Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.25
RHI · Why this verdict
Why Robert Half (RHI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Robert Half faces severe pressure from 29% short interest, a put/call ratio of 4.40, declining revenue at -4%, and the stock trading 18.9% above analyst consensus targets, making the current risk profile unattractive despite consistent earnings beats.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite the revenue decline, the company has beaten or met earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including two inline results and two beats, showing management is effectively controlling costs to manage the earnings per share decline. Earnings | Earnings results meet or exceed estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters despite the difficult revenue environment. | →Stable |
| CounterMeeting or beating already-lowered earnings estimates during a revenue decline does not establish a positive fundamental trend, and the stock trading at 18.9% above consensus targets limits the reward for continued beats. | ||
The company's dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings (meaning the dividend is above net income on a trailing basis) raises concerns about dividend sustainability during the current revenue decline cycle. Catalyst breakdown | The company maintains its dividend without a cut for at least the next 4 quarters as free cash flow supports the payment. | →Stable |
| CounterA dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings is a clear warning sign that the dividend cannot be sustained at current earnings levels, and a dividend cut would likely accelerate selling pressure. | ||
The put/call ratio of 4.40 is among the highest in the staffing sector, combined with 29% short interest and implied volatility of 112%, suggesting strong institutional conviction in near-term downside for the stock. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio declines below 2.0 and short interest falls below 20% only if staffing market conditions improve materially. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high put/call ratios sometimes reflect protective hedging by existing holders rather than directional short positioning, and high implied volatility may be optically elevated ahead of a known earnings event. | ||
Revenue has been declining at -4% year-over-year, reflecting weakness in the professional staffing and consulting end markets, which are typically sensitive to corporate hiring freezes during economic uncertainty. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth returns to positive territory, above 2%, within the next 4 quarters as the staffing market recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterProfessional staffing tends to lag economic recovery by 6 to 12 months, and the -4% decline rate may worsen before it recovers if corporate clients continue to defer hiring decisions. | ||
Despite the revenue decline, the company has beaten or met earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including two inline results and two beats, showing management is effectively controlling costs to manage the earnings per share decline.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings results meet or exceed estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters despite the difficult revenue environment.
CounterMeeting or beating already-lowered earnings estimates during a revenue decline does not establish a positive fundamental trend, and the stock trading at 18.9% above consensus targets limits the reward for continued beats.
The company's dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings (meaning the dividend is above net income on a trailing basis) raises concerns about dividend sustainability during the current revenue decline cycle.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company maintains its dividend without a cut for at least the next 4 quarters as free cash flow supports the payment.
CounterA dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings is a clear warning sign that the dividend cannot be sustained at current earnings levels, and a dividend cut would likely accelerate selling pressure.
The put/call ratio of 4.40 is among the highest in the staffing sector, combined with 29% short interest and implied volatility of 112%, suggesting strong institutional conviction in near-term downside for the stock.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declines below 2.0 and short interest falls below 20% only if staffing market conditions improve materially.
CounterExtremely high put/call ratios sometimes reflect protective hedging by existing holders rather than directional short positioning, and high implied volatility may be optically elevated ahead of a known earnings event.
Revenue has been declining at -4% year-over-year, reflecting weakness in the professional staffing and consulting end markets, which are typically sensitive to corporate hiring freezes during economic uncertainty.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to positive territory, above 2%, within the next 4 quarters as the staffing market recovers.
CounterProfessional staffing tends to lag economic recovery by 6 to 12 months, and the -4% decline rate may worsen before it recovers if corporate clients continue to defer hiring decisions.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 1.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 4.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 1.3 |
| put call | 4.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 29%
- ▸Above max pain $15
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 785.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.32
Upside
-14.1%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.32 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.3, Catalyst at 6.0, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The put/call ratio of 4.40 is among the highest in the staffing sector, combined with 29% short interest and implied volatility of 112%, suggesting strong institutional conviction in near-term downside for the stock.
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 5.0 or short interest rises above 35% of float.
- P2Revenue has been declining at -4% year-over-year, reflecting weakness in the professional staffing and consulting end markets, which are typically sensitive to corporate hiring freezes during economic uncertainty.
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below -5% year-over-year for more than 4 consecutive quarters.
- P3Despite the revenue decline, the company has beaten or met earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including two inline results and two beats, showing management is effectively controlling costs to manage the earnings per share decline.
Trip ifEarnings per share falls below $0.10 in any reported quarter or a miss exceeds -15%.
- P4The company's dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings (meaning the dividend is above net income on a trailing basis) raises concerns about dividend sustainability during the current revenue decline cycle.
Trip ifCompany announces a dividend cut of more than 20% from the current rate.