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QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. At $199.09, A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers and licensees.

Qualcomm is a global semiconductor and licensing company operating through QCT (chips for mobile, automotive, IoT) and QTL (patent licensing for cellular technologies). It earns revenue from selling integrated circuit platforms—primarily Snapdragon SoCs—to device manufacturers,... Read more

$199.09+19.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#13 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.47%
IncomeYield1.81%(5y avg 2.13%)Payout38.28%sustainable
Stop $189.39Target $242.94(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$175.97-11.6%31 analysts
$242.94our TP
$199.09price
$175.97mean
$100
$300

Sell if holding. At $199.09, A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers and licensees. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — QUALCOMM Incorporated

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China
Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers and licensees
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.9
P/E (Fwd)19.1
Mkt Cap$214.6B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn22.3%
ROE36.1%
Rev Growth-3.5%
Beta1.49
Dividend1.81%
Rating analysts48

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$126-36.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our business is concentrated in China, and the risks of such concentration are exacerbated by U.S./China trade and national security tensions.'
  • HIGHCustomersmall number of customers and licensees
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our revenues from a small number of customers and licensees, and particularly from their sale of premium-tier handset devices.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $132.05Resistance $247.90

Price Targets

$189
$243
A.Upside+22.0%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QCOM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $199.09, A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers and licensees. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $189.39. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QCOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $242.94 (+19.3% upside). Prior stop was $189.39. Stop-loss: $189.39.

What are the risks of investing in QCOM?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers and licensees; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is QCOM overvalued or undervalued?

QUALCOMM Incorporated trades at a P/E of 21.9 (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QCOM?

48 analysts cover QCOM with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $176.

What does QUALCOMM Incorporated do?Qualcomm is a global semiconductor and licensing company operating through QCT (chips for mobile, automotive, IoT) and...

Qualcomm is a global semiconductor and licensing company operating through QCT (chips for mobile, automotive, IoT) and QTL (patent licensing for cellular technologies). It earns revenue from selling integrated circuit platforms—primarily Snapdragon SoCs—to device manufacturers, and from royalties paid by hundreds of licensees on their cellular device sales. Apple is flagged as a large customer expected to increasingly use its own modem, posing a material future revenue risk.

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