Skip to main content

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. At $69.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%).

Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma, providing financial products to businesses and consumers through its Prosperity Bank subsidiary. Revenue is primarily net interest income on a diversified loan portfolio spanning commercial real... Read more

$69.25+0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#132 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $66.16Target $69.59(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$77.38+11.7%13 analysts
$69.59our TP
$69.25price
$77.38mean
$85

Sell if holding. At $69.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma
Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$7.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn43.4%
ROE7.2%
Rev Growth3.3%
Beta0.67
Dividend3.43%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV36%normal
Max Pain$60-13.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas and Oklahoma
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's success depends primarily on the general economic conditions of the primary markets in Texas and Oklahoma in which it operates and where its loans are concentrated.'
  • HIGHTenantreal estate loan portfolio80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 80.0% of the Company's total loans as of December 31, 2025, consisted of loans included in the real estate loan portfolio'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.3
Earnings Growth
3.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.4
Value Rank
2.8
Quality Rank
5.3
Best-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $66.19Resistance $71.01

Price Targets

$66
$70
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.5% upside)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $69.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $66.16. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.59 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $66.16. Stop-loss: $66.16.

What are the risks of investing in PB?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is PB overvalued or undervalued?

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PB?

23 analysts cover PB with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $77.

What does Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. do?Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma, providing financial products to...

Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma, providing financial products to businesses and consumers through its Prosperity Bank subsidiary. Revenue is primarily net interest income on a diversified loan portfolio spanning commercial real estate, residential, and construction. The Bank has been profitable every year of its existence, including during periods of adverse economic conditions in Texas and Oklahoma.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · VLYPO (Valley National Bancorp - 5.5% ) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · VLYPP (Valley National Bancorp - 6.25%) · FIBK (First Interstate BancSystem, In)