Should you buy Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR)?
Updated
Par Pacific Holdings offers deep value in oil refining with a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG of 0.40, though consecutive earnings misses and high short interest at 13% cap near-term conviction until momentum recovers.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Par Pacific delivers a return on equity of 33%, ranking superior to peers and signaling above-average capital efficiency despite operating in a commodity-driven industry. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 20% over the next four quarters as capital allocation discipline is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh ROE in refining can collapse rapidly during crack spread compression, which is not captured in trailing figures. | ||
At a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG ratio of 0.40, Par Pacific trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value, providing a 22% analyst upside with a margin of safety around 60%. Valuation breakdown | Price closes the gap toward the analyst target of $65.25 over 12 months as the discount is recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterRefining margins are cyclical and the low multiple may reflect sustained structural headwinds rather than temporary mispricing. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 61%, including a 203% beat, suggesting underlying earnings power that recent misses may understate. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, improving the beat ratio above 50%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two recent consecutive misses suggest estimates may not yet have adjusted to lower refining margins, risking further disappointments. | ||
Par Pacific delivers a return on equity of 33%, ranking superior to peers and signaling above-average capital efficiency despite operating in a commodity-driven industry.
→Stable- Expectation
- ROE remains above 20% over the next four quarters as capital allocation discipline is maintained.
CounterHigh ROE in refining can collapse rapidly during crack spread compression, which is not captured in trailing figures.
At a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG ratio of 0.40, Par Pacific trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value, providing a 22% analyst upside with a margin of safety around 60%.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price closes the gap toward the analyst target of $65.25 over 12 months as the discount is recognized.
CounterRefining margins are cyclical and the low multiple may reflect sustained structural headwinds rather than temporary mispricing.
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 61%, including a 203% beat, suggesting underlying earnings power that recent misses may understate.
→Stable- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, improving the beat ratio above 50%.
CounterThe two recent consecutive misses suggest estimates may not yet have adjusted to lower refining margins, risking further disappointments.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
The stock sits above its 200-day moving average with strong Bollinger and support/resistance scores, suggesting a technical floor around $50.94 that limits downside.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price holds above $50.94 support level over the next 12 months without a sustained break below that floor.
CounterWith negative price momentum and a failed momentum gate, the technical support may give way if broader refining sector selling pressure intensifies.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG ratio of 0.40, Par Pacific trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value, providing a 22% analyst upside with a margin of safety around 60%.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $55 for 2 consecutive months, eliminating the margin of safety.
- P2Par Pacific delivers a return on equity of 33%, ranking superior to peers and signaling above-average capital efficiency despite operating in a commodity-driven industry.
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling deteriorating capital efficiency.
- P3The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 61%, including a 203% beat, suggesting underlying earnings power that recent misses may understate.
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 10% in 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming a structural shortfall.
- P4The stock sits above its 200-day moving average with strong Bollinger and support/resistance scores, suggesting a technical floor around $50.94 that limits downside.
Trip ifPrice drops below $50.94 support level and holds below that level for more than 5 trading days.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.8/10 at $52.84. None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) cleared their gates — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals rather than directional conviction.
The dominant failed gate is momentum at 4.1 vs threshold 4.5. SELL flips back toward HOLD if momentum recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5.
On the bull side: Attractive valuation; Margin of safety: 61%; Analyst upside: 24%. On the bear side: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Active engine warnings: L3:NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING, V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $52.84, with structural invalidation at $48.96. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 3.41 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates PARR — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Attractive valuation
- ▸Margin of safety: 61%
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Bear case
- ▸Consecutive earnings misses (2)