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PBProsperity Bancshares, Inc.Hold6.2·$69.58+0.32%
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Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Prosperity Bancshares is a Texas bank holding company operating 283 full-service offices in Texas and Oklahoma, serving individuals and businesses through Prosperity Bank. It earns net interest income from a largely real estate-focused loan portfolio ($21.8B total loans) and fee... Read more

$69.58-1.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#35 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.42%(5y avg 3.19%)Payout42.83%sustainable
Stop $66.86Target $68.70(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$77.92+12.0%13 analysts
$68.70our TP
$69.58price
$77.92mean
$85

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$7.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn40.4%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth19.9%
Beta0.66
Dividend3.42%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$60-13.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loans80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 80.0% of the Company’s total loans as of December 31, 2025, consisted of loans included in the real estate loan portfolio'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolio1-4 family residential mortgage loans38%
    10-K Item 1: 'commercial real estate (including farmland and multi-family residential); 1-4 family residential (including home equity); and construction, land development and other land loans comprising 29.5%, 37.9% and 12.6%, respectively, of the Company’s total loans'
  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas and Oklahoma
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company’s success depends primarily on the general economic conditions of the primary markets in Texas and Oklahoma in which it operates and where its loans are concentrated.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.90Resistance $70.10

Price Targets

$67
$69
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $68.70 (-1.3%), stop $66.86 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.70 (-1.3% upside). Target $68.70 (-1.3%), stop $66.86 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $66.86.

What are the risks of investing in PB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Is PB overvalued or undervalued?

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PB?

22 analysts cover PB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $78.

What does Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. do?Prosperity Bancshares is a Texas bank holding company operating 283 full-service offices in Texas and Oklahoma, serving...

Prosperity Bancshares is a Texas bank holding company operating 283 full-service offices in Texas and Oklahoma, serving individuals and businesses through Prosperity Bank. It earns net interest income from a largely real estate-focused loan portfolio ($21.8B total loans) and fee income from trust and wealth management services.

Related stocks: NIC (Nicolet Bankshares Inc.) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.)
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