Prosperity Bancshares is in a confirmed breakout with golden cross and MACD bullish, has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and trades at a PEG of 0.32 — but the stock has already surpassed its analyst target, leaving negative upside of 4.7% and limiting near-term entry appeal.
Thesis pillars
- 40 Pct Net Margin Peer Leader→Stable
- Golden Cross Technical Breakout→Stable
- Earnings Beat Value Combination↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Wait for pullback to $64.44. At $65.95 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $64.44 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma.
Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 full-service banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma through Prosperity Bank, offering loans, deposits, trust, and wealth management to consumers and businesses. The bank held $21.81 billion in total loans at December 31, 2025, with an... Read more
Wait for pullback to $64.44. At $65.95 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $64.44 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.
About Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.
Prosperity Bancshares held $21.81 billion in total loans as of December 31, 2025, operating 283 full-service banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma, with the Federal Reserve Board as primary holding company supervisor. The bank maintained 804,300 separate deposit accounts with an average cost of deposits of 1.37% in 2025, and noninterest-bearing demand deposits represented 33.2% of total deposits—a low-cost funding profile that has supported the company's consistent profitability.
Prosperity Bank earns primarily through net interest income on a loan portfolio that was 80% real estate-secured at year-end 2025, with residential real estate including home equity at 37.9%, commercial real estate including farmland and multifamily at 29.5%, and construction and land loans at 12.6%. Commercial and industrial loans represent 10.6% of the portfolio. Fee revenue supplements interest income through trust services ($2.89 billion in assets under administration, of which $2.40 billion are managed), retail brokerage, and mortgage services. The company has grown through acquisition, adding LegacyTexas Bank in 2019, FirstCapital Bank of Texas in 2023, and Lone Star State Bank of West Texas in 2024. American Bank and Texas Partners Bank both merged into the company in early 2026, and a pending Stellar Bancorp transaction valued at approximately $2.00 billion was announced January 28, 2026.
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Prosperity Bancshares' loan performance and collateral values are tied almost entirely to Texas and Oklahoma, where the 10-K states the company's success depends primarily on economic conditions in those states and where its loans are concentrated. Energy production represents a large part of those states' economies, and funded oil and gas commitments represented 2.0% of total loans at December 31, 2025, excluding warehouse loans—a modest direct exposure that could compound with broader Texas economic stress during an oil price downturn. The pending Stellar Bancorp merger, which adds 52 banking offices in greater Houston and Beaumont, would deepen this single-geography profile further.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-08Recent Developments — Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PROSPERITY BANCSHARES, INC.® INVITES YOU TO JOIN ITS THIRD QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS PROSPERITY BANCSHARES, INC.® INVITES YOU TO JOIN ITS THIRD QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com neutral
- NEWS Prosperity Bancshares stock reports Q2 growth at EUR 41.10, minus 0.24% - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS neutral
- NEWS Prosperity Bancshares stock reports Q2 growth at EUR 41.10, minus 0.24% - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de neutral
- NEWS Bernstein cuts PB Fintech share price target by 53%. More pressure after Rs 37,000 m-cap rout? - The Economic Times — The Economic Times negative
Generated 2026-10-08T11:32:06Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loan portfolio80%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 80.0% of the Company's total loans as of December 31, 2025, consisted of loans included in the real estate loan portfolio'
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioresidential real estate loans38%10-K Item 1A: '37.9% in residential real estate (including home equity)'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans30%10-K Item 1A: '29.5% in commercial real estate (including farmland and multifamily residential)'
- HIGHGeographicTexas and Oklahoma10-K Item 1A: 'success depends primarily on the general economic conditions of the primary markets in Texas and Oklahoma ... where its loans are concentrated'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $64.44. At $65.95 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $64.44 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $70.14 (+6.4%), stop $61.94 (−6.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $70.14 (+6.3% upside). Target $70.14 (+6.4%), stop $61.94 (−6.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $61.94.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Thin upside margin: 6.3%.
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
23 analysts cover PB with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $81.
What does Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. do?Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 full-service banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma through Prosperity Bank,...
Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 full-service banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma through Prosperity Bank, offering loans, deposits, trust, and wealth management to consumers and businesses. The bank held $21.81 billion in total loans at December 31, 2025, with an average cost of deposits of 1.37% and trust assets of $2.89 billion. The company has remained profitable every year since inception through disciplined community banking and acquisitions.