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QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $178.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Concentration risk — Customer: Apple.

Qualcomm develops and commercializes semiconductor platforms (Snapdragon) for mobile, automotive, and IoT through its QCT segment, and licenses cellular and wireless IP through its QTL segment, globally. Revenue comes from chip sales and IP royalties, with significant... Read more

$178.88+2.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#9 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $166.59Target $183.15(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$150.10-16.1%29 analysts
$183.15our TP
$178.88price
$150.10mean
$100
$200

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $178.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Concentration risk — Customer: Apple. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.73)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China
Concentration risk — Customer: Apple
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.8
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$166.6B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn12.0%
ROE21.5%
Rev Growth5.0%
Beta1.28
Dividend2.36%
Rating analysts46

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$70-60.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our business is concentrated in China, and the risks of such concentration are exacerbated by U.S./China trade and national security tensions.'
  • HIGHCustomerApple
    10-K Item 1A: 'we expect that Apple will increasingly use its own modem products, rather than our products, in its future devices, which will have a significant negative impact on our QCT revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.6
Revenue Growth
3.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.2
Gap
3.0
52w Position
7.6
Extreme gap up (10.3%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 8.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
93 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $121.99Resistance $186.89

Price Targets

$167
$183
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-24.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QCOM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $178.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Concentration risk — Customer: Apple. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $183.15 (+2.4%), stop $166.59 (−7.4%), A.R:R -1.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QCOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $183.15 (+2.2% upside). Target $183.15 (+2.4%), stop $166.59 (−7.4%), A.R:R -1.6:1. Stop-loss: $166.59.

What are the risks of investing in QCOM?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Concentration risk — Customer: Apple; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is QCOM overvalued or undervalued?

QUALCOMM Incorporated trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about QCOM?

46 analysts cover QCOM with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $150.

What does QUALCOMM Incorporated do?Qualcomm develops and commercializes semiconductor platforms (Snapdragon) for mobile, automotive, and IoT through its...

Qualcomm develops and commercializes semiconductor platforms (Snapdragon) for mobile, automotive, and IoT through its QCT segment, and licenses cellular and wireless IP through its QTL segment, globally. Revenue comes from chip sales and IP royalties, with significant concentration in Chinese OEMs and Apple as leading customers.

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