Should you buy Ferrari (RACE)?
Updated
Ferrari is an exceptional business with the highest Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a 42% ROE, and rising earnings estimates, but it trades at a forward P/E of 29.7x with only 4.4% upside to the analyst target, and two consecutive modest earnings misses raise questions about whether the premium valuation is sustainable.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, Ferrari demonstrates strength across all nine financial health indicators — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — placing it in the top tier of quality companies in the data universe. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or higher across the next two annual reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical financial health; it does not prevent the stock from declining when already richly valued, as evidenced by the confirmed death cross despite the company's excellent fundamentals. | ||
Trading at a forward P/E of 29.7x with a PEG ratio of 4.07 and only 4.4% upside to the analyst consensus price target of $385.29, Ferrari's valuation already incorporates a substantial quality and scarcity premium that leaves minimal room for multiple expansion. Bear case | Analyst price targets rise above $420 following continued revenue growth and margin improvement. | →Stable |
| CounterFerrari's brand scarcity model commands a durable premium multiple; the PEG ratio is high because earnings per share growth is solid and the brand cannot be replicated, justifying a sustained premium to the market. | ||
Ferrari has missed earnings estimates in the two most recent quarters, reporting $2.33 against a $2.37 estimate in May 2026 and $2.14 against $2.20 in February 2026, reversing the prior two-quarter beat streak and suggesting the high consensus bar is becoming difficult to clear. Earnings | The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBoth misses were minor (below 3% negative surprise), and the prior two beats showed the company can outperform; the misses may reflect timing of vehicle deliveries rather than structural margin compression. | ||
With a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, Ferrari demonstrates strength across all nine financial health indicators — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — placing it in the top tier of quality companies in the data universe.
→Stable- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or higher across the next two annual reporting cycles.
CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical financial health; it does not prevent the stock from declining when already richly valued, as evidenced by the confirmed death cross despite the company's excellent fundamentals.
Trading at a forward P/E of 29.7x with a PEG ratio of 4.07 and only 4.4% upside to the analyst consensus price target of $385.29, Ferrari's valuation already incorporates a substantial quality and scarcity premium that leaves minimal room for multiple expansion.
→Stable- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise above $420 following continued revenue growth and margin improvement.
CounterFerrari's brand scarcity model commands a durable premium multiple; the PEG ratio is high because earnings per share growth is solid and the brand cannot be replicated, justifying a sustained premium to the market.
Ferrari has missed earnings estimates in the two most recent quarters, reporting $2.33 against a $2.37 estimate in May 2026 and $2.14 against $2.20 in February 2026, reversing the prior two-quarter beat streak and suggesting the high consensus bar is becoming difficult to clear.
→Stable- Expectation
- The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
CounterBoth misses were minor (below 3% negative surprise), and the prior two beats showed the company can outperform; the misses may reflect timing of vehicle deliveries rather than structural margin compression.
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Despite the recent earnings misses, the analyst community has been revising earnings estimates upward, which combined with positive news sentiment of +1.00 and strong volume accumulation suggests growing institutional confidence in Ferrari's multi-year earnings trajectory.
→Stable- Expectation
- Earnings estimates for the next four quarters rise by more than 5% on a cumulative basis.
CounterRising estimates after a period of misses may set a higher bar that is even harder to clear in subsequent quarters, increasing the probability of continued negative surprises.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1With a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, Ferrari demonstrates strength across all nine financial health indicators — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — placing it in the top tier of quality companies in the data universe.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any reported annual period.
- P2Trading at a forward P/E of 29.7x with a PEG ratio of 4.07 and only 4.4% upside to the analyst consensus price target of $385.29, Ferrari's valuation already incorporates a substantial quality and scarcity premium that leaves minimal room for multiple expansion.
Trip ifThe forward P/E expands above 35x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth expectations.
- P3Ferrari has missed earnings estimates in the two most recent quarters, reporting $2.33 against a $2.37 estimate in May 2026 and $2.14 against $2.20 in February 2026, reversing the prior two-quarter beat streak and suggesting the high consensus bar is becoming difficult to clear.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Despite the recent earnings misses, the analyst community has been revising earnings estimates upward, which combined with positive news sentiment of +1.00 and strong volume accumulation suggests growing institutional confidence in Ferrari's multi-year earnings trajectory.
Trip ifEarnings estimate revisions turn negative for at least 2 consecutive quarters, declining by more than 3% in aggregate.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Ferrari N.V. (RACE) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.0/10 at $349.34. The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. Asymmetry R:R of 1.29 is supplementary context, not the trigger.
The dominant failed gate is momentum at 1.7 vs threshold 4.5 (with co-failures: reward-to-risk, death cross). SELL flips back toward HOLD if momentum recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is INSIDER:OK.
On the bull side: Earnings estimates trending UP; High-quality business. On the bear side: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Active engine warnings: V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5, V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot, V9 Gate Failed: DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $349.34, with structural invalidation at $329.27. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 1.30 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates RACE — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Earnings estimates trending UP
- ▸High-quality business
Bear case
- ▸Thin upside margin: 7.9%
- ▸Consecutive earnings misses (2)
- ▸Weak overall score: 5.0/10