Select Medical Holdings Corpora (SEM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the SEM stock price target?

Take-profit $16.18 (-2.0% upside). Prior stop was $16.43.

Q: What are the risks of investing in SEM?

Target reached (-14.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (5 sells, 27.34% of cap); Target reached (-14.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Q: Is SEM overvalued or undervalued?

Select Medical Holdings Corpora trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about SEM?

9 analysts cover SEM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $17.

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2 days ago (May 18, 2026, 10:06 AM ET)

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Select Medical is one of the largest U.S. operators of critical illness recovery hospitals (104 in 28 states), rehabilitation hospitals (38 in 15 states), and outpatient rehabilitation clinics (1,917 in 39 states), generating $5.45B in 2025 revenue. Revenue is earned from... Read more

$16.50-2.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#20 of 27 Medical Care Facilities

QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.99%

IncomeYield1.52%(5y avg 1.78%)Payout23.36%sustainable

Stop $16.43Target $16.18(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1

Analyst target$16.63+0.8%4 analysts

$16.18our TP

$16.50price

$16.63mean

$16

$17

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.50: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Select Medical Holdings Corpora

Latest news

This Under Armour Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 3 Downgrades For Wednesday — benzinga May 13, 2026 neutral
Mizuho Downgrades Select Medical Hldgs to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $16.5 — benzinga May 13, 2026 negative
Transcript: Select Medical Hldgs Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call — benzinga May 1, 2026 neutral
Select Medical Hldgs Affirms FY2026 GAAP EPS Guidance of $1.22-$1.32 vs $1.25 Est; Affirms FY2026 Sales Guidance of $5.6 — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 positive
Select Medical Hldgs Q1 Adj. EPS $0.36 Misses $0.46 Estimate, Sales $1.421B Beat $1.411B Estimate — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 negative

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-14.4% upside)

Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (5 sells, 27.34% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4

P/E (Fwd)12.0

Mkt Cap$2.0B

EV/EBITDA11.5

Profit Mgn2.4%

ROE9.8%

Rev Growth5.0%

Beta0.80

Dividend1.52%

Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMregulatoryMedicare29%
10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues from providing services to patients covered under the Medicare program represented approximately 31%, 29%, and 29% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-30Item 5.02LOW
Compensation Committee approved one-year deferral of scheduled vesting dates for certain equity awards held by Executive Chairman Robert A. Ortenzio and Senior EVP Martin F. Jackson. No new grants, departures, or appointments.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.515%1.13

Quality3.015%0.45

Growth5.715%0.85

Momentum6.110%0.61

Sentiment4.510%0.45

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.710%0.37

Technical Setup2.85%0.14

Risk Profile7.45%0.37

Catalyst5.15%0.26

Overall (Σ contributions)5.12

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger

0.0

Support Resistance

0.3

52w Position

8.1

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Net Margin

1.2

Roa

2.3

Fcf Quality

2.4

Operating Margin

2.8

Roe

3.3

Moat

3.8

Current Ratio

4.4

Piotroski F

6.7

Earnings quality RED FLAG: 30% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

3.0

Growth Rank

4.1

Value Rank

7.7

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

66 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.33Resistance $16.51

Price Targets

$16

A.Upside-1.9%

A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.4% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (5 sells, 27.34% of cap)

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-30 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SEM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.50: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $16.43. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.18 (-2.0% upside). Prior stop was $16.43. Stop-loss: $16.43.

What are the risks of investing in SEM?

Target reached (-14.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (5 sells, 27.34% of cap).

Is SEM overvalued or undervalued?

Select Medical Holdings Corpora trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SEM?

9 analysts cover SEM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Select Medical Holdings Corpora do?Select Medical is one of the largest U.S. operators of critical illness recovery hospitals (104 in 28 states),...