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Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Prosperity Bancshares is a Texas bank holding company operating 283 full-service offices in Texas and Oklahoma, serving individuals and businesses through Prosperity Bank. It earns net interest income from a largely real estate-focused loan portfolio ($21.8B total loans) and fee... Read more

$68.68+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#63 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.50%(5y avg 3.18%)Payout42.83%sustainable
Stop $65.72Target $69.52(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$77.92+13.5%13 analysts
$69.52our TP
$68.68price
$77.92mean
$85

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$6.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn40.4%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth19.9%
Beta0.67
Dividend3.50%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$60-12.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loans80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 80.0% of the Company’s total loans as of December 31, 2025, consisted of loans included in the real estate loan portfolio'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolio1-4 family residential mortgage loans38%
    10-K Item 1: 'commercial real estate (including farmland and multi-family residential); 1-4 family residential (including home equity); and construction, land development and other land loans comprising 29.5%, 37.9% and 12.6%, respectively, of the Company’s total loans'
  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas and Oklahoma
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company’s success depends primarily on the general economic conditions of the primary markets in Texas and Oklahoma in which it operates and where its loans are concentrated.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.5
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.90Resistance $70.94

Price Targets

$66
$70
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.2% upside)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $69.52 (+1.2%), stop $65.72 (−4.5%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.52 (+1.3% upside). Target $69.52 (+1.2%), stop $65.72 (−4.5%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $65.72.

What are the risks of investing in PB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Is PB overvalued or undervalued?

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PB?

22 analysts cover PB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $78.

What does Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. do?Prosperity Bancshares is a Texas bank holding company operating 283 full-service offices in Texas and Oklahoma, serving...

Prosperity Bancshares is a Texas bank holding company operating 283 full-service offices in Texas and Oklahoma, serving individuals and businesses through Prosperity Bank. It earns net interest income from a largely real estate-focused loan portfolio ($21.8B total loans) and fee income from trust and wealth management services.

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