QUALCOMM combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 with a PEG of 0.94, but the stock trades well above analyst price targets implying -23.9% downside, and recent news from an analyst cluster of 3 has not been sufficient to resolve the negative asymmetry.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Business Fundamentals→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Above Target Negative Asymmetry↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 5, 2025· older than 90 days
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Semiconductors
Wait for pullback to $164.09. At $173.19 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $164.09 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and licenses cellular IP through its QCT and QTL segments. Revenue comes from chip sales to OEM device manufacturers and royalties from global licensees for... Read more
Wait for pullback to $164.09. At $173.19 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $164.09 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (2.4% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
Qualcomm's fabless semiconductor operation produces Snapdragon and Dragonwing chip platforms through a limited number of third-party foundries, selling into mobile, automotive, and IoT end markets via the QCT semiconductor segment while licensing foundational cellular IP through QTL. For calendar year 2025, the company estimated smartphone demand would remain approximately flat relative to 2024, with mid single-digit percentage growth in 5G handsets. A significant portion of QCT revenues comes from a concentrated group of Chinese OEMs.
Qualcomm generates revenue through QCT chip sales to device manufacturers and QTL royalties from hundreds of licensees holding patents on 3G/4G/5G cellular technologies. QCT sells Snapdragon platforms across product tiers — from entry-level devices in emerging markets to premium-tier 5G smartphones — with higher margins on integrated modem-and-application-processor products than on the MDM thin modem products Apple purchases. The fabless model means Qualcomm relies on a limited number of third-party suppliers for procurement, manufacture, assembly, and testing — a dependency the 10-K flags as a material risk. Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi are among the named OEM customers that have developed or are developing their own integrated circuit alternatives. QTL royalties depend on licensees' device volumes, and several Chinese OEMs account for a significant portion of QTL revenue; Chinese government policies on capital outflows have at times delayed royalty payments.
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The 10-K documents a specific dated regulatory action: in May 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce revoked Qualcomm's export license for 4G and certain other integrated circuit products sold to Huawei, one of China's largest smartphone OEMs, eliminating that revenue source. The company further discloses that Chinese government policies prioritizing semiconductor self-sufficiency may encourage additional OEMs to develop proprietary chips. If trade restrictions expand to additional Chinese customers or Chinese licensees delay royalty payments, both QCT and QTL revenues could be simultaneously harmed.
See also: Technology · Semiconductors
From QUALCOMM Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — QUALCOMM Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Qualcomm Shares Lose Signal: What’s Going On? — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 negative
- NEWS Qualcomm shares slide as smartphone weakness clouds growth push - Reuters — Reuters Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Qualcomm stock drops 7% on weak earnings forecast as memory shortage weighs on smartphone sales - CNBC — CNBC Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS QUALCOMM drops 12% as tech stocks fall (QCOM:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Qualcomm shares may move 8% on Nov. 4 earnings release - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicChina10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our business is concentrated in China'
- MEDIUMCustomersmall number of customers and licensees10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our revenues from a small number of customers and licensees, and particularly from their sale of premium-tier handset devices'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of third-party suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a limited number of third-party suppliers for the procurement, manufacture, assembly and testing of our products manufactured in a fabless production model'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -4.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $164.09. At $173.19 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $164.09 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (2.4% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $177.33 (+2.4%), stop $155.57 (−11.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $177.33 (+2.4% upside). Target $177.33 (+2.4%), stop $155.57 (−11.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $155.57.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.
QUALCOMM Incorporated trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
46 analysts rate QCOM, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 29 analysts publish price targets averaging $197.
What does QUALCOMM Incorporated do?Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and...
Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and licenses cellular IP through its QCT and QTL segments. Revenue comes from chip sales to OEM device manufacturers and royalties from global licensees for foundational 3G/4G/5G patents. The company's IP portfolio spans technologies embedded in virtually all modern cellular standards.