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SCHLScholastic CorporationSell4.2·$39.40
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Scholastic's earnings beat streak and imminent catalyst are offset by declining revenue, an elevated growth-adjusted valuation, and a notably negative risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio, consistent with a call to consider reducing the position.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Catalyst With Beat Streak→Stable
  • Declining Revenue→Stable
  • Elevated Valuation Vs Growth↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Scholastic Corporation (SCHL) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityShortModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Publishing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.40: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality.

Scholastic Corporation (the "Corporation" and together with its subsidiaries, "Scholastic" or the "Company") is the world's largest publisher and distributor of children's books, a leading provider of print and digital instructional materials for grades pre-kindergarten... Read more

$39.40-16.9% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#6 of 6 Publishing
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield4.93%
IncomeYield2.61%(5y avg 2.12%)Payout59.86%sustainable
Stop $36.64Target $45.31(default +15%)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$38.50-2.3%2 analysts
$45.31our TP
$39.40price
$38.50mean
$35
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.40: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 17, 202666d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-16.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.2
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$711M
EV/EBITDA13.4
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE7.4%
Rev Growth-3.9%
Beta1.08
Dividend2.61%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$20-49.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.5
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
6.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
1.7
Value Rank
4.3

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Roa
1.1
Net Margin
1.8
Roe
2.5
Current Ratio
4.8
Fcf Quality
4.8
Moat
5.4
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
7.3
Earnings quality warning: 62% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEINSIDER 1.95%=EXTREMEMomentum 7.2>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.88Resistance $39.82

Price Targets

$37
$45
A.Upside-16.9%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-17 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SCHL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.40: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $36.64. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SCHL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.31 (-16.9% upside). Prior stop was $36.64. Stop-loss: $36.64.

What are the risks of investing in SCHL?

Target reached (-16.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is SCHL overvalued or undervalued?

Scholastic Corporation trades at a P/E of 27.2 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SCHL?

6 analysts cover SCHL with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $39.

What does Scholastic Corporation do?Scholastic Corporation (the "Corporation" and together with its subsidiaries, "Scholastic" or the "Company") is the...

Scholastic Corporation (the "Corporation" and together with its subsidiaries, "Scholastic" or the "Company") is the world's largest publisher and distributor of children's books, a leading provider of print and digital instructional materials for grades pre-kindergarten ("pre-K") to grade 12 and a producer of entertaining literary and educational children's media.

Related stocks: WLY (John Wiley & Sons, Inc.) · WLYB (John Wiley & Sons, Inc.) · TDAY (USA TODAY Co., Inc.) · OPRA (Opera Limited) · EVER (EverQuote, Inc.)
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