Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
- ▸Attractively valued
QCRH · Why this verdict
Why QCR Holdings (QCRH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
QCR Holdings delivers a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with 21% year-over-year revenue growth, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and 37% net margins, but currently trades at just 2.6% below its 52-week high with analyst targets already reached, leaving limited near-term upside for new positions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A 37% net margin, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a peer quality rank of 7.6/10 place QCR Holdings significantly above the median regional bank on business quality metrics, suggesting durable profitability through varied credit environments. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 30% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above for the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets of 1.0% is below the premium regional bank threshold, suggesting the quality advantage over peers is present but not exceptional enough to justify a material premium to book value. | ||
QCR Holdings has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 14%, while delivering 21% year-over-year revenue growth, placing it as a top-tier performer in the regional banking peer group. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and revenue growth sustains above 10% year over year. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank earnings are highly sensitive to interest rate cycles; if rates decline significantly, net interest margin compression could reduce both earnings and growth prospects quickly. | ||
The stock is trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets, with the resistance-based take profit at $95.30 only 0.6% above the current price of $94.71 and a risk-reward ratio of 0.13, meaning the stock is priced for near-perfection with minimal margin of error. Targets | Analyst consensus target rises above $105 within 6 months following additional earnings beats. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks that trade persistently near analyst targets and 52-week highs in a golden-cross configuration often see target upgrades that extend the rally; the 4-for-4 beat streak is the typical catalyst for such upgrades. | ||
A golden cross configuration with the stock above all moving averages, bullish MACD, RSI at 57, and the stock trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high indicates positive price momentum with broad technical confirmation. V9 | Price rises above $100 within 9 months while maintaining above the 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume distribution shows falling OBV despite the golden cross, which is a bearish divergence that often precedes price weakness even in the presence of positive technical patterns. | ||
A 37% net margin, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a peer quality rank of 7.6/10 place QCR Holdings significantly above the median regional bank on business quality metrics, suggesting durable profitability through varied credit environments.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 30% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above for the next 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets of 1.0% is below the premium regional bank threshold, suggesting the quality advantage over peers is present but not exceptional enough to justify a material premium to book value.
QCR Holdings has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 14%, while delivering 21% year-over-year revenue growth, placing it as a top-tier performer in the regional banking peer group.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and revenue growth sustains above 10% year over year.
CounterRegional bank earnings are highly sensitive to interest rate cycles; if rates decline significantly, net interest margin compression could reduce both earnings and growth prospects quickly.
The stock is trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets, with the resistance-based take profit at $95.30 only 0.6% above the current price of $94.71 and a risk-reward ratio of 0.13, meaning the stock is priced for near-perfection with minimal margin of error.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $105 within 6 months following additional earnings beats.
CounterStocks that trade persistently near analyst targets and 52-week highs in a golden-cross configuration often see target upgrades that extend the rally; the 4-for-4 beat streak is the typical catalyst for such upgrades.
A golden cross configuration with the stock above all moving averages, bullish MACD, RSI at 57, and the stock trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high indicates positive price momentum with broad technical confirmation.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price rises above $100 within 9 months while maintaining above the 200-day moving average.
CounterVolume distribution shows falling OBV despite the golden cross, which is a bearish divergence that often precedes price weakness even in the presence of positive technical patterns.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $56,970 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 42.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.14
Upside
-8.3%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.0, Value at 7.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Insider at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1QCR Holdings has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 14%, while delivering 21% year-over-year revenue growth, placing it as a top-tier performer in the regional banking peer group.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2A 37% net margin, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a peer quality rank of 7.6/10 place QCR Holdings significantly above the median regional bank on business quality metrics, suggesting durable profitability through varied credit environments.
Trip ifNet margins fall below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The stock is trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets, with the resistance-based take profit at $95.30 only 0.6% above the current price of $94.71 and a risk-reward ratio of 0.13, meaning the stock is priced for near-perfection with minimal margin of error.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target falls below $85, a decline of more than 10% from the current resistance level.
- P4A golden cross configuration with the stock above all moving averages, bullish MACD, RSI at 57, and the stock trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high indicates positive price momentum with broad technical confirmation.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and OBV declines for more than 30 consecutive days.