Should you buy Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific (PAC)?
Updated
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico delivers top-tier operating metrics with a 38% return on equity, 30% net margins, and strong price momentum, but the stock is already above its analyst price target, free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, and two consecutive earnings misses raise execution concerns.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico earns a return on equity of 38% and net margins of 30%, both in the top tier for the industrials sector, reflecting strong pricing power and operational efficiency across its airport network. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins hold above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterAirport concession operators' margins are partly determined by regulatory rate-setting bodies rather than management decisions; regulatory changes to airport fees could compress margins significantly without operational offset. | ||
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, RSI at 53, and a bullish MACD continuation setup, indicating positive price momentum supported by accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for at least 3 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already above analyst consensus targets; if earnings disappoint again after the 2 recent misses, momentum buyers will exit and the accumulation pattern could reverse quickly. | ||
Two consecutive earnings misses — a negative 32% surprise in February 2026 and a negative 0.7% miss in October 2025 — indicate execution variability that may signal structural issues with passenger volumes or currency-related revenue translation. Earnings | The company returns to an earnings beat in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with negative surprise no greater than 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe April 2026 quarter delivered a 24.4% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may be episodic rather than structural and could be driven by currency or timing factors. | ||
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico earns a return on equity of 38% and net margins of 30%, both in the top tier for the industrials sector, reflecting strong pricing power and operational efficiency across its airport network.
→Stable- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins hold above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterAirport concession operators' margins are partly determined by regulatory rate-setting bodies rather than management decisions; regulatory changes to airport fees could compress margins significantly without operational offset.
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, RSI at 53, and a bullish MACD continuation setup, indicating positive price momentum supported by accumulation.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for at least 3 consecutive months.
CounterThe stock is already above analyst consensus targets; if earnings disappoint again after the 2 recent misses, momentum buyers will exit and the accumulation pattern could reverse quickly.
Two consecutive earnings misses — a negative 32% surprise in February 2026 and a negative 0.7% miss in October 2025 — indicate execution variability that may signal structural issues with passenger volumes or currency-related revenue translation.
→Stable- Expectation
- The company returns to an earnings beat in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with negative surprise no greater than 5%.
CounterThe April 2026 quarter delivered a 24.4% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may be episodic rather than structural and could be driven by currency or timing factors.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
Free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, a red-flag level that suggests significant capital expenditure or working capital demands are consuming the majority of reported earnings, reducing actual cash available for distribution or debt repayment.
→Stable- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves above 50% within 4 reporting periods as airport expansion programs reach completion.
CounterAirport operators in growth phases regularly convert low percentages of net income into free cash flow due to concession investment requirements; this is a known structural feature of airport expansion cycles, not an impairment signal.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico earns a return on equity of 38% and net margins of 30%, both in the top tier for the industrials sector, reflecting strong pricing power and operational efficiency across its airport network.
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P2The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, RSI at 53, and a bullish MACD continuation setup, indicating positive price momentum supported by accumulation.
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume falls for 6 or more consecutive weeks.
- P3Two consecutive earnings misses — a negative 32% surprise in February 2026 and a negative 0.7% miss in October 2025 — indicate execution variability that may signal structural issues with passenger volumes or currency-related revenue translation.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, a red-flag level that suggests significant capital expenditure or working capital demands are consuming the majority of reported earnings, reducing actual cash available for distribution or debt repayment.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion remains below 15% of net income for 3 consecutive reporting periods.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific (PAC) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with high conviction, score 5.4/10 at $255.46. The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. Asymmetry R:R of -0.59 is supplementary context, not the trigger.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $255.46, with structural invalidation at $239.03. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is -0.15 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
On the bull side: High-quality business. On the bear side: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Active engine warnings: V8: Target reached (-8.2% upside), V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE.
The dominant failed gate is reward-to-risk (NEGATIVE). SELL flips back toward HOLD if reward-to-risk recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates PAC — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸High-quality business
Bear case
- ▸Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- ▸Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5
- ▸Consecutive earnings misses (2)