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PEBPebblebrook Hotel TrustSell4.4·$18.72-0.32%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust trades above analyst resistance targets with a quality score of 1.8 and short interest of 19%, while an exceptionally high dividend yield is flagged as unsustainable, making the risk/reward unattractive despite strong recent price momentum.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Quality ThresholdStable
  • High Short Interest SignalStable
  • Yield Trap Dividend SafetyStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is a publicly traded real estate investment trust and the largest owner of urban and resort lifestyle hotels in the United States. The Company owns 43 hotels, totaling approximately 10,900 guest rooms across 13 urban and resort markets. Pebblebrook Hotel... Read more

$18.72+3.8% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#9 of 12 REIT - Hotel & Motel
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield12.36%
IncomeYield0.21%(5y avg 0.28%)Payout126.37%
Stop $17.39Target $19.36(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$16.68-10.9%15 analysts
$19.36our TP
$18.72price
$16.68mean
$12
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — Pebblebrook Hotel Trust

Generated 2026-07-07T11:41:57Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: hotels and resorts
Target reached (-19.5% upside)
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-61.2
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn-3.5%
ROE-1.8%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta1.40
Dividend0.21%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyhotels and resorts
    10-K Item 1A: 'Due to our exclusive focus on hotels and resorts, and our concentration in hotel investments primarily in major gateway urban and resort markets, a downturn in the lodging industry generally or regional downturns in the markets in which we operate would adversely affect our operations and financial condition.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-02Item 5.02LOW
    Trustee Ron E. Jackson's previously-disclosed retirement from the Board took effect at the May 29, 2026 annual meeting; board size decreased to seven trustees. Planned, non-executive departure with no successor sought.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Gross Margin
1.0
Operating Margin
1.8
Current Ratio
2.4
Moat
3.6
Piotroski F
4.4
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.7
Short Interest
1.6
Days To Cover
3.6
Volatility
4.1
Debt Equity
5.2
Beta
5.4
High short interest justified: 19%Elevated put/call: 2.00High IV: 76%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings History
5.6
Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.73Resistance $19.75

Price Targets

$17
$19
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PEB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $17.39. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PEB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.36 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $17.39. Stop-loss: $17.39.

What are the risks of investing in PEB?

Concentration risk — Property Type: hotels and resorts; Target reached (-19.5% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is PEB overvalued or undervalued?

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -61.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PEB?

22 analysts cover PEB with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Pebblebrook Hotel Trust do?Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is a publicly traded real estate investment trust and the largest owner of urban and resort...

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is a publicly traded real estate investment trust and the largest owner of urban and resort lifestyle hotels in the United States. The Company owns 43 hotels, totaling approximately 10,900 guest rooms across 13 urban and resort markets. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is based in Bethesda, United States. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust was established in October, 02 2009 and incorporated in Maryland.

Related stocks: HST (Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.) · SHO (Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. ) · DRH (Diamondrock Hospitality Company) · RHP (Ryman Hospitality Properties, I) · XHR (Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.)
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