Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
RHI · Why this verdict
Why Robert Half (RHI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Robert Half faces severe pressure from 29% short interest, a put/call ratio of 4.40, declining revenue at -4%, and the stock trading 18.9% above analyst consensus targets, making the current risk profile unattractive despite consistent earnings beats.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite the revenue decline, the company has beaten or met earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including two inline results and two beats, showing management is effectively controlling costs to manage the earnings per share decline. Earnings | Earnings results meet or exceed estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters despite the difficult revenue environment. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMeeting or beating already-lowered earnings estimates during a revenue decline does not establish a positive fundamental trend, and the stock trading at 18.9% above consensus targets limits the reward for continued beats. | ||
The company's dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings (meaning the dividend is above net income on a trailing basis) raises concerns about dividend sustainability during the current revenue decline cycle. Catalyst breakdown | The company maintains its dividend without a cut for at least the next 4 quarters as free cash flow supports the payment. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings is a clear warning sign that the dividend cannot be sustained at current earnings levels, and a dividend cut would likely accelerate selling pressure. | ||
The put/call ratio of 4.40 is among the highest in the staffing sector, combined with 29% short interest and implied volatility of 112%, suggesting strong institutional conviction in near-term downside for the stock. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio declines below 2.0 and short interest falls below 20% only if staffing market conditions improve materially. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExtremely high put/call ratios sometimes reflect protective hedging by existing holders rather than directional short positioning, and high implied volatility may be optically elevated ahead of a known earnings event. | ||
Revenue has been declining at -4% year-over-year, reflecting weakness in the professional staffing and consulting end markets, which are typically sensitive to corporate hiring freezes during economic uncertainty. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth returns to positive territory, above 2%, within the next 4 quarters as the staffing market recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterProfessional staffing tends to lag economic recovery by 6 to 12 months, and the -4% decline rate may worsen before it recovers if corporate clients continue to defer hiring decisions. | ||
Despite the revenue decline, the company has beaten or met earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including two inline results and two beats, showing management is effectively controlling costs to manage the earnings per share decline.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings results meet or exceed estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters despite the difficult revenue environment.
CounterMeeting or beating already-lowered earnings estimates during a revenue decline does not establish a positive fundamental trend, and the stock trading at 18.9% above consensus targets limits the reward for continued beats.
The company's dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings (meaning the dividend is above net income on a trailing basis) raises concerns about dividend sustainability during the current revenue decline cycle.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company maintains its dividend without a cut for at least the next 4 quarters as free cash flow supports the payment.
CounterA dividend payout ratio of 736% relative to trailing earnings is a clear warning sign that the dividend cannot be sustained at current earnings levels, and a dividend cut would likely accelerate selling pressure.
The put/call ratio of 4.40 is among the highest in the staffing sector, combined with 29% short interest and implied volatility of 112%, suggesting strong institutional conviction in near-term downside for the stock.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declines below 2.0 and short interest falls below 20% only if staffing market conditions improve materially.
CounterExtremely high put/call ratios sometimes reflect protective hedging by existing holders rather than directional short positioning, and high implied volatility may be optically elevated ahead of a known earnings event.
Revenue has been declining at -4% year-over-year, reflecting weakness in the professional staffing and consulting end markets, which are typically sensitive to corporate hiring freezes during economic uncertainty.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to positive territory, above 2%, within the next 4 quarters as the staffing market recovers.
CounterProfessional staffing tends to lag economic recovery by 6 to 12 months, and the -4% decline rate may worsen before it recovers if corporate clients continue to defer hiring decisions.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 1.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 8.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.57 (n=10)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 26%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.46
Upside
-21.4%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -1.46.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Catalyst at 6.4, and Technical at 5.9; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, Sentiment at 3.6, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 5.0 or short interest rises above 35% of float.
- P2Revenue Decline Staffing Cycle
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below -5% year-over-year for more than 4 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Beat In Downturn
Trip ifEarnings per share falls below $0.10 in any reported quarter or a miss exceeds -15%.
- P4Dividend Yield Support
Trip ifCompany announces a dividend cut of more than 20% from the current rate.