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RCUSArcus Biosciences, Inc.Sell3.4·$29.98-1.15%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Arcus Biosciences is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with a 28% analyst upside and above-average momentum, but its core pipeline is heavily concentrated in a single drug candidate and a single partnership counterparty, revenue is declining 39% year-over-year, and the company is burning cash at 66% of revenue — meaning thesis viability depends almost entirely on pipeline outcomes the data cannot predict.

Thesis pillars

  • Pipeline And Counterparty ConcentrationStable
  • Revenue Decline Cash BurnStable
  • High Put Call Ratio Market SkepticismStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (RCUS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Arcus Biosciences is a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with four drugs in Phase 3 trials targeting cancers and inflammatory diseases. Revenue comes from collaboration milestones with Gilead Sciences (which holds exclusive commercialization rights outside the U.S.... Read more

$29.98+3.7% A.UpsideScore 3.4/10#252 of 253 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-4.09%
Stop $27.88Target $31.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$35.75+19.2%12 analysts
$31.10our TP
$29.98price
$35.75mean
$22
$47

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: casdatifan
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Gilead
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-9.8
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA-8.3
Profit Mgn-156.4%
ROE-70.0%
Rev Growth-39.3%
Beta0.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV97%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelinecasdatifan
    10-K Item 1: 'We currently own all of the commercial rights to casdatifan ... Our first Phase 3 clinical trial, PEAK-1, is evaluating casdatifan'
  • HIGHcounterpartyGilead
    10-K Item 1A: 'We expect to depend on our collaboration with Gilead for the research, development, manufacture and commercialization of certain of our investigational products.'
  • HIGHSupplierWuXi Biologics
    10-K Item 1: 'WuXi Biologics would be our exclusive manufacturer of zimberelimab drug substance with respect to clinical and commercial supplies'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source contract manufacturers
    10-K Item 1: 'we have obtained ... drug product for our investigational products from single-source third-party contract manufacturers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    COO Jennifer Jarrett resigned effective March 30, 2026. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited. Separation agreement provides advisory services through June 30, 2026 with extended option exercise period. No permanent successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -39.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -39%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
1.9
Value Rank
3.3

Unprofitable operations — net margin -156.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
9.0
Cash-burning: FCF -66% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Analyst Target
5.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.84Resistance $31.73

Price Targets

$28
$31
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-11.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 1.5%)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RCUS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $27.88. Score 3.4/10, high confidence.

What is the RCUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.10 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $27.88. Stop-loss: $27.88.

What are the risks of investing in RCUS?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: casdatifan; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Gilead; Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is RCUS overvalued or undervalued?

Arcus Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RCUS?

18 analysts cover RCUS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Arcus Biosciences, Inc. do?Arcus Biosciences is a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with four drugs in Phase 3 trials targeting...

Arcus Biosciences is a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with four drugs in Phase 3 trials targeting cancers and inflammatory diseases. Revenue comes from collaboration milestones with Gilead Sciences (which holds exclusive commercialization rights outside the U.S. for anti-TIGIT, anti-PD-1, and CD73 programs) and Taiho Pharmaceutical. Arcus retains U.S. commercial rights to its lead HIF-2α inhibitor casdatifan, currently in Phase 3 in renal cell carcinoma.

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