Select Medical Holdings Corpora (SEM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the SEM stock price target?

Take-profit $16.19 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $16.38.

Q: What are the risks of investing in SEM?

Target reached (-14.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap); Target reached (-14.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Q: Is SEM overvalued or undervalued?

Select Medical Holdings Corpora trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about SEM?

9 analysts cover SEM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $17.

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Select Medical operates 104 critical illness recovery hospitals (LTCHs), 38 rehabilitation hospitals, and 1,917 outpatient rehab clinics in 39 states generating $5.5B revenue in 2025. Revenue is split roughly 45% LTCH, 24% rehab hospitals, and 24% outpatient rehab.

$16.46-1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#16 of 27 Medical Care Facilities

Stop $16.38Target $16.19(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1

Analyst target$16.63+1.0%4 analysts

$16.19our TP

$16.46price

$16.63mean

$16

$17

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.46: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-14.1% upside)

Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.2

P/E (Fwd)11.7

Mkt Cap$2.0B

EV/EBITDA10.9

Profit Mgn2.7%

ROE10.6%

Rev Growth—

Beta0.88

Dividend1.52%

Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

IV68%elevated

Max Pain$8-54.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMCustomerMedicare29%
10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues from providing services to patients covered under the Medicare program represented approximately 31%, 29%, and 29% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.515%1.13

Quality2.815%0.42

Growth6.315%0.94

Momentum5.410%0.54

Sentiment5.110%0.51

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.110%0.41

Technical Setup4.15%0.20

Risk Profile6.35%0.32

Catalyst6.15%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)5.28

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Net Margin

1.3

Fcf Quality

1.7

Operating Margin

1.8

Roa

2.4

Roe

3.5

Current Ratio

4.1

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

5.6

Earnings quality RED FLAG: 22% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

76 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.29Resistance $16.52

Price Targets

$16

A.Upside-1.6%

A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.1% upside)

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap)

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SEM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.46: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $16.38. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.19 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $16.38. Stop-loss: $16.38.

What are the risks of investing in SEM?

Target reached (-14.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap).

Is SEM overvalued or undervalued?

Select Medical Holdings Corpora trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SEM?

9 analysts cover SEM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Select Medical Holdings Corpora do?Select Medical operates 104 critical illness recovery hospitals (LTCHs), 38 rehabilitation hospitals, and 1,917...