QUALCOMM combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 with a PEG of 0.94, but the stock trades well above analyst price targets implying -23.9% downside, and recent news from an analyst cluster of 3 has not been sufficient to resolve the negative asymmetry.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Business Fundamentals→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Above Target Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Technology · Semiconductors
Wait for pullback to $159.55. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $166.88. Engine's entry $159.55 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-72.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -1473.2%).
Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and licenses cellular IP through its QCT and QTL segments. Revenue comes from chip sales to OEM device manufacturers and royalties from global licensees for... Read more
Wait for pullback to $159.55. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $166.88. Engine's entry $159.55 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-72.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -1473.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
Qualcomm's fabless semiconductor operation produces Snapdragon and Dragonwing chip platforms through a limited number of third-party foundries, selling into mobile, automotive, and IoT end markets via the QCT semiconductor segment while licensing foundational cellular IP through QTL. For calendar year 2025, the company estimated smartphone demand would remain approximately flat relative to 2024, with mid single-digit percentage growth in 5G handsets. A significant portion of QCT revenues comes from a concentrated group of Chinese OEMs.
Qualcomm generates revenue through QCT chip sales to device manufacturers and QTL royalties from hundreds of licensees holding patents on 3G/4G/5G cellular technologies. QCT sells Snapdragon platforms across product tiers — from entry-level devices in emerging markets to premium-tier 5G smartphones — with higher margins on integrated modem-and-application-processor products than on the MDM thin modem products Apple purchases. The fabless model means Qualcomm relies on a limited number of third-party suppliers for procurement, manufacture, assembly, and testing — a dependency the 10-K flags as a material risk. Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi are among the named OEM customers that have developed or are developing their own integrated circuit alternatives. QTL royalties depend on licensees' device volumes, and several Chinese OEMs account for a significant portion of QTL revenue; Chinese government policies on capital outflows have at times delayed royalty payments.
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The 10-K documents a specific dated regulatory action: in May 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce revoked Qualcomm's export license for 4G and certain other integrated circuit products sold to Huawei, one of China's largest smartphone OEMs, eliminating that revenue source. The company further discloses that Chinese government policies prioritizing semiconductor self-sufficiency may encourage additional OEMs to develop proprietary chips. If trade restrictions expand to additional Chinese customers or Chinese licensees delay royalty payments, both QCT and QTL revenues could be simultaneously harmed.
See also: Technology · Semiconductors
From QUALCOMM Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — QUALCOMM Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Qualcomm Plots Entry in Data Center Market, Working With Hyperscaler - WSJ — WSJ positive
- NEWS Qualcomm shares soar 16% on CEO comments about China orders, hyperscaler customer - CNBC — CNBC positive
- NEWS Why Qualcomm’s stock is soaring even in the face of a weak outlook - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS Qualcomm surges despite Q2 results featuring 13% decline in handset revenue - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Qualcomm's TikTok AI Chip Deal Rewrites the Rules - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-07-27T11:13:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicChina10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our business is concentrated in China'
- MEDIUMCustomersmall number of customers and licensees10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our revenues from a small number of customers and licensees, and particularly from their sale of premium-tier handset devices'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of third-party suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a limited number of third-party suppliers for the procurement, manufacture, assembly and testing of our products manufactured in a fabless production model'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $159.55. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $166.88. Engine's entry $159.55 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-72.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -1473.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $203.53 (+22.0%), stop $148.38 (−12.5%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $203.53 (+21.9% upside). Target $203.53 (+22.0%), stop $148.38 (−12.5%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $148.38.
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-72.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -1473.2%).
QUALCOMM Incorporated trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
48 analysts cover QCOM with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $221.
What does QUALCOMM Incorporated do?Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and...
Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and licenses cellular IP through its QCT and QTL segments. Revenue comes from chip sales to OEM device manufacturers and royalties from global licensees for foundational 3G/4G/5G patents. The company's IP portfolio spans technologies embedded in virtually all modern cellular standards.