price target by 6.8%, leaving almost no room for reward relative to downside risk.
Trip ifStock price drops below $20.00, more than 9% below current levels, reversing the breakout signal below the 200-day moving average.
- P4A recent senior officer departure or appointment flagged in a regulatory disclosure introduces leadership uncertainty at a time when the bank is navigating quality improvements and growth integration challenges.
Trip ifA second senior leadership change is disclosed within 6 months, affecting more than 1 C-level position and creating compounding management uncertainty.